Top member reports
Consensus community valuation
$2.78
Average Intrinsic Value
98.8%
Undervalued by
Active Member Straws
#Bull Case
Added 5 months ago

If you believe ADT is on the cusp of proving a Tier 1 asset and regional play (subject to further land acquisition) then there is a reasonably high chance that ADT will be a takeover target. The chart attached, illustrates that Tier 1 assets get bid and bids at premium prices, even though the depressed part of a mining cycle. Should ADT progress the project and shows its Tier 1, a TO is much more likely than not and this could see an offer price with a handle of $4, $5 or $6. The company needs around another year to shore up a few aspects of the project and then they can then look for a compelling and fair offer. Another reason why I think this ends in a bid is because I don't think management really want to build and run the mine themselves. Anecdotes suggest its being fattened up for sale and a number of mid and large tier miners are showing strong interest.

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#Bull Case
Added 4 months ago

ADT released a metallurgical update. new test works confirms ability to produce a separate copper con. Copper recovery is thus improved, but more important is payability which lifts to 90%+ from 30% in the SS. Au and Ag recoveries benefit as to payability due to material proportion of both being produced in the copper con. Still need to see how a third con stream impacts CAPEX and OPEX but overall should be accretive to the NPV of the project.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200121/pdf/44ddnj532hz0q9.pdf

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#Bull Case
Added 6 days ago

ADT competitive advantage of first geographical mover and has access to prior historical documentation. 

Company is well managed and has good co-operation with local government. 

May well be a takeover target for bigger players. 

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#Financials
Added 4 months ago

$1b resource PFS. Polymetallic, being treated by market as industrial metals developer (Zi, Ni, Cu) has dropped on that basis. Resource assays point toward Au/Ag play though...with drilling to confirm reserves and DFS 12-16 months away. High risk recovery rates gamble.

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#Drilling/Assay Results
Last edited 4 weeks ago
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#Vares Project Progress
Added a month ago

23-Apr-2020:  Adriatic Record of Decision Received on Environmental Permit

Adriatic Metals (ADT) is pleased to advise that the Bosnian Federal Ministry of Environment and Tourism has issued a positive Record of Decision (“RoD”) to Adriatic’s subsidiary, Eastern Mining d.o.o., for the Veovaca Environmental Permit, one of the key approvals required for the issue of the Exploitation Permit. With the RoD received, the Environmental Permit will be issued by the Ministry as the RoD is final and cannot be challenged. 

--- click on link for more ---

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#Reports & Presentations
Added a month ago
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#Reports & Presentations
Last edited 2 months ago

08-Apr-2020:  Adriatic Metals Quarterly Activities Report and Cashflow

ADT QUARTERLY ACTIVITIES REPORT For the 3 months ended 31 March 2020:

HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Additional mineralised drill intercepts confirmed a robust extension of the high-grade mineralisation, that remains open along strike.
  • Further metallurgical test work produced a Copper concentrate grading 25.1% Copper and containing 9,550 g/t Silver and 20.9 g/t gold. A sequential locked cycle test also produced saleable lead, zinc and barite concentrates.
  • Successfully negotiated an amendment to the Vares Project Concession Agreement thereby confirming the Company’s rights to gold, silver and copper.
  • Reprocessing of gravity survey data over the Rupice and Jurasevac-Brestic areas highlighted several significant geophysical anomalies as drill targets.
  • Drilling continues with 5 rigs with over 2,800m of the 2020 exploration program completed.
  • Cash balance at 31 March 2019 of £11.8 million (A$23.8 million) ensuring continuity of operations from existing cash resources well into 2021.

...click on link above for more...

Disclosure:  I hold ADT shares.  I also hold SFR shares, and Sandfire owns 12.78% of ADT.  Highly speculative explorer, but for that small portion of your available capital that some people are happy to gamble with (rather than invest), ADT are one of the more active explorers, with a solid copper producer (in SFR) on the register.  ADT will likely give you some serious bang for your bucks based on my past experience with them.  Volatile share price, very news driven, but they tend to release news reasonably regularly - as you do when you've got 5 active drilling rigs operating.  You can trade them, or hold for the takeover that might come (from SFR), or, if you have a lower risk tolerance, you could avoid them altogether.  That would be the best course of action for the vast majority.  I do like a little excitement at the smaller (position) end of my main trading portfolio.  Of course, my larger positions are much bigger companies who are all profitable and reliable, pay dividends, and have very strong balance sheets.  Companies like ADT (and LEG more recently) just add some excitement and interest at the other end.

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#Sandfire buys more ADT
Last edited 6 months ago

05-Dec-2019:  Sandfire Resources Increase in Relevant Interest (to 15.785% of ADT)

Also - same day - Adriatic Delivers High Grade Intercept at Rupice South

 

Disclosure:  I'm not currently holding any ADT, but I do hold Sandfire (SFR) shares - and SFR now own almost 16% of ADT.

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#Reports & Presentations
Last edited 4 months ago
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