Paragon has issued a update --what a shocker!
First half revenue expected to be essentially flat; $120.7m Vs $119.4 in pcp.
The lack of growth is due to a 45% drop in revenue from the group's Western Biomedical segment following the loss of some key clients -- it seems some former employees have left and taken these contracts with them. Paragon has already launched legal action.
EBITDA margins are expected to be ~10%, still below the targeted 13-14% (and this figure already excludes one-off costs associated with restructing). EBITDA is expected to be ~$12m from continuing operations; 14% below last year's first half.
Costs have been reduced by $2m pa, but the company has been targeting an $8m reduction. Still a long way to go.
Further, the new ERP system roll-out is not going to plan and the business wont be fully transitioned until FY21.
This is another reminder that turn-arounds are tough, and always take longer than expected (if at all). A new managemnet team have been in place since November, so maybe it's too jduge their effectiveness -- but clearly the challenge is significant.
Despite the well known problems of the company, I've been prepared to maintain my Stramwan recommendation as I felt that there was a decent business at the core, and that the low share price accounted for this. Following today's ~18% share price drop, it's tempting to continue that rationalisation -- after all, shares are now on a EV/EBITDA ration of 3.9x. If the company can turn things around, this is dirt cheap. The other parts of the business are seemingly going ok, with revenue up 8.5% for the half.
Then again, that thinking has evidently been flawed previously, and this thesis creep has done me no favours.
Thesis busted -- I'm closing my Strawman recommendation.
Full results will be released on Feb 27
ASX announcement is here
27 November 2019
BOARD AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT CHANGES
The Board of Paragon Care today announces important changes to its Board and Executive team as part of the recent strategic restructuring of the business.
Andrew Just has resigned today as Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director. Andrew joined Paragon Care Limited (ASX:PGC) in January 2018 and has been instrumental in working closely with the Board to transition the business from a very cyclical and sometimes commoditised business into a business that is significantly less seasonal and now comprises many high quality and higher margin products and services. The Board would liketo express its thanks to Andrew for his services over the past two years and he leaves with the Company’s best wishes for the future.
Following on from Andrew’s resignation, the Board is pleased to announce the appointment of Phil Nicholl as the new Chief Executive Officer with effect from 2nd December 2019. Mr Nicholl is currently the CEO of one of Paragon’s largest businesses, SurgicalSpecialties, which is a highly regarded player in the orthopaedics market in Australia and New Zealand and has enjoyed a strong track record of growth and profitability under his leadership. Mr Nicholl has extensive experience in the medical devices industry having occupied senior executive roles for industry leaders including Stryker and Cochlear. Phil has worked very closely over recent months with a large number of Paragon’s other businesses in both Australia and New Zealand and the Board seesgreater ‘cross selling’ opportunities emanating from Phil’s appointment.
The Company is delighted to announce that the former Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director and Co-Founder of PGC, Mark Simari will re-jointhe Company as a Non-Executive Director. During his initial tenure (2008-2017), Mark was instrumental in Paragon becoming one of the largest independent healthcare suppliers in the Australian/New Zealand market, creating a healthcare platform spanningacross capital equipment,consumables, devices and service & maintenance. We look forward to Mark playing a pivotal role with the Company’s future growth strategy whilst providing valuable support to both the Board and Executive Team. Mark is also a Non-Executive Director of listed ASX MedTech company Novita Healthcare (ASX: NHL). Mark’s appointment is with immediate effect.
26 November 2019 ASX | PGC
Executing on vision and strategy: Strategic initiatives progressing well in each business vertical, focused on delivering strong organic growth and achieving category leadership
Transformation back on track: ERP implementation initially had challenges which have now been resolved, business anticipates significant benefits to be realised over FY20/21
Solid start to FY20: 6% revenue growth YTD pcp (excluding Western Biomedical where litigation is in process); with momentum building in key businesses
Positive outlook: Strategy delivery, benefits from transformation and removal of low margin products leading to continued growth and improved profitability going forward