@Tom73 I just nudged up my RL ASX position to 1.0% at $0.16. (I don't know where the options are at, as I didn't participate in the CR.)

I know I am being a little timid here (compared with my other speculative bets) however, I just can't shake that gnawing concern that even though the trial is well-powered, and the multiple Phase 2 results look good, that we could get a significant response in the placebo arm, and that the probability of an inconclusive results at the interim stage is higher than might be considered on the basis of a simple read-through from Phase 2. (That's the risk with subjective pain perception end points.)

If there is a strong positive signal at the interim read-out, I fully expect the SP to pop (a lot), but my thinking is that the upside here is so great that even paying up on that event, it will still make sense on a risk-adjusted basis.

So I am going to leave my current chips on the table, and focus my effort on what "good enough" needs to look like for me in the Phase 3 Interim readout, to add 2x or 3x at that stage. It will be important to form my own view on the quantitative results on the day, and not be unduly swayed by how management describe them. So, the "to do" on my work list is to develop my "go-no-go" criteria, for the interim result.

So all eyes on September.

Disc: Held