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#Subtle Change
stale
Added 10 months ago

Recently SWF ditched Open Markets for FNZ securities. FNZ securities has a feature that automatically instructs clients share registries to pay dividends directly to their self wealth bank account. This has slipped under the radar but has probably been a small stroke of genius, provided it hasn't ticked off too many clients. I personally think it's pretty convenient, and should help alleviate point number 3 below.

Not 100% sure what to make of SWF's business prospects at the moment but note the following:

  1. Cashflow positive
  2. Organic growth is slowing, and possibly flat.
  3. People are moving cash of the platform because it is earning no interest .
  4. Datt Capital owns a lot of shares.
  5. They have about $10mil in cash

I think this could be a candidate for a merger or acquisition. Watch this space.


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#Board change
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Added 2 years ago

There is a group of shareholders agitating for change with Selfwealth's board.

I tried to delicately raise this during the recent chat with Cath, but she was pretty tight lipped (although to be fair this is really something for the current board to address).

For those after more detail, I just found this on twitter,


Statement on behalf of the requisitioning shareholdersof SWF 29.4.22.pdf

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#ASX Announcements
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Added 2 years ago

f251daef04efd70e2b2fe0010fe0b9d9d5bb2b.png

Pity...something has to change for this company to be viable...

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#Merger - AFR Street Talk
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Added 2 years ago

Equities trading and wholesale clearing platform OpenMarkets Group is understood to be in merger talks with ASX-listed broking platform SelfWealth.

Street Talk understands the companies, which have had a long-standing partnership in place, are in exclusive talks and due diligence has begun.

The news follows a recent shake up at the business, which resulted in a capital restructure, the resignation of former CEO Ivan Tchourilov last week and the company making 21 staff redundant. 

OpenMarkets already supplies SelfWealth with clearing, settlement and execution services and the pair signed a new three-year contract in 2020, which came into effect in 2021.

While the company is now understood to be in exclusive talks with SelfWealth - a tie-up fund manager sources were supportive of - it’s believed the company had also previously been in discussions with Stake.

No dotted lines have been signed yet, but signs point to both companies being motivated to get a deal done.

A merger would likely see OpenMarkets become an ASX-listed company, less than a year after it postponed its float plans.

More to come.

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#ASX Announcements
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Added 2 years ago

Trouble...

b05e6e9560124c0bc9b5901de0de9a461c4d26.png

Selfwealth was a darling of the market during parts of 2020, getting as high as 75 cents. But has since been mullered as trading volumes across the market broadly normalised and cheaper competition entered. It's tough to stay relevant when your main selling point is price and then you get undercut.

[Not held]

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#ASX Announcements
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Added 2 years ago

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***

It's a little difficult to understand exactly where SWF are at the moment. According to today's 4C active traders are up but trades (and revenue) are down. If being kind they're really just treading water waiting for the next major 'event' that causes a step change in volumes. Being less kind they're not really treading water because they're losing money at a rapid clip ($2.6m hit to cash this quarter), which isn't great for a company that just isn't growing. Competition seems like it isn't going to do anything other than increase with Stake offering $3 CHESS-backed ASX trades. I'd be interested in hearing a bull case for this company but to me it looks like a company that is going to get overtaken by bigger rivals with deeper pockets.

[Not held]

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#Launching Hong Kong Stock Exch
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Added 2 years ago

Self wealth has said they are currently beta testing trading on Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a few members. Looking to roll out soon.

Didn't mention anything about price of trades though.

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#Scuttlebutt
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Added 2 years ago

Just noting that I have both Stake (US shares) and Selfwealth. Stake has launched AU shares and they have opened their beta up.


Already considering switching a lot of my trades to Stake to take advantage of the cheap brokerage.

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#Q1 FY22
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Last edited 3 years ago

Seems like a decent Q1 for Selfwealth -- Since the start of July, the number of active traders (funded accounts) grew ~12%, and there was a ~21% lift in the number of trades executed. 

Overall, that drove an 8% lift in operating revenue from the preceeding quarter (32% up from the last first quarter). 

I'm not overly close to SWF, but at first there seems an odd mismatch between the growth in trades vs the growth in operating revenue, at least when comparing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter periods.

