Consensus community valuation
$1.240
Average Intrinsic Value
57.7%
Undervalued by
Active Member Straws
#Bull Case
Added 2 months ago

Spewing that I missed this weeks drop to 26.5c. It's now back to my original purchase price of 40c after reaching $1 and then being crunched. Perhaps in response the board put out the following announcement to reaffirm guidance. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200320/pdf/44g77jpgtms43y.pdf. I didn't have time to re-evaluate during the week, waiting for the weekend, and hence lost my chance.

The board re-affirmed guidance for the year of 30-40% organic growth. That's very impressive and they back it up to say that they already work remotely, have global workforce and sales, diverse customer base, fortune 100 customers, no single customer > 10% revenue, but I am a little skeptical. Their points relate to a high level of retaining existing revenue, but I wonder how much new custom they will get. Maybe they have already achieved that goal since we are in March and EOY is only 3 months away.

They have $10M in cash, burnt $4M last half yr. Interesting they only spent $3M on general admin whilst spending $8M on sales and marketing and $6M on product development. So they have enough cash for a year and then can easily scale back sales & marketing and product development to reign things in.

So they have enough to ride out the downturn and have the product that organisations will want to generate sales in the future. I'm still positive. Market cap to ARR is now 4.

 

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#ASX Announcements
Added 4 weeks ago

Great update from BTH this week. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200428/pdf/44h988v0fgzqgc.pdf

  • Bigtincan had $31.5m in cash and cash equivalents at the end of the March Quarter. Cash flow positive +$5M for the qtr and now +$1.6M for 9 months. This seems like a strong inflexion point in profitability
  • New wins with Fortune 500 companies delivered in the quarter, including DXC.
  • Bigtincan reaffirmed guidance for FY20, and remains on track to deliver 30-40% organic revenue growth,with stable retention in FY20
  • Customer cash receipts for the Quarter were $14.9m, an increase of 178% over the previous corresponding periodand a 65% increase over the previous December 2019 quarter of $9m.

One downside is some capitalised software development.

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#Financials
Added 3 months ago

Good results from BTH. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200227/pdf/44fj0xs7z5n0c1.pdf

Figures below are 1H20 in comparison to 1H19

ARR $32.4m Up 55%

Retention 89%  Up 2%

LTV$ 252m Up 84%

Subscription revenue $13.6m  Up 59%

2/3 of the growth was organic. 1/3 acquaried.

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#Financials
Added 6 months ago

Getting impatient - opex seems to be outpacing cash receipts. I will wait for the Dec 4C to be released in Jan before reassessing my position.

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##contract win
Added 6 months ago

$BTH has announced they have won a deal worth $2.8m with Sephora USA Inc. Sephora is a subsidiary of the world’s leading luxury goods group, LVMH.  They won the contract in a competitive bid for retail deployment in Sephora’s personal care and beauty stores. 

https://www.fool.com.au/2019/12/02/bigtincan-share-price-lifts-on-2-8-million-contract-win/

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#Bull Case
Added 3 days ago

BTH revenue growth expectation 30-40% plus doing capital raise at 67c to add to strong cash position and poised for potential acquisitions 

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#Broker/Analyst Views
Last edited 4 days ago

22-May-2020:  Phillip Capital:  Bigtincan Holdings (BTH) Placement and SPP - $70m War chest - Strong business drivers

PC's Recommendation:  Buy (High Risk), 12-month TP: $0.95.

BTH closed at $0.735 yesterday (Friday 22-May-2020).

Excerpts:

Summary
Bigtincan Holdings Limited (BTH) was founded in Sydney in 2011 and has become a recognised global leader with its “Bigtincan Hub” sales enablement software. The platform uses machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to provide sales collateral, training and coaching to sales and customer service reps in the field to increase their selling effectiveness. It enables reps to securely access all types of content (files, documents, PDFs, PowerPoint presentations, e-mail, video etc.) from a single data source and to automate work processes and documentation across any mobile device or fixed network.

BTH has ~15 offices across the USA, Europe & Middle East, Australia and Asia with its global sales and marketing headquarters in Boston, and corporate head office in Sydney. It has long-standing strategic alliances with Apple, Salesforce.com, AT&T and a total of 28 partners / resellers. BTH has over 200,000 users across 400+ deployments in over 52 countries and 17 languages. Recent new customer wins include DXC Technology, Sephora, Anheuser Busch and Nike.

Placement and SPP at 67 cents

  • $40.0m capital raising announced ($35.0m placement and $5.0m SPP) at $0.67 per share, an 11.8% discount to the previous close of $0.76. SPP $5,000 max per holder.
  • With existing net cash of $31.5m at 31 March, cash reserves will increase to ~A$70.0m. Quite a tidy war chest.
  • Purpose of placement: M&A opportunities $17.5m; Accelerate organic growth $10.5m; Working capital to support recent contract wins and transaction costs $7m.

