Consensus community valuation
$0.445
Average Intrinsic Value
48.2%
Undervalued by
Active Member Straws
#2020 HY Report
Last edited 3 months ago

Key takeaways:

1) Selfwealth are winning 25% of new or switching active traders (15000+ accounts per annum), with their estimated market share increasing to 4%. However, SWF reported 1741 new accounts in January, which equates to a run rate of 20000+ new customers per annum.  

2) Strong trends of January are continuing into February.  

But, SWF have just $1.5 Million in the bank, and are burning cash at a rate of ~$500k per quarter (although ETF costs were paid upfront last quarter).  But, I expect cash burn to fall to $330k this quarter,  With breakeven by the end of the calendar year possible.   

With the market downturn, it is possible there will be a jump in trades and cash, which is great for SWF.   They could surprise on the upside this quarter.  

 

 

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#Bull Case - Fund Manager
Added 3 weeks ago

Datt Capital became as significant shareholder late last month, and have provided their theis in theis blog:https://www.datt.com.au/blog/a-high-growth-opportunity-in-volatile-times

Their forecasts are very optimistic, I don't Can't come up with earnings anywwhere near their estimate.  

But if they want to pump the stock, it is OK by me........

DISC: I hold

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#ETF Fees
Added 5 months ago

I noted some people and even a broker report mention expected initial fees of $500k+ from the ETF.

That aligns with the 0.48% of the ETF fees which SWF retains, presuming $100m AUM.  But the first $100m of seed funding does not pay fees (as per my discussion with management, and probably some disclosures).  They'd have to get to $200m AUM to start earning $500k.  They have currently gone from $100m to $106m after 1 and a half months.  ETF purchases would have to accelerate to even reach $200m after 1 year.  So $500k is an optimistic 1 year target, not an immediate target.

So my expectation is for the ETF to be a cash drain for most of the first year (thus delaying the company's break even by 1 quarter), but being a positive in the medium term, as it should increase the company's total earnings.  They'll also have the opportunity to release further ETFs easily.

The competing brokers with high market caps normally have additional services making their earnings, other than plain brokerage.  Eg. CMC and IG make a lot from margin loans (from memory), so they trade at a higher market cap.  So it'll be good if SWF can start offering some higher-earning services once they have a good market share (currently 4% but should reach 10% before long).

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#Q3 2020 Update - Blowout Quart
Added 2 months ago

Selfwealth report remarkable numbers for Q3.  

  • Revenue for the quarter excedds $2 million, 74% on Q2!
  • Cash burn reduced to 70k for the quarter, down from $535k.
  • Cash held increasaed by 164% ove rthe quarter to $359 million
  • Teade volumes up 103% on previous quarter. 
  • 10 420 new customers joined the platform over the quarter. A 49% increase over the quarter!   
  • Gross margin expansion over the quarter as the business scals. 

Targeting the launch of the international trading platform late 2020.  

All signs pint to selfwealth having crossed the chasm, and is beignning to scale.   

 

 

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#January Update
Added 4 months ago

Some of it was to be expected, but it was still generally faster than I expected.

January vs Q2
Trades: +24.4% vs Monthly Average of Q2 (in line with expectations. Last year's Q3 was +29.6%, but +24.4% off a larger base is good)
Active Clients: +8% vs end of Q2 (+3735 and +4125 for the past 2 quarters. 3 months like Jan would be +5223 in Q3. It's +0.4% market share in 1 month. I'm thinking advertising was low too. Possibly some people started the application process before Christmas, and only just finished it in January, but hopefully the Jan numbers will repeat)
Client Cash: +19.9% vs end of Q2 (somewhat expected, since people withdrew money before the Christmas holidays, but this was still fast, almost reaching my full quarter target)  Interest income should have no costs involved, so +19.9% is nice and should flow straight to cashflow, and luckily RBA kept rates on hold this week.
Revenue: +21% vs Monthly Average of Q2 (up at the mid-point of +24.4% trades and +19.9% client cash)

Cash per active trader: Increased to $6950 from $6250-6550 for the past 5 quarters. I can't explain that. That would be a good trend if it keeps up. Possibly advisers bringing on higher net worth clients.
Trader per trader per month: Back up to 1.4, from 1.22 at Christmas. Past 4 quarters was 1.22-1.45 (1.45 after EOFY sale free trades given out). 1.4 is strong - not sure why it's above trend - maybe market volatility as somebody mentioned.
Average revenue per user: up from Christmas, but below trend, but to be expected after the October RBA cut. Being up after Christmas would be due to the trades per trader per month metric rising.
Revenue per trade: down from $15.01 at Christmas to $14.59 (total of all revenue, divided by total trades). Possibly suggesting a higher rate of free trades, meaning lots of people using the referral program and free trades in January.
Market share: From ~4.8% after December to ~5.2% at end of January.