EG. between Q4 FY21 and the quarter just ended, SWF grew the number of trades executed by 21%, and yet operating profit grew only 8%

But between Q1 last year and the first quarter just ended, the number of trades increased 15%, but operating revenue grew 32%

A bigger cash balance, and the associated interest income, helps, but they earn very little here. So i had a look at operating revenue per trade executed over each quarter, and this seems to at least partly explain the difference (see image below).

Given they have a flat brokerage model ($9.50 per trade), the increase in revenue per trade must largely come from the 60bp spread they charge on international brokerage, which was introduced around Q3 last year.

(I may have this wrong, so would appreciate it if anyone has a clearer insight).

Still, it's worth noting how much quarterly trade volumes can move around depending on the current market sentiment. In the last 5 quarters, there's a >60% difference between the least active and most active quarters in terms of average trade volumes per account -- which is fine, but shareholders should be aware for the potential of this to yield lumpy results. Of course, a growing number of active accounts helps mask this to some degree (in total terms, the difference between the most and least active quarters is 30% -- still a decent amount of variability, just not as much when is seen on a per account basis).

In any event, it's good that the company seems to be gaining market share without any reduction in brokerage charges, although like others i do wonder how long that can continue. It could take years, but with more and more entrants coming into this space, and all trying to undercut the others, i see players like SWF having to look for additional sources of revenue. The move into crypto could potentially help here, but it depends how they do this.

Also note that the company has dipped back into negative free cash flow as it invests for further growth following the $11m capital raise (incidentally, worth noting on the CF statement that there was a $640,000 cost to conduct their capital raise during the quarter -- a ~5.5% fee. Not that that is unusually egregious, but it's a very real cost of capital and a reminder why investment bankers love to encourage companies to raise!).

That being said, they are very well funded with $17.5m in cash and no debt, and the cash burn isnt material at present. 

Overall, on a trailing 12m basis, SWF is trading on a P/S of roughly 4. Which isnt especially high if they can sustain the pace of top line growth and manage costs. I'm just mindful of the industry dynamics, both in regard to volatility of trade volumes and a structural move to lower margin brokerage. 

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#Bear Case
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Added 3 years ago

An article in the AFR yesterday about Stake’s intention to offer a $3 brokerage is bad news for SWF. Some of the previous competitors like superhero haven’t posed such a big threat as they seemed pretty gimmicky, targeting fractional shares, limit orders only and no HIN number.


Stake however are advertising proper trades with your own personal HIN for $3 which is super aggressive. In the article Stake are claiming it is not loss leading and perhaps they can break even with the intention of cross selling their other products to make money, but there’s no way I can see how Self Wealth can compete with this. SWF are currently paying open markets around $4 - 4.50 to execute their trades and they signed a new three year contract not that long ago.

 

Things are looking pretty ominous for SWF in my opinion.

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#August ASX Trading Volume
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Added 3 years ago

ASX trading volume of 37.4 M trades fo the month of August,  almost the same as the record March 2021 volume of 37.5 M trades.   

SWF Q1 2022 revenues will be much stronger than Q4.  

It's a shame management decided to raise capital at the worst possible time. 

DISC. - HELD

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#Business Model/Strategy
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Added 3 years ago

I could be wrong here this just looks like an industry race to the bottom here on brokerage. Pearler which is also CHESS sponsored has dropped their brokerage to $9.95 flat fees and offers some free ETF trades as a bonus. I note Selfwealth is probably positoning itself to capture the more active traders which would be more profitable given the increased trades. It also has a much better platform etc and use it personally as well. 

I wonder how many will take up and continue to US trades through Selfwealth given they charge brokerage etc, I am more than happy to have a second international only platform I use.

I'm not sure how successful their ETF actually is or how many subscribe to the premium service which I think is the attractive feature here. 

It is cash flow positive and well capitalised after the raise but think I'm happy to watch this one. 

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#Capital Raise
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Added 3 years ago

$15 m of capital to be used over the next 18 months as follows:

  • $3.5 M for marketing.  They have very low customer acquisition costs, and if this can be maintained, is a good allocation of capital.  
  • Technology development: $7.3 M.  Resources have been applied to improve their IU to date, and the return on this investment has been poor in my opinion.  The new CEO may be able to improve the outcomes here.  Time will tell. 
  • Data strategy and infrastructure: $2.2M. Presumably to analyse marketing strategy outcomes and UI feedback?  
  • Additional headcount: $1.4M.  More overheads.  HR manager presumably, and 3 other staff. 

