0348 GMT - Morgan Stanley expects the lithium market to remain tight in the near term. China's battery electric vehicle sales rebounded sharply in May, rising 13% on month, says the bank. MS also highlights strong growth in global energy-storage system shipments and truck electrification momentum in China. Lithium supply is, however, also anticipated to pick up, supported by increased prices. MS highlights the resumption of lithium exports from Zimbabwe and some Australian mine restarts, while adding that brownfield expansions are also beginning to emerge. It remains equal-weight on Australia's PLS, which it prefers over peer IGO. MS has an underweight rating on IGO, citing risks to the Greenbushes life-of-mine plan and CGP3 ramp-up. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0018 GMT - Evolution Mining shares appear to have pulled back "to a more reasonable valuation" following the gold producer's disappointing 3Q result, Macquarie says. The bank upgrades the stock to outperform from neutral but lowers its target to A$13.00/share from A$14.00. "With updates to our gold and copper price outlooks, we model material increases in EPS" over FY27 and FY28," it says. One risk: While Evolution shares pulled back in line with peers, Northern Star has underperformed more. "Should immediate improvements be made by [Northern Star] management, this could encourage a rotation from Evolution into Northern Star, which we believe offers higher risk/greater leverage," it says. Macquarie reiterates an outperform rating and A$25.00 target on Northern Star. Evolution is down 0.5% at A$12.86. Northern Star is up 1.3% at A$21.05. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0003 GMT - Morgan Stanley reckons investors shouldn't be worried about an earnings hole in Goodman Group in FY27. "We see A$1 billion+ incremental FY27 Ebitda that the Street may be underappreciating," analyst Simon Chan says. Market concerns around Goodman's FY27 earnings reflect some 700 million Australian dollars of profit in FY26 resulting from the sale of land into the company's new European data center JV. MS suggests incremental earnings in FY27 could come from a data center land sale in Melbourne. Goodman could earn performance fees from the Australian Industrial Partnership, a very large fund with some A$18 billion of assets under management. MS also thinks Goodman could profit from selling stakes in some of its more advanced data center projects. It retains an overweight call. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2358 GMT - Frasers Group's bid for Accent Group should provide near-term share-price support for the Australian apparel retailer, according to its former bears at Morgan Stanley. Raising their recommendation to equal-weight from underweight, the investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that the U.K. retailer's zero-premium bid appears opportunistic. They observe that Frasers didn't say its offer was the highest or last it would make. The MS analysts say Frasers's concerns over Accent align with their own, which include weak earnings visibility and pressure on profit margins. MS lifts its target price 36% to 75 Australian cents. Shares are at A$0.75 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2347 GMT - Macquarie downgrades both Rio Tinto and South32 to neutral from outperform, citing recent share gains. Still, the bank raises its price targets on both stocks and continues to prefer Rio Tinto to peer BHP. "We see EPS upgrades across our coverage, owing to stronger coal and base metal prices," Macquarie says. It adds that "sectoral rotations and the upstream AI thematic" may still favor the sector's largest stocks. Rio Tinto is up 29% year to date at A$189.31. Macquarie increases its target by 1.1% to A$188.00. South32 is up 26% year to date at A$4.47. Macquarie's target rises by 2.2% to A$4.60. The bank keeps a neutral rating on BHP and raises its target by 5.7% to A$56.00. BHP is up 43% year to date at A$65.18. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2345 GMT - Aussie Broadband's recent share-price drop has priced in the challenging subscriber growth environment facing the internet service provider, Jefferies analysts say. With an unchanged neutral rating on the stock, they tell clients in a note that competitive pressures are now reflected in the price. They think that risk now skews to the upside if Aussie Broadband can deliver on its FY 2028 ambitions, but aren't confident that it will. Jarden forecasts FY 2028 underlying Ebitda of A$243 million, which is 10% below the company's A$270 million ambition. Jarden keeps a target price of 5.50 Australian dollars on the stock, which is at A$5.27 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2344 GMT - UBS highlights a risk that investors have too narrowly focused on the Middle East conflict's impact on airlines in Australia and New Zealand. The bank highlights that Australia's macro context has incrementally worsened, too. Headwinds include higher inflation, rising interest rates, weaker consumer and business sentiment. These may cause a cyclical movement of the demand curve, UBS says. "We think this type of macro scenario poses a greater risk for Jetstar than the other brands," says analyst Andre Fromyhr. It could explain why capacity at Qantas-owned Jetstar in the December half was lower than a year ago when "not long ago we would have expected Jetstar to grow faster than the other domestic brands," UBS says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

UBS cuts its price target on car dealership Eagers Automotive by 20% to A$22.95/share after incorporating a softer macro outlook through 2027. Eagers has plenty of positive drivers, including its partnership with BYD as electric vehicle demand in Australia accelerates. "That said, we take a more cautious view around the short-term macro backdrop," analyst Tim Plumbe says. Headwinds include interest-rate rises, Middle East disruptions, inflationary pressures, and recent changes to tax incentives risk flowing through to property prices. "We question whether the market is fully considering the substitution effect from electric vehicles on the core business (data suggests weakness for Eagers's underlying portfolio ex. BYD)," UBS says. Its recommendation remains neutral. Eagers ended Monday at A$22.79. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

Luxury car dealership Autosports's customers should be more resilient to the macro headwinds blowing hard right now, but they are not immune, UBS says. Three interest rate hikes this year are likely to be followed by one more in August. Middle East disruptions, inflationary pressures, and recent changes to tax incentives risk flowing through to property prices, UBS says. That could damp the wealth effect and hit consumer demand. "Autosports's electric vehicle greenfields (Zeekr, Polestar, Geely) are generating big order banks, with the benefit flowing through in FY27 and helping offset some of the headwinds," analyst Tim Plumbe says. Combined with a full-year benefit from acquisitions, Autosports's FY27 net profit could rise 4%. UBS keeps a buy call, but cuts its price target by 32% to A$3.35/share. Autosports ended Monday at A$1.905. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

UBS identifies three sources of earnings pressure on pathology specialist Sonic Healthcare right now. Sonic's sale of its Brisbane lab for A$445 million releases capital that Sonic can invest elsewhere in its business. However, analyst David Low says the A$30 million cost of leasing the lab more than offsets savings on interest payments. UBS also points to the Fair Work Commission's ruling of higher wages for health professionals. "We have made allowance for a modest headwind to domestic margins in FY27, rising in FY28 with a full year effect," UBS says. Finally, the bank notes the strong Australian dollar since February, especially against European currencies, is a headwind to earnings. UBS cuts its price target by 7.1% to A$19.60/share. Sonic ended Monday at A$19.94. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

Life360's bull at Jefferies doesn't see any threat to the tracking-app developer from Apple's new AI agent. Analyst Roger Samuel tells clients that Apple's location features still fall short of those offered by dual-listed Life360, which provides an extensive tracking history, location-based alerts, driving behavior insights and emergency services integration. "Siri AI is mainly focused on improving productivity rather than building a dedicated family safety platform," he writes. Samuel adds that app-analytics data shows Life360's user growth reaccelerated to almost 20% in May, which he thinks could help it beat user growth consensus for the June quarter. Jefferies has a buy rating and target price of 26.00 Australian dollars on its ASX-listed stock. Shares are at A$22.08 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires