Consensus community valuation
Noticed that Beamtree only put out the percentages and not numbers as it looks like they have an ASX quarterly exemption due to previous performance (?).
Based on below, going to make a few guesses to fill in the numbers.
So revenue YTD for 9 months is 21.08m.
For costs, if Beamtree says it has grown 10% pa, and the half year costs were 14.449m, then costs should come around 22m YTD for nine months.
I may have missed something as this is a guesstimate only.
Duane Attree, former CEO of Potential X and Chief Commerical officer seems to have been either let go or simply left Beamtree according to Linkedin...
He is also a subholder of Beamtree with shares escrowed for 2 years.
I didn't expect the share price to still rally. I suppose non-exec chairman Michael Hill could still be buying.
There is also no word or update on one of the NHS trials that was due this month.
Nothing yet from 6 month trial with NHS announced on 22 March 2022 with University Hospital's Coventry and Warwickshire. Looks like a delay which isn't good.
Did a bit of research into Beamtree's competitors.
The dominant player in Beamtree's space has to easily be Altera
Altera is owned by Harris Computer corp who bought out some of Allscripts healthcare software solutions in May 2022.
https://www.digitalhealth.net/2022/05/allscripts-re-branded-altera-digital-health/
The software solutions provided by Altera are very similar to Beamtree.
Altera would be the reason why Beamtree needs to do lengthy 6 month+ trials before a hospital makes a decision to go with them.
I think the fact we have an incumbent that is not disclosed in any of the call transcripts would explain why Tim Kelsey is not buying any stock on market whatsoever despite the bullish comments in the updates. I think he knows there are larger players in the space such as Altera and is not sure how to tackle this problem.
Instead Kelsey chooses to rely on obtaining stock via performance rights.
I put a few posts on HC about the stagnant share price of Beamtree, but will post this more detailed breakdown of my research into holdings here.
One important factor is CEO Tim Kelsey has no holding in Beamtree despite some board members holding shares namely Andrew Gray under HSBC Custody Nominees and Stephen Borness. So if he is so confident on the outlook, why doesn't he have a holding or bought on market?
However, I think much of the downtrend could be explained by the changes in top 20 over the period.
Firstly the snapshot from marketindex (July 2021