The above investments are clearly to improve Selfwealth's ability to take on the 'Big 4' head on, and differentiate their offering from the likes of Stake, etc.   

Notably, they have not committed to a crypto offering and have deferred the implementation timing, AND it appears Selfwealth are looking to implement their own exchange rather than partnering with an existing exchange.   This makes much more sense and should be within their capability, and will result in a better ROI. 

This capital will ensure Selfwealth's growth can continue, but the question is, will they extract a return on this capital if competition intensifies.   

DISC - I HOLD.   

 

 

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Valuation of $0.450
stale
Added 3 years ago
Revised to take into account of capital raise, which will dilute shareholders by around 15%, and assumes the capital will be used to maintain growth in the face of increased competition (i.e. 0% return of capital raised). COVID-19 tailwinds appear to be waning, with the lowest trading volumes per active trader recoded in some time. Assuming trades to active trader return to their medium term mean, and the PER of SWF matches its peers over the long term. Given the impressive growth in customers, SWF has optionality to expand revenue per customer, firstly with international share trading, and then with other financial services. Using a discount of 12%, and a 2029 EPS of 7.5c at a PER of 15 (downgraded PER due to reflect competitors current PER). The above valuation is based on the assumption that SWF can grow revenue to $107 M over 7 years. Given it has only about 7% market share, but is winning about 20-25% of new business, with further optionality offered via International broking, wholesale business, lending products, robo-advice, I believe this is a reasonable assumption.
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#Q4 report
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Added 3 years ago

Key takeaways:

1) Revenue down 12% Q on Q.  Refer point 3 for why.

2) Active traders up 11% on prior quarter to 95189.  

3) Number of Oz trades per active trader fell to 3.5, down from 6.6 in the prior quarter.  This si the lowest recorded trade volume per active tader in the past 3 years, and well down on the average of 4.9. 

4) Cash held up 4% Q on Q.  

5) New product developments - instant cash trasnfer - Q1, and crypto product in Q2.  It is unclear what the crypto offering will entail.   With new crypto adresses growing over 10% this year, this could be a good product differentiator, if executed well.  

 

DISC - HELD.  

 

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#Crypto Exchange
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Added 3 years ago

We are currently in the middle of the crypto "alt-season", which occurs at this time in the Bitcoin halving cycle.   It is having a noticable impact on the use of sharemarket trading platforms.   I have compared a leading Crypto platform, Swyftx.com.au's web traffic since the beginning of the year.  As one can see on the attached graph, it indicates crypto exchanges are eating inot the investment market of shar etrading platforms.  

So, what does this mean for Selfwealth?   

  1. I think there may be some softness in the number of trades compared to previously corresponding periods, particularly in H1 2022, as we hit peak Crypto mania. 
  2. It shows a crypto exchange would be a great product / services to wrest customers off the 'big-4'.  I predict a crypto exchange will be on the product roadmap for Selfwealth over the next few months.  
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#Webpage Rankings
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Added 3 years ago

Selfwealth hit an interesting qualitative milestone in April, surpassing NABtrade.com.au in webpage rankings.  

It is interesting to note that Selfwealth competitors webpage rankings have been trending downwards this calendar year.   

DISC - I HOLD. 

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#Coffee Microcaps Presentation
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Added 3 years ago

This presentation can befound on Coffee Microcaps You tube channel in the next day or so.   Interesting takeaways from me:

