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Active Member Straws
#Bull Case
Last edited 3 months ago

Disclaimer: This will be a fundamental analysis, I'm just throwing down what I see. I hold HCT and there is a summary (tl;dr) at the bottom.

 

From the quarterly report dated 31/12/2019.

Sect 1;

  • research and development: $18,000 spend,
  • product manufacturing and operating costs: $1,103,000 spend,
  • advertising and marketing costs: $362,000 spend,
  • staff, admin, corporate costs: $858,000 spend.

Sect 3;

  • Nil to report.

Sect 4;

  • $101,000 in the bank.

Sect 9;

Estimated $2,080,000 expenditure next quarter.

  • $20,000 on R&D,
  • $1,200,000 on manufacturing and operations,
  • $70,000 on advertising and marketing,
  • $700,000 on staff costs,
  • $90,000 on administration and corporate costs.

Chance of cash raising will likely be low even though there isn't that much money in the bank. From the report $HCT have also stated the following;

  • Expected revenues of $1,539,000 next quarter,
  • Additionally, a negotiated payment of $424,710 from MLM iGalen by the end of the first quarter,
    • $138,710 by EOM January 2020.
  • An additional order to KawanFood of $74,500 by end of the first quarter,
  • Corporate overheads have been lowered,
  • "More favourable terms" have been negotiated with their suppliers,
  • Low GI noodle shipment to Korea and China worth $77,000 by end of the first quarter.

 

From the Appendix 2A dated 31/01/2020.

  • HCT ordinary shares: 246,424,087,
  • Unquoted securities (options): 30,000,000

At current share price of 0.17c that gives a market cap of $41,892,094.

 

Other Information;

 

29 Jan 2020

Orders for Natshield Sanitizer Disinfectant Spikes after Outbreak of Coronavirus - My notes follow;

  • HCT sold out of their NatShield Sanitizer in their inventory by mid January 2020,
  • Each bottle contains 5% Path-Away which is plant-based and approved by the FDA,
  • Path-Away was developed by Global Infection Control Consultants LLC (GICC) and is distributed in Malaysia by HCT as NatShield Sanitizer,
  • HCT is the exclusive distributor of Path-Away for the ASEAN region.
  • HCT received requests from 7 chains comprised of 3000 pharmacies in Malaysia for 60,000 bottles of NatShield Sanitizer,
  • This sanitizer is alcohol free, and weakens the cell walls of the virus causing the infectious parts to clump together and kill themselves,
  • This product has been approved by the Food Safety Authority of NZ, and the NZ EPA,
  • The product is approved by the United States Pharmacopeia (USP) after rigerous testing as a disinfectant,
  • The President of GICC LLC stated "The Path-Away formula has been proven in world renowned laboratories including laboratories working with WHO, to be able to kill over 170 deadly pathogens including previously existing forms of coronaviruses."

 

6 Feb 2020

Development of NatShield Nasal Balm with Path-Away As Barrier to Viruses - My notes follow;

  • Patent to be filed by end of March 2020,
  • Product to be available by end of July 2020,
  • From the Retraction of Statements and Clarification dated 25 February 2020, the actual timeline is below;
    • March - Patent filing,
    • March - April - Prototyping,
    • April - May - Testing,
    • May - June - Pre-launch, marketing, testing,
    • July - Launch.

A pretty embarrasing speeding ticket from the ASX. Essentially the business model has not changed, sales were not over-represented. This is evidenced by the subsequent dip from 19c to 12.5c before rebounding to 17c on 25 February 2020.

 

10 Feb 2020

Holista Increases Shipments for NatShield Sanitisers from 60,000 to 150,000, Plans Bottling in Australia to Meet Australian and New Zealand Demand - My notes follow;

  • Fresh orders of 90,000 units were received days after orders for 60,000 units from Malaysia, Australia, and other parts of Asia,
  • Total confirmed orders as at 8 February 2020 were 107,000 units. Each unit is 20ml,
  • Current cost in Malaysian Ringgit is 25 MYR. This equates to about $9 AUD,
  • Details for the bottling arrangement will be announced when finalised.

 

20 Feb 2020

Holista Partners GICC to Co-Develop Nasal Sanitising Balm for Global Markets - My notes follow;

  • GICC extended HCT's distribution and marketing rights for Path-Away to the UK and Europe,
  • HCT is now collaborating with three Phillipine bottling companies for NatShield Sanitiser after the sharp rise in demand as a result of coronavirus,
  • HCT has acquired funding for R&D of the nasal balm and to expand distribution to new international markets,
  • HCT will be working with GICC in the North American region to market NatShield Sanitiser and the Nasal Balm,
  • GICC HAS DEVELOPED A SET OF EQUIPMENT AND PROCESSES THAT HELPS DEPLOY PATH-AWAY IN BUILDINGS SUCH AS AIRPORTS, TRANSPORTATION HUBS, HOSPITALS, SCHOOLS, AND FACTORIES. This deployment will destroy the pathogens in public spaces and help protect people from infection,
  • HCT will be presenting this technology in the Asia Pacific Region except for China, Macau, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

Summary (TL;DR) - I believe this stock will continue to spike with increasing orders and positive news / sale figures. There is a lot of large orders and big money getting invested. This stock is likely to keep rising for the foreseeable future.

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