ETF: still weak.
Adviser: no stats provided.

So growth confirmed for January with some metrics above target and some in line with target. Good result.

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#Search Trends - Competitors
Last edited 5 months ago

The top of the image shows SelfWealth, NABTrade, Commsec over 2 years.

The bottom shows SelfWealth, NABTrade over 1 year.

Over 2 years - Commsec was flat, NABTrade decreased a little, and SelfWealth increased a lot, but is still significantly smaller than both of them.

Over 1 year, SelfWealth went from ~6 times smaller than NABTrade to ~3 times smaller (search volume wise - not necessarily market share).  So according to that, SelfWealth's brand searches doubled or more.  That's roughly in line with SWF's active members number which more than doubled.

So of the 3 companies, SWF is the only one growing quickly.  In 1 year, they might be matching NABTrade.  Another competitor that I didn't add to the chart is CMC Markets, which SWF is approaching and about to overtake in 1 quarter (in Australia only).

So it's interesting seeing SWF approaching and overtaking competitors.

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#Substantial Holders
Added 3 weeks ago

30 April 20: Datt Capital became a substantial holder holding 6.37% [12.37m] at around $0.21.  They put out a research note outlining their thesis.  This is a positive recognition of the company.

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#Q2 2020 results
Added 5 months ago

Revenue relatively flat Q on Q, in seasonally quiet quarter. 

Key growth metrics:

1) Active traders grew 28% Q on Q.  this is well ahead of trading revenue, which augurs well for Q3.  

2) Cash held in trust grew 15% Q on Q.   It is only earning 1.25% interest, but it is most likely bottomed out at this rate.   A 0.25% rate increase will improve their revenue by about 7%.   

3) Shares held grew 25 % Q on Q. 

4) The gross margin per active user per annum  I estiamte to be $60 for trading margin, and $32 for interest income - A total of $92 per customer per annum.  

Key cost metrics:

1) Advertising grew 90% Q on Q.  

2) Acquisition cost per customer is $98 per customer.   CAC payback is around 13 months, which is excellent.    

3) Costs skyrocketed with teh launch of the ETF.  Cost of sales increased by about $300k, and given trading revnue was relatively flat, this must be the annual cost & launch costs of the ETF.    

The challenge with SWF is that its gross margins are around 40%.  It really needs to scale fast to reach break even from here.    Q2 2021 B/E looks possible, but it's the cash position will be precarious.   Q3 is critical. 

 

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#March Update
Added 2 months ago

6 Mar 20: 2,581 new active traders. 

11% growth in overall active traders and 51.3% growth in monthly acquisition rate. 

Cash balances of 26,000+ active traders grew to $217.22m at the end of Feb, up 33.3% MOM. 

Feb finished with 42,396 trades up 28.7% on record breaking January.

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#February 2020 Update
Last edited 3 months ago

To do an update in the same format as my January update:

February vs January
Trades: +28.7%, compared to ASX's trades being up 19.2% in the same period.  So 2/3 of it was seasonal (Corona) and 1/3 was due to growing market share.
Active Clients: +11%.  That's +2581, versus +1741 in January, which I believe was the previous record month.  In January, they said they're getting 25% of new and switching traders (which suggests a trend towards 25% market share from the current 4%), but the February number suggests >25% of new and switching traders.
Client Cash: +33.3%.  Very exceptional, due to the Corona crash.  Enough to more than offset the RBA cut.  But it's probably temporary, with people either depositing cash to buy shares, or selling shares due to fear.
Revenue: January gave a revenue number, but February didn't.

Cash per active trader: Increased to $8340 from $6950 in January and from $6250-6550 for the past 5 quarters. Seems like a temporary spike due to Corona.
Trader per trader per month: Up to 1.63 from 1.22-1.45 usually.
Average revenue per user: can't calculate it without the revenue number.
Revenue per trade: can't calculate it without the revenue number.
Market share: January update announced ~4%, while clients were up 11% this month, so maybe 4.5% now.  (My prior update overestimated it to be 5%)

ETF: got even weaker because of the market being down.  People are questioning whether it'll be closed.  I can't imagine managament doing that so fast, but I see the logic, when it's got quite a long path to break even, and the company might be break even already without it.
Adviser: no stats provided.

Overall, February far above target on practically every metric, but with maybe 2/3 of the rise being temporary in nature due to Corona.

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#Director Transactions
Added 2 months ago

17 Mar 20: Lally +71,428 @ $0.14 [729,596] +$10,000

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