Consensus community valuation
$1.920
Average Intrinsic Value
45.3%
Undervalued by
Active Member Straws
#Bull Case
Added 2 months ago

I recently heard a really strong bull case for CAT on the ‘equity mates’ investing podcast by Andrew himself, where he made some great points.

 

Year upon year of double digit revenue growth, strong elite revenue growth (core growth) and 75% of CAT’s revenues being on a subscriptions basis tells me that they are marketing a quality, desirable product that its clients are coming back to. Looking at the ‘elite sports’ industry that CAT’s clients operate in, we can see that this market is growing in exposure (particularly English/Spanish/German football leagues), and thus provides an opportunity for CAT to continue its strong revenue growth in the future.

The appointment of the new CEO is a strong point, brought in with the overall aim of achieving cost efficiency in operations, something CAT has struggled with in the past. Hopefully they can pull some of these things into line and limit the need to capital raise again as will preserve enough cash for R&D themselves.

In terms of financial metrics, they have a strong balance sheet and have raised $5m in debt to help with COVID, however they had no debt prior to this. Management still believes they will reach FCF positive by 2021.

 

**FYI - I am a young investor coming to the completion of my applied finance degree at uni. I'd love for some feedback on my view to help my learn in the future.

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#HY20 Results
Added 5 months ago

A good result for the 6 months ending Dec 31, 2019.

Revenue grew 18% to 50.7m, while the net loss essentially halved to -$4.8m.

Catapult recorded a positive EBITDA of $5.7m compared to a loss of -$1.4m in the prior first half. (They did get a bit of a boost from the adoption of AASB16. On a like for like basis, EBITDA came in at $4.7m)

Importantly, Catapult saw positive free cash flow of $13.6m, which has boosted cash to $24.7m. There's some seasonality here, but the company reaffirmed its expectations to sustainably generate positive FCF by FY21, and it seems unlikely it will need to raise cash again. 

Cross-sell initiatives seem to be doing well, with the number of customers with more than one Catapult product rising 66%. Overall customer numbers grew 19%.

The major North American segment saw growth of 21% in revenue -- it now represents 70% of the total. EMEA grew 15.5% and APAC grew 10%.

ARR grew 20% to $68.8m. 

Perhaps best of all, operating costs declined by 4%. (poor cost discipline in prior periods under previous mamangement was always a big concern).

Churn decreased from 5.2% in FY19 to 4.8% at the half.

Also encouraging to see the previously striggling Prosumer segment improve its loss from -$3.6m to just -$0.4m. Revenue growth was 9%, with reduced costs and marketing spend driving the bottom line improvement. 

Results presentation can be viewed here

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#COVID-19 Impact
Added 2 months ago

With sports beginning to start back up it is going to be very interesting to see whether the COVID-19 shutdown of sports worldwide is just a bump on the road or there are more significant long term effects on the business.

BEAR CASE: while sports are beginning to resume across the world (to empty stadiums) there has been huge financial losses to all sporting codes and clubs wolrdwide.  These massive losses in revenue could well lead to significant cuts (short & long term) and it may take a lot longer than expected to get back to where we were pre COVID.  Locally, you can see the effects on our football codes with huge cuts in spending in the short term and potential winding back and cost cutting for the longer term.  While many customers are on long term subscription contracts the bear in my thinks there are big risks in the short/medium term growth prospects of the company when sporting clubs all over the world are looking at how they can cut back spending, not looking to increase it by purchasing one of CAT's products.

BULL CASE: just a bump in the road.  As mentioned, most of CAT's clients are on long term subscription contracts and they have a very sticky product and improving churn.  Given the hugely valuable information CAT's products provide it will be hard for clients to cut this product as they have become reliant on the information it provides in supporting their players.  Growth wise, if sport resumes as expected and crowds are allowed back ASAP then revenue losses will be minimised leading to greater $$$ to spend going forward.

I have always been a big fan of their tech and the opportunity CAT has in the growing sports science/high performance landscape.  From their last update, it was postive to see their cash reserves are still over 30m (factoring in loan they've drawn down on) which is what they had at their HY presentation, meaning they aren't leaking cash through this challenging period (so far).  Expecting little to no growth in H2, but FY21 is going to be a close watch to see if we can pick up any indications as to any long term effects of spending throughout the sporting landscape. 

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#Oversold?
Added 4 months ago

Catapult shares are down 65% since the start of the bear market -- around double that of the wider market. 

I think the business will struggle to make ANY sales for the rest of the year, and will be a slow pick up after that. The various leagues they service are all winding back, some entirely. In many cases, player pay is under review.

Catapult's customers are more sensitive to the impacts of this virus than I had first imagined. Initially, my expectation was that elite sports would continue, just without crowds and for broadcast only. But with entire seasons being suspended, this was a flawed assumption. 

The business was EBITDA and FCF positive in the latest half, and was on track for its first full year of positive cash flow, but they could linger in the red a while longer with this big halt to new sales.

