Consensus community valuation
Average Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by
Active Member Straws
#Bear Case
Added 3 months ago

FMG at $13.50 during the COVID19 crisis seems a remarkable run. There is an element that competition from other major exporting nations like Brazil has been reduced as they are harder hit by the virus. That being said, it is surprising that the valuation would exceed pre-crisis metrics on subdued demand. 

Another element driving the stock up at the moment is investors flocking into the stock as a semi-safe haven. A counter cyclical bet, or a bet that this won't go down while everything else is. You could call this a safety premium. 

A 52w low of $6.59 and a 52w high of $13.53 puts the mid way price point at $10.06. If you believe in reversion to the mean then this stock will be headed lower from where it is at the moment but that being said; management's increased position and the safety premium mean it deserves to retain a somewhat higher price. 

Time for taking profits but not the time for selling out as there's still room for upward movement. 

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Added a month ago
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Last edited 5 months ago

Twiggy buying another $243 Million dollars worth of stock this week at an average price of $10.98 per share, bringing his total ownership of the company to 36.1%

When FMG goes ex div on Monday and he is due to recieve a cheque in the mail for 845Million - Hard life (Well earnt)

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