  1. Concerns surrounding interest income (after ANZ pulled the rug out from Netwealth) were addressed.  ANZ must give 12 months notice to change interest rate agreement.  SWF foot the bill of client's account fees, and this will need to be re-negiotiated along with any change to interest rates.  Account fee costs are due for re-negiotiation over the next 6-12 months (SWF is ANZ's largest customer in realtion to No. of accounts - +80k).  So, any loss in interst income can be offset by account cost reductions.  
  2. Cloud native platform offers the ability to adjust and enhance product offerings, in comparison to competitors.  Legacy, big 4 have to revamp legacy technology to incorporate changes / innovations.  
  3. Boad recently approved $3M per annum increase n IT spend.  i.e. Selfwealth are investing heavily in teh platform to expand offering, UI interface to challenge the "Big 4" head on.  
  4. "Big 4" hold 70% of on-line brokerage currently.  SWF are challenging this presently on value fo rmoney, but increasingly on a better product as well. 
  5. 18K active trader additions of Q3 likely to slow down to 12k per quarter of the past year.  Robert acknowledged SWF were caught short in Q3 in realtion to customer demand, but advises the issues experienced have been addressed now. 
  6. Marketing budget will be increased significantly, with customer acquisition costs currently at $20/cient (2 month payback!). 
  7. US trading platformed turned profitable in February - 2 months after launch! 75% of trade were US trades in Q3.  this is expected to double in the near term, increasing gross margins.  
  8. Subscritpions.  Only 2.5-3% of active traders take up $240 pa service.  Enhancments are planned to improve this metric.  
  9. Product roadmap to be releaed mid-year, which will show service offerings / enhancements to be incorproated going forward.  A crypto exchange is one such offering under consideration, subjec to customer demand / requests.  

Rob Edgley argued low interest rates, and high asset prices are not going anywhere.  Therefore, the secular tailwind driving the Selfwealth growth is not going to change anytime soon.  

 

DISC - I HOLD.  

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#Q3 2021 Update
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Added 3 years ago

Good result - key takeaways:

1) Revenue up 178% Q on Q.

2) Active traders up 18645 over Q, up 166% YoY.

3) Cash held increased 26% YoY.  

4) Cashflow positve @ $558k.  

The key metric I was interested in this quarter was gross margins.   The cashflow report, doesn't tell the full story as the US trading is paid 1 month in arrears.  It would be handy if Selfwealth report quarterly revenue as well as receipts to help reconcile that revenue from US trading.   

Assuming trade and FX costs are booked at execution,  backing in the US trading revenue for March will allow for a reasonable estiamte of gross margins going forward.  Now, 36266 US trades were made over the quarter.  If one were to say 33% of these trades were made in March, this equates to around $135k in trade revenue and say, $375k in FX (0.6% of FX transactions).  So that is $560k in revenue not booked against costs of goods for the quarter. 

Assuming the above assumptinos are correct, I come up with a gross margin of 47%.   This compares to a gross margin of 38% for the FY of 2020.     

One happy camper if my assumptions are correct.

 

DISC - I HOLD. 

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#Upcoming Q3 Results
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Added 3 years ago

I am aniticpating a strong result for Q3.   The key features of the result I am expecting, & I think holders need to look out for:

1) Strong growth in active traders, driven by expanded offering.  Competitors such a NABtrade are losing market share to Selfwealth - refer to web traffic ranking data in the figure attached.  

2) Gross margins . The first quarter of the new deal with openmarkets, with higher margins going forward. Margins will increase as trade volumes increase as well.  This represents an inflection point for the business IMO.  

3) Costs will be flat or falling, Q on Q, due to ETF admin costs in Q2, and reduction in CoGS due to new deal with openmarkets.  

I think operating cashflow will be well over $1 Million, but it is hard to forecast & really depends on the new deal with Openmarkets.  The uncertainty will be washed away with these results, & I am looking forward to discovering gross margins going forward..

 

DISC - I HOLD.

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#Insider Buying
stale
Added 3 years ago

Mr Vu has been buying shares on market.  Just $25 k, but this represents 20% of his total holding.  

 

DIS - I hold

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#Bull Case
stale
Added 3 years ago

I see Game Stop GME is back in vogue up 100%+ today (150% in the after market) Selfwealth's many new found millennial traders, will be lighting up the trades like a christmas tree. The recent update numbers around sign ups and trades was fantastic and the fatter margins will show up in the next 4c update early April.

It is looking like an absolute bargain here after pulling back significantly.

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#Market Share indicator
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Added 3 years ago

Interesting slide from slide deck.  Google trends indicate  gaisn in market awareness of Selfwealth vs "big 4".

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#Trading Update
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

Key Takeaways:

1) Average daily registrations in February runrate at 855 per day, up from 240 per day in December.  An increase of 356% in two months!

2) Active traders at 78619, an increase of 11270 in 6.5 weeks!

3) Client cash as at Feb. 17 is $472M up from $435M at end of December.  An 8.5% increase in 6 weeks.

4) Record trade volumes in January of 151811 trades.  131412 trades to date in February.  On track for +500k trades for quarter.