That being said, the company has $25m in cash and no debt. That should keep them afloat until some form of normalcy returns for their customers. They also had $68m in recurring revenue, and though churn will almost certainly rise, it gives some comfort that there will be a base of operational cash flows coming in.

After Catapults first half results, i was assuming it could get $112m in revenues this year. That now looks unlikely.

If we assume that professional sport will be up and running again in another year or so, but allow for a big dip in sales and a slower growth rate from a lower base, we could say (for the sake of argument) that Catapult only reaches $112m in revenue and profitability in 3 years time. If we give the company a P/S of only 2, we get a target price of $1.14, which is 75c (the current market price) if we discount back at an aggressive 15% per annum.

In other words, assuming catapult can endure a large but ultimately temporary drop in new sales, you can sketch out a case for value using very low-ball assumptions. 

But maybe those assumptions, as unambitious as they may seem, are not reasonable?

I'll continue to watch closely

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#Easing cost cuts
Added 21 hours ago

Catapult announced that it is unwinding its costs savings measures (reduced salaries and furlough leave) as the impact of the coronavirus has been less than expected.

This announcement was not marked as market sensitive, and no specifics were provided, but I take it as a positive that the company feels such mitigation is no longer necessary (especially with so much business in North America).

I'm not reading into this too much, but felt it was noteworthy.

See here

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#Bear Case
Added 2 months ago

The question here is that will COVID have a material impact on the long-term longevity of the business growth. Sporting codes are virtually all closed, however returns dates are being mandated and an overall return is in the near future. Will elite sporting teams still be afford new products such as those offered by CAT? Maybe not.

I’m an avid follower of the English Premier League (EPL) and I am aware of the massive losses in revenues that these clubs have been facing due to a lack of TV exposure, which is where the big revenues are generated. If such clubs cannot afford data analytics tech, then sales growth will indefinitely be hit in the short term but will also impact on revenues in the next 2-5 years. This will subsequently hit CAT’s “reaching FCF positive by FY21” goal pretty hard. The question here is really how sticky are the revenues for CAT and how can they continue to generate sales and earnings growth during this economic turmoil.

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#COVID-19 Impact
Last edited 4 months ago

Catapult has provided an update relating to the impact Coronavirus is having on its business.

Catapult reiterated its strong cash position, which combined with a recent drawdown of $5m in debt from its existing facilities, gives it ~$30m in cash.

It is working to manage costs and manage working capital (although, no mangement or directors have taken a pay cut -- unlike other pre-profit companies. Seems like that would be the classy thing to do).

The company is "comfortable" its ability to reach cash flow positive has not been materially impacted, and has reiterated guidance for that milestone to be reached by FY21.

Customers continue to use and purchase their products, but purchasing decisions are likely to be deferred, and that Q4 new sales growth is likely to be negatively impacted.

75% of revenues are are based on long-term subscription payments.

The business will benefit from a weakening Aussie dollar. (looking seperately at the FY19 annual report, a 10% fall in the AUD would have boosted profit by ~$3.5m)

CEO Will Lopes said that the group is well placed to navigate the crisis and the strong cash position will strengthen their competive position long-term.

Full announcement here  

 

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#ASX Announcements
Added 6 months ago

Catapult has announced a number of new wins in the North American Market.

The company won a league wide deal with Major League Rugby (MLR) in the US, which has 12 teams.

Additionally, it secured a number of high-profile clients including the Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles FC.

As this announcement wasn't marked as market sensitive, they likely don't materially change the outlook previously provided.

Announcement here

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#Bull Case
Last edited 2 weeks ago

Will be looking to buy more on Monday if it drops further. A market leader with a product that elite clubs have to have. The risk of not having this data far outweigh the cost. The price fall being profit taking in my opinion and nervous traders. 

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#Bull Case
Last edited a month ago

I heard a podcast with a member of the statsport team. They supply 11 premier league games teams. Not sure if CAT owns them or they are competition. Regardless, they have been using the trackers at home during cv19 and they have been using the info to create a safe back to training program. I will be buying more CAT. It is only a small holding but may grow.

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#COVID-19 Impact
Added 2 months ago

CAT released a COVID business update reaffirming their current position.

·         $24.7 million in cash with no previous debt + has just drawn an additional $5m in debt from an existing debt facility to strengthen balance sheet

·         Still aiming to be FCF positive by FY21!!! (they maintain that their “ability to reach positive free cash flow has not been materially impacted.”)

·         They admit Q4 FY2020 sales growth will be negative

·         75% of CAT’s revenue is subscription based, with long term contracts.

·         Weakening AUD will benefit sales (majority of which are in the US)

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#Bear Case
Added 4 months ago

With news that a lot of major sporting events are being cancelled, the flow-on effects to Catapult, especially regarding media coverage within matches could be impactful.

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#Bull Case
Added 2 months ago

Altium gave a report that that should have seen a double digit drop in normal circumstances. This should be very positive for CAT given their positive presentation. 

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