Top member reports
Consensus community valuation
$3.61
Average Intrinsic Value
272.3%
Undervalued by
Active Member Straws
##bear case
Added 5 months ago

In the 2019 review,  TNY management were not particularly transparent.   No year-on-year advertising figures were provided, which shows advertising revenue in a far less positive light than the annualised figures provided.  it took me some time to look back over the previous quarterly updates, and I discovered revenue hasn't really doubled.  it has only gone up 22% year on year. 

RED FLAG. 

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##review of 2019 & outlook - Re
Added 5 months ago

The review has the headlines: 

Doubling Advertising revenue!

Annualized NPS of 70!

3.6M registered users!

Digging deeper, there are some uncomfortable facts:

1) Going by the figures, Q2 2020 advertising revenue has grown only 22% yoy.

2) Monthly active users for Q2 2020 grew 25% yoy.   

Going by these figures, revenue growth for 2021 will fall well below 50% I believe.  I thikn the share price is banking on significantly higher growth.

I AM OUT.  

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##redcycle acquisition update
Last edited 2 months ago

The latest announcement of the red tricycle acquistion is particularly interesting. 

• Tinybeans signs 10 brands (including 2 of the Big Four technology companies) to its extensive partner roster in the past 14 days, generating over $775,000 in revenues for Q3/Q4 FY20 and Q1-FY21.

• Partners include Amazon, Apple, Kraft, and National Geographic Kids

• Of the $775k in signed contracts, approximately 20% is from existing brands while 80% is from new brands signing onto the platform. 

They are pretty big companies. Especially Apple and Amazon, but also Kraft coming onbard. I wonder what beverage they would be advertising? 

Amazon – Amazon, a repeat client of Red Tricycle has partnered to promote the FreeTime Unlimited service and its Fire TV Stick. FreeTime is an all-in-one subscription that gives kids access to thousands of pieces of kid-friendly content, along with easy-to-use parental controls that help parents find the right balance between education and entertainment.

Apple – has selected Red Tricycle as a partner for the launch of Today at Apple, a creative initiative offered in Apple retail stores around the world with the goal of educating and inspiring customers to go further with their passions and the products they love. Apple will be promoting Today at Apple events in many Red Tricycle local markets.

Elvie – U.K-based smart technology brand for women/new Mums, Elvie has signed a second campaign with Tinybeans. In addition to media, the silent, wearable, smart breast pump will also be a part of the Tinybeans Mamas in Miami play date event.

Kraft – Kraft Foods part of the Kraft Heinz Company is promoting the launch of a new beverage by partnering with Red Tricycle on a custom influencer campaign that leverages over a dozen macroinfleuncers (100k+ followers) to introduce the product to mums and families on social media

National Geographic Kids – National Geographic Kids is the children’s publishing arm of National Geographic, a joint venture between the National Geographic Society and the Walt Disney Company with the mission of igniting the explorer within via groundbreaking storytelling. Tinybeans has been selected to support a children’s non-fiction launch

National Highway Traffic Safety Authority (NHTSA) - The NHTSA is an agency of the U.S. federal government, part of the Department of Transportation with a mission to "Save lives, prevent injuries, reduce vehicle-related crashes.” The Advertising Council has tapped Red Tricycle to create custom content for NHTSA, promoting their Right Seat tool ensuring children are buckled up safely in cars.

I am guessing these are all redtricycle brand partners. It could be a very good acquistion if they manage to rake in more ad revenues from the big brands after the coronavirus slows down. 

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