Changes in Assumptions & Estimates

  • We assume that $17.5m of the available cash is deployed for the whole of FY21 on acquisitions, with $7.3m of incremental sales (2.4x historical acquisition multiple). We assume a 0% Ebitda margin in year 1 and 10% in year 2 once integrated.
  • Shares on issue up 19% to 369m.
  • EPS changes: FY20 -1%; FY21 -20% (dilution); FY22 +10% (acquisitions become profitable).
  • Composite valuation: $0.95 (was $0.83) +14%.
  • We raise our 12-mth price target to $0.95 (was $0.83) which implies a 31% 12-mth total shareholder return (TSR).
  • We will revise our acquisition(s) allowance as actual deals are announced.

Recommendation – Reiterate Buy

We now forecast revenue growth of 75% (40% organic) for FY20 (no change), 53% for FY21 (30% organic) and 25% for FY22 (all organic).

Our DCF valuation is $0.82 (was $0.74). Our Salesforce.com Comps valuation is $1.08 (was $0.92). Our 12-mth blended price target increases is $0.95 (was $0.83).

BTH is enjoying powerful tailwinds in its business, driven by the switch to Cloud, mobile working and SaaS whilst users and customers are demanding better information faster. BTH is a standout growth stock. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.

--- click on link above for more ---

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#Broker/Analyst Views
Added 2 months ago

20-Mar-2020:  Phillip Capital:  Bigtincan Holdings (BTH):  Buy:  US$ Earner, Strong business drivers, Guidance re-confirmed

PC now rate BTH as a "BUY" with a "High" Risk Rating and they have a 12-month PT (price target) of $0.68 for BTH (was $0.85), which should close today (27-Mar-2020) at 42 to 43c/share, suggesting there is over +50% upside from here if PC are correct.

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#Broker/Analyst Views
Added 4 months ago

30'Jan-2020:  Phillip Capital:  Bigtincan Holdings (BTH):  Hold:  Sales Enablement Software Leader - Big Quarter

PC rate BTH as a "Hold" with a "High" Risk Rating and they have a 12-month PT (price target) of $0.85 for BTH, which closed at $0.99 on Friday (Jan 31), suggesting BTH's SP may have gotten ahead of itself - or that PC (Phillip Capital) are wrong.

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#Broker/Analyst Views
Added 4 months ago

20-Dec-2019:  Phillip Capital:  Bigtincan Holdings (BTH):  Sales Enablement Software Leader - Initiation of coverage (BUY)

Summary  
Bigtincan Holdings Limited (BTH) was founded in Sydney in 2011 and has become a recognised global leader with its “Bigtincan Hub” sales enablement software. The platform uses machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to provide sales collateral, training and coaching to sales and customer service reps in the field to increase their selling effectiveness. It enables reps to securely access all types of content (files, documents, PDFs, PowerPoint presentations, e-mail, video etc.) from a single data source and to automate processes across any mobile device or fixed network.  

BTH has 15 offices across the USA, Europe & Middle East, Australia and Asia with its global sales and marketing headquarters in Boston, and corporate head office in Sydney.  

It has long-standing strategic alliances with Apple, Salesforce.com, AT&T and a total of 28 partners / resellers.

BTH has over 200,000 users across 400+ deployments in over 52 countries and 17 languages. Recent new customer wins include Anheuser Busch, Nike, Sephora and Sony Playstation.

  • Recommendation: Buy
  • Risk Rating: High
  • 12-mth Target Price: (AUD): $0.78
  • Share Price (AUD, 20-Dec-19): $0.64    (17-Jan-20: $0.725)
  • 12-mth Price Range: $0.24 - $0.76
  • Forecast 12-mth Capital Growth: 21.9%
  • Forecast 12-mth Dividend Yield: 0.0%
  • 12-mth Total Shareholder Return: 21.9% 
  • Market cap ($m): 195.9
  • Net debt (net cash) ($m): (Oct 19e) (25.1)
  • Enterprise Value ($m): 170.8
  • Gearing (Net Debt/ Equity): N/a – Net Cash
  • Shares on Issue (m): 306.2 
  • Sector: Information Technology
  • Average Daily Value Traded ($): $387,000
  • ASX 300 Weight: n/a 

 

Disclosure:  I don't hold BTH shares and don't have a strong view on them.

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#Broker/Analyst Views
Added 4 weeks ago

29-Apr-2020:  Phillip Capital:  Bigtincan Holdings (BTH):  Buy:  Q3 Report:  Record Qtr - US$ earner - Strong business drivers, Guidance affirmed

PC still rate BTH as a "BUY" with a "High" Risk Rating and they now have a 12-month PT of $0.83 for BTH (up from 68 cps), which closed today (01-May-2020) at 74.5c/share, suggesting there is some (but not much) upside from here if PC are correct.  BTH have had a remarkable recovery from 27 cps on March 19th to now be almost triple that at 74.5c.  Looks like PC (Phillip Capital) are playing catch-up again.   [Disc: I don't hold BTH.]

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