SWF high season trending better than I expected.  

DISC - I HOLD

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#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

They say buy more of what you know. Well I have been buying more SWF. I am seeing tailwinds everywhere atm:

-Sign up spike from GME saga 

-Stake clients jumping ship after platform fails

-Fatter margins from Jan 1st

-Fatter margins on US trades from forex boost

-The Chart looks fantastic

-The much anticipated new app is due to launch any day now.

Seems a no brainer here, The buisness should be killing it right now.

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#US Market Launch
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Added 3 years ago

Selfwealth launched US trading platform this week. Key takeaways:

  1. 7000 US account applications in the first 9 days. Remember, Selfwealth have been onboarding 1000 active accounts per week this year.
  2. New account registrations increased since US platform launch.

Alexa webpage rankings correlate with reported increase in new account registrations. With ranking up 6k places since October. Two issues to note:

  1. Selfwealth pay ETF costs this quarter, so costs should spike this quarter.
  2. Trading is seasonally quieter in Q2.

DISC: HELD.

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#q1 2021 Update
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Added 4 years ago

Solid results for Q1, with key takeaways:

1) Active traders up around 11k to 57k traders ovre quarter. 

2) Revenue of $4.37 M, up around 5% on prior quarter.  

3) Cash held now $49 M, up 12% on prior quarter.  

4) Record trades for the month of September @ 137k trades. 

5) Selfwealth have 6% market share of online investors, up from 4% in December 2019.  

6) US trading platorm development is on track, as is new mobile UI for Q2 2021.  

Overall a solid result, noting the first half of the financial year has historically been the weakest half for Selfwealth with respect to growth.   Over H1 2019, SWF grew quarterly revenue <5%, & over H1 2020 SWF grew quarterly revenue <20%.  In contrast, over H2 2019, SWF grew quarterly revenue >45%, and over H2 2020, SWF grew quarterly revenue >200%.   

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#FY2020 - Results Trading Updat
stale
Added 4 years ago

Selfwealth Full ear Presenation included the following update: 

1) Active traders exceeded 50 000 in July.  This represents at least 7.7% growth over the month of July.  Confirms growth in new members is continuing apace. 

2) Cash balance exceeded $400 m fo rthe first time in August.  This represents 9% growth over a 7 week period.  

3) US trading to launch between October and December - Only weeks away. 

4) Continued improvements to the product, including live-pricing, independent research, & access to IPOs.   

Item 4 above shows management's focus on solving customer problems and building a loyal customer base, and a great product in the process.   

This update increases my confidence that revenue will exceed $22M this year. 

DISC - I hold.   

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#Substantial Holders
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Last edited 4 years ago

SWF founder Andrew Ward announced this morning that he has sold down ~40% of his holding to institutional investors. As you would expect the market had a nervous reaction with clear selling pressure.

If I am in a small position or am trading a stock more on momentum and see a founder sell down, then with only that one piece of information, I too would be incline to consider wheter I want to keep the position.


SWF is a large position for me and as a result I am following it very closely, tracking all their metrics and reading everything posted about them. This seems to be one of the worst kept secrets getting around. 

Last week people on a variety of Stock forums were posting they had heard from brokers that Ward was selling. As you do when you read speculative posts from those you don’t know, you should either disregard it or take it with a large grain of salt and that is what I did. 

However, it turns out they were right. So now I am more interested in what they had to say. They were suggesting Ward was selling and the buyers were a small group of parties that included some of Aussies top small cap funds.

Andrew Ward ceased to be Managing director a few months ago. I see two likely scenarios here. He either stepped down of his own accord for personal reasons or he was forced to step down. In either of those two cases, I would expect him to want to divest some of his net wealth out of SWF shares given he will have less to do with the business. As a result, I am not that surprised by today’s announcement.

These founder selldowns are typically done at a discount to entice funds to participate. This one was not; it appears it was actually at a slight premium of ~56c. 

I have read posts on twitter this morning suggesting it is not a good look for him to sell straight after good news. The Open Market contract announcement last week was on the 24th, this founder sale was conducted before that on the 22nd. 

It is highly unlikely that a group of funds got their full fill from just a $4.5 million sale. Now this morning they are able to buy it at a cheaper price on market and on top of that, after an additional positive contact announcement has been made. So, I expect them to be soaking up shares here.


