Consensus community valuation
$5.15
Average Intrinsic Value
19%
Overvalued by
Active Member Straws
#COVID-19 update
Added 3 months ago

Nanosonice said it has seen a "Significant" increase in Q3 sales and that sales of cosumables have been in line with pre-covid-19 expectations.

That being said, access to hospitals is obviously restricted at this time and that is likely to impact sales for the final quarter. However it is hard to quatify, and the company is taking measures to reduce expenditures.

Nanosonics reiterated its (incredibly) strong balance sheet, which has ~$82m in debt, and said that a weaker AUD is helping.

ASX announcement is here 

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#Management
Last edited 3 months ago

Michael Kavanagh is the CEO.  He owns 1018363 shares which is about $6250000 worth on 10/4/20.  He was Senior Vice President Of Cochlear for 10 years.... Sales focused and sales background.

Steven Sargent is Deputy Chairman, Lead Independant Director.  He had a 22-year career with General Electric and has extensive global experience across a range of industries including financial services and healthcare. He was Vice President and Officer of GE, a member of GE’s Corporate Executive Council and CEO of GE Australia NZ. Mr Sargent is currently a director of Origin Energy, Chairman of OFX Group.

Steven Farugia is Cheif Technology officer.  Prior to Nanosonics, Steven held a range of senior executive roles with ResMed, including VP of Technology and VP of Product Development. He is an inventor of almost 300 granted and pending patents and is an Adjunct Professor of Engineering at The University of Sydney.

David Morris is Chief Strategy Officer.  He was Senior Vice President of Strategy and Business Development, Global President for the Cochlear Bone Anchored Solutions Business based in Sweden and Chief Strategy Officer. Most recently, David was Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director for Monash IVF Group Limited. David joins Nanosonics as an Executive KMP.

These are the stand outs and I think if any of these guys left I would likely sell.  They all own a heap of shares.

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#Bull Case
Last edited 3 months ago

Firstly infection control is possibly going to be huge.  Apart from my thoughts with NAN being a one trick pony, there COULD be other products in the pipeline which they might then be able to onsell to their users.

Saving costs, time and bed space will likely be a focus moving forward and there is still a big market to saturate.

Most of its revenues come from the US...from my calculations 99%, so at least they have already broken that market so it might make more sales easier as its already proven tech.

This gives some overseas exposure.

 

 

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#Bear Case
Last edited 3 months ago

Firstly the funding for hospitals might be cut.  Which would make selling to more hospitals harder.

They appear to be a one trick pony, which has been great, yet there might need to be a better product range or solution range to keep growth happening.

They might buy another company out which might solve the above.

Perhaps the hospitals might think "HPV is around with sexually active people anyway so this new improvement is a sales pitch", which might make it harder to sell.

Did I say budget restrictions?

Another might be their patented technology.  Patents dont last forever, and it might be only a few years away before competitors can copy....ie  Think Nespresso and the amount of generic pods available to their older machines.  If hospitals do not upgrade to the latest machines the same might happen to NAN.

I admit I have not looked at their competitors but I think there is likely bucketloads of bigger, better capitalised ones to steal the market..

Why do all of the companies I research have bigger bear cases than bull ones!!!!  Jeez!!!

 

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