Perhaps what some might not agree with (including me) is that the dividends from the big 4 are going to remain the largest and safest available on the market. The banks have already shown that they are prepared to cut their dividends, because some already have. In New Zealand the RBNZ (their Reserve Bank) have banned the payment of dividends by NZ-incorporated banks "...through the current period of economic uncertainty" - see here: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120780921/all-eyes-on-australias-big-banks-after-reserve-bank-bans-dividends Banks are likely to be ex-growth or slow-growth for a while, due to the current environment and challenges combined with near-zero interest rates which was already putting a lot of pressure on their NIMs. And if they've over-provisioned for bad and doubtful debts then there will be upside, but if, on the other hand, as I suspect, bad and doubtful debts end up being worse than their current predictions and provisions have factored in, then there's certainly downside, including the prospect of lower or suspended dividends. If they can maintain their dividends, they will likely be fine and people will stick with them, for the most part. However, if the income aspect looks at risk, i.e. if dividends are cut or suspended, then I think a lot of people will dump the banks and look for yield elsewhere. That's the big risk to your theory NW11, IMHO.