I am much less interested in today’s substantial holding notice and much more interested in the ones coming in the future to see exactly which funds have been buying. I am sitting tight through this selling pressure this morning and If the share price fell too far below that 0.56 sale price, I would consider picking up some more.

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#Bull Case
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Last edited 4 years ago

To all those who were saying SWF will get hurt when Robin Hood come to Australia and undercut them. Robinhood just pulled out of their long planned UK launch indefinitely and have put all global expansion plans on hold to focus solely on US markets.

A rather bullish development for Selfwealth.


 

An update on Robinhood UK

Hi there,

We’re saddened to share that we’ve made the difficult decision to postpone our UK launch indefinitely. We'll be closing our waitlist and taking down our UK website shortly. 

The world has changed a lot over the past several months and we’re adapting with it. On a company level, we’ve come to recognise that our efforts are currently best spent on strengthening our core business in the US and making further investments in our foundational systems. 

Since we announced our intent to launch in the UK, we’ve been fueled by your excitement for Robinhood and humbled by your response. We’re sorry that we cannot deliver the product we promised you this year. 

Although our global expansion plans are on hold for now, we will continue our work to democratise finance for all and we look forward to the day when we can bring this mission to the UK. 

Sincerely,
The Robinhood UK Team 

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#Another Blowout
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Added 4 years ago

With negative real interest rates (interest rate - inflation), investors are switching to riskier assets like never before. Selfwealth appears to be possibly the most direct beneficiary of this once in a generation phenomina.  

I say it is once in a generation because, investors have never experienced a time in their lives where real  interest rates are negative, and are searching for reasonable returns in riskier assets.  

Here are the takeaways. I think you will agree these numbers are rare to see indeed:

1) Revenue up 101% over three months.

2) Active traders up 44% over three months. 

3) Cashflow inflection point, with cashflow now running at +20% of receipts. Its maiden positive cashflow result. 

We are heading into unprecedented and volitile times.   Investing will be more challenging than ever, however, it is clear Selfwealth is one of the greatest ASX beneficiaries of the times.  

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#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

SelfWealth is by far the biggest position in my personal portfolio. It was also the first trade I put on Strawman where I allocated the maximum. I decided to trim it back on here because I have been tweeting to death about it non-stop for months and people are probably sick of hearing about it. That being said, here is why SWF is still my best and highest conviction idea.

SWF experienced a sudden spike in growth in Jan/Feb which had been made public via The ASX, They raised money at 0.14 and were trading at 0.16. Then when Covid panic hit, the shares were sold off hard along with everything else. But they shouldn’t have been. Over 50% of SWF gross revenue comes from trade volumes. The ASX volume had exploded as people panic sold all their positions in March. Those that sold their positions also left a large portion of the funds from those sales sitting in their Selfwealth cash accounts. The net interest margin on those cash accounts is the other main component of SWF revenue.

It was the perfect storm, a spike in growth combined with a huge surge in trade volumes and cash accounts. I was buying heavily at 0.10 and accumulated a position far beyond my rule/guideline for maximum position size, as was my conviction.

With SWF now trading closer to 30c it is a different proposition, but not necessarily a less attractive one. SWF now finds itself much less under the radar than a few months ago (For example it is now in the top 20 on Strawman) it has attracted recent buying from Funds and liquidity is picking up. 

At this point in time in would be naïve and arrogant of me to assume that I know more that all the current buyers and sellers combined and that I can do a better job determining what the price should be. In fact, I think it is mistake to try and precisely value any company experiencing this sort of rapid growth. With improved liquidity and interest the market price should be given much more weight now and treated as a more reliable benchmark. 

At this juncture I am instead using a different method to determine whether I think it is good value here. It is a method that I used very successfully when sports betting into liquid markets. That is, take the current market price as your most accurate base assumption, then handicap that price based on specific pockets of information that you believe the market is misunderstanding. 

There is currently a narrative among many, that the last quarter was just a Covid related spike and that things are now normalising. It is true that ASX volumes have returned to more normal levels, but what hasn’t slowed down is SelfWealth new clients signing up. Trade volumes are in a large part a derivative of the total client numbers.

