Have to agree that a tumble feels due. A lot of 'exuberance' about and not much justification, especially when we think about a W shape recovery, a second wave of COVID, or just simply the massive amount of uncertaintity around. I'm particularly concerned about the September-December time period where home loan deferrals/moratoriums end and government stimulus slows down. Will the >400,000 mortgage moratorium/deferrals be transitioned to defaults or will they pay?
Given the price level and lack of earnings it seems there's only one way to go. But so much uncertainity, no-one really has a clue.
I did read this article on the Aussie property market that you might find interesting: https://medium.com/@_C_Leeson/house-prices-where-to-from-here-9bfea12d93fb
@Bear77
Not saying it will...BUT...I want to get your take on what you would do or think will happen to the Stock market if the Property market plummets to Martin North, Steve Keene and Harry Dent (Yank starting a magical fund in Australia) Levels? Say 20% - 30% drop.
Reason for asking is I'm not sure if I should take Profits from Stocks if the Real Estate market dropped 20-30% in Fear of the ASX dropping due to money exiting the ASX and going into property. I'm leaning towards taking stock profits to be safe.
My opinion is SOME of the Retiree money will go into panic buying of real estate due to risk tolerance and Australia's strange love affair with property. The rest will slowly channel back from the ASX into Property causing the Stock market to drop until housing prices rise to a "normal" levels. Essentially both markets will even out and settle down. I'm guessing Government first homeowner grants will be going out once the gov decides on how much they can afford. Interest rates will start to rise. Retiree/Investors money return to banks in the form of Long Term Deposits. Then we hopefully see the slow return of a bull market and a repeat of the bubble process.
Very general, Boiled down version and missing a lot of variables.
All opinions welcome!
Well summarised Bear77. Normality probably won't return until a vaccine is found and majority are innoculated which could be early 2021. History shows market performance being correlated with uneployment numbers. This time the market appears to be indfferent to the looming unemployment numbers. This decoupling suggests a quick recovery is predicted however I personally think it will drag on for a atleast the rest of 2020.
I feel a tumble coming.
Little too much Confidence in the air.
I got cash and my trigger finger ready.
Lesson learned from March was ALL trading platform are useless when it...hits the fan!