Forum Topics Thoughts on FLT?
Curly
Added 6 years ago

Bear, or anyone else, can you confirm the number of shares before and after for Webjet? According to CMC it went from 187 to 339, an 80% increase. However I had it in my mind that it was more like 150%. And I thought my holding increased by 170%.

I reduced at 4.00,  because I needed cash for other investments and to reduce exposure due to the higher risks. Not in a hurry to sell the rest though, I still like the long term and wouldn't be surprised to see an acquisition if the right opportunity comes along. Will probably reduce at 5 and 6 if that occurs soon. 

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Bear77
Added 6 years ago

Yeah - no worries. It's actually worse than we had assumed. The way you work it out is just look at all of their Appendix 2A announcements. They have to issue a 2A every time they issue shares, and each one tells you both how many shares they've issued, and then down in section 5.1 they also tell you what the new share count is (total shares on issue). In the case of WEB, the App 2A's that they released on April 9th and 24th tell the story. They had 135.6m shares on issue before the CR (capital raising) - 135,601,009 shares to be exact, and they issued a total of 203,401,514 new shares in April, giving them a new total shares outstanding count now of 339,002,523, so around 339 million shares now. They have increased their share count by exactly 150%, so they now have 2.5 times the shares on issue that they had before the CR. In the case of FLT, they have increased their share count by 96.7% from 101,139,424 shares to 198,904,945 shares according to their Appendix 2A on March 3rd (giving us their baseline, or starting point before the CR) and the one on May 8th which was after the completion of the retail component of their CR - which was the last part of the raising. So, to summarise, WEB have increased their share count in the past couple of months by 150% and FLT have increased theirs by 96.7%.

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Bear77
Added 6 years ago

Yeah - about what I've written below. It's not worse than you thought Curly. It's exactly what you thought (+150%). If your holding increased by 170% it would likely be because you applied for shares in excess of your offer/entitlement and got some of those extra shares. WEB said on April 23rd: "The Retail Entitlement Offer closed on Tuesday, 21 April 2020 and raised approximately A$118 million. It was sent to 24,060 eligible security holders and Webjet received 12,633 valid applications from eligible retail shareholders for their entitlements under the Retail Entitlement Offer, for approximately 50.4 million shares aggregating to approximately A$86 million, implying a take-up rate by eligible retail shareholders of approximately 72.7%. Webjet also received, under the top up facility, eligible applications from 8,324 retail investors for approximately 27.5 million additional new shares in excess of their entitlement (up to a maximum of 100% of their entitlement) aggregating to approximately A$46.7 million. As this exceeds the size of the Retail Entitlement Offer shortfall, a scale back will be applied. No shortfall shares will be issued to underwriters and/or sub-underwriters." And in relation to their scale back policy: "It has been necessary to scale back applications for approximately 27.5 million additional shares applied for under the top-up facility. All eligible applications for additional new shares will be scaled back by approximately 31%. The scale back will be done on a pro-rata basis across all applications. Refunds totalling approximately $14.5 million in respect of scaled back applications under the top-up facility will be dispatched to retail shareholders as soon as practicable. In light of COVID-19 restrictions and recently announced postal delays, Webjet will pay refunds directly to the bank account provided by each relevant shareholder for dividend payments. If a bank account has not been provided, the refund will be paid by cheque sent by ordinary post to the address recorded on the share register as soon as practicable." Hope that covers everything.

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Biz24
Added 6 years ago

Thoughts on Purchasing FLT or WEB or Both or None?

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Bear77
Added 6 years ago

Hi Biz24 - Watch today's episode of "The Call" on Ausbiz - copy and paste the following link into your browser: https://www.ausbiz.com.au/media/the-call-tuesday-26th-may?videoId=1413 They start by talking about WEB, and they talk about FLT a couple of minutes later (after AFG). However, they failed to realise that everything they said about FLT applies equally to WEB. WEB had a massive capital raising, and their share count has now doubled, therefore if the WEB share price gets back to $4.98, they will have the same market capitalisation (market value) as they did at their Feb high of $9.96. If you want to use their Jan high of $10.48, then $5.24 would be the equivalent level now that they have twice as many shares on issue. They closed today at $4.40. However, while WEB might be bigger and better than they were in January one day, it won't be one day this year, and probably not next year either. WEB have said that even with that massive capital raising, they still have enough debt that they need things to be back to normal by December or they're going to be in trouble again. In other words, if we get a second wave of infection in countries that look to be heading out the other side of this, particularly Australia, they could still be in trouble. WEB's WebBeds division is the 2nd largest supplier of lodging to the travel industry. The company has operations in Australia, New Zealand, North America, Singapore and Hong Kong. North America and Hong Kong could be problematic, for different reasons. All I'm saying is that WEB looked too risky to me below $3, although if you wanted to take a punt on them, that was the time to do it (in March/April this year). However, at over $4, you've got pretty limited upside for a year or two I would imagine, and plenty of downside risk. Regarding FLT, use the link and watch today's "The Call". They cover it reasonably well. Much better than they covered WEB. They stuffed that up royally. They completely forgot about the CR (capital raising) resulted in the number of shares on issue doubling and kept taking about where the share price was now in relation to where it was at the beginning of the year as though that represented potential upside. It clearly does not. They managed to remember that with FLT, but not with WEB. In a nutshell, same thing applies to both. There's limited upside in the near term from here, because there are so many more shares on issue now and FLT have had a good run already, so the easy money has been made. But the risks remain. Of the two, if I was forced to choose (at gunpoint you understand), I'd certainly pick FLT over WEB, just because Scroo Turner is such a good manager, he went early and went hard in terms of the capital raising, was prepared to seriously dilute his own massive shareholding in FLT to shore up the balance sheet of the company in the face of this "Black Swan" event for the travel industry, and because he's making moves now to make this a better business going forwards. FLT are going to be more online with less "bricks & mortar" stores, and I don't reckon you'll see Scroo pay out his cash buffer via a special dividend again to distribute franking credits. He'll be keeping a cash buffer now into the future, because the one time he didn't have it was the one time he really needed it. Hence the CR. D'ohhh!! Anyway, just opinions. Not advice. Hope it helps a bit.

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