I am currently tracking many metrics and data points that suggest growth in new traders this quarter will be huge. I assume the funds trying to get set around this 30c level are not silly and will also be expecting solid growth, but I think they are underestimating just how much. I think the next 4c will blow the expectations away of those currently paying 30c and that those same people will be happy to pay much higher prices.


The Longer-Term Outlook: 

 There are a couple of interesting self-fulfilling prophecies playing out positively for SWF at the moment.

1.     SWF is in a unique position where it almost doesnt matter what the market does from here. If we contiue this melt up in markets Then the SWF share price will continue to get dragged higher like every other stock. If we experience another wave of covid or a different shock that causes a spike in volatility like in March, then trade volumes would increase again and Selfwealth would begin making even more money.

2.     I  recently took a look at the broke data for SWF and found the number one buyer was Open markets (who execute Selfwealth orders). In other words, Selfwealth customers are buying SWF shares. Your first thought may be “great” retail buying is a negative sign. On the contrary. We already know that funds are trying to get set. They are beginning to pop up on the register and if you follow the orderbook flow you would notice some of the ~300k line wipes in recent times, which is a sure foot print of big buyers. 

But Selfwealth customers buying the stock is a phenomenon that adds fuel to this fire. You have a company that is currently growing new users at an insane rate of 50%+ every 3 months. Not only are these new users blowing up the company's revenues, but with every new customer you now have a potentially new and likely buyer of the stock. 

3.     Momentum and trend traders are a very different breed to your typical investor. They are not interested in the fundamentals of the company rather just the direction of the share price and that the volume backs it up. But SWF has had a big run, wouldn’t momentum traders be in there already? Sure, some would be, but the SWF run up happened quickly in just a few months, so it would not be on everyone’s radar yet. Also, the company market cap and liquidity were low which would have discouraged many.

The main point to make however is that unlike many investors, momentum traders do not suffer from an anchoring bias. They don’t care that the price is higher than where they could have once bought it, in fact they relish that as a good sign and a buy signal.

Funds, retail buyers and SelfWealth customers will continue to buy, putting a floor under the price, while momentum traders will continue to flock to the stock as it pushes higher. 

4.     A common theme that seems to be of concern to many is that a big player with deep pockets will come in and start a price war with SelfWealth. Perhaps someone that can afford to run a trading platform at a loss in order to leverage other more profitable financial products to clients. In my experience these types of companies don’t really want to get their hands dirty. They are unlikely to go to all the effort to try and wrestle market share from Selfwealth. This could take years and a much more attractive option would be to just make a take-over bid and begin leveraging their other products immediately.

In other words Selfwealth is on route to becoming a very tasty takeover proposition.

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#Bull Case - Fund Manager
stale
Added 4 years ago

Datt Capital became as significant shareholder late last month, and have provided their theis in theis blog:https://www.datt.com.au/blog/a-high-growth-opportunity-in-volatile-times

Their forecasts are very optimistic, I don't Can't come up with earnings anywwhere near their estimate.  

But if they want to pump the stock, it is OK by me........

DISC: I hold

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#Q3 2020 Update - Blowout Quart
stale
Added 4 years ago

Selfwealth report remarkable numbers for Q3.  

  • Revenue for the quarter excedds $2 million, 74% on Q2!
  • Cash burn reduced to 70k for the quarter, down from $535k.
  • Cash held increasaed by 164% ove rthe quarter to $359 million
  • Teade volumes up 103% on previous quarter. 
  • 10 420 new customers joined the platform over the quarter. A 49% increase over the quarter!   
  • Gross margin expansion over the quarter as the business scals. 

Targeting the launch of the international trading platform late 2020.  

All signs pint to selfwealth having crossed the chasm, and is beignning to scale.   

 

 

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#2020 HY Report
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

Key takeaways:

1) Selfwealth are winning 25% of new or switching active traders (15000+ accounts per annum), with their estimated market share increasing to 4%. However, SWF reported 1741 new accounts in January, which equates to a run rate of 20000+ new customers per annum.  

2) Strong trends of January are continuing into February.  

But, SWF have just $1.5 Million in the bank, and are burning cash at a rate of ~$500k per quarter (although ETF costs were paid upfront last quarter).  But, I expect cash burn to fall to $330k this quarter,  With breakeven by the end of the calendar year possible.   

With the market downturn, it is possible there will be a jump in trades and cash, which is great for SWF.   They could surprise on the upside this quarter.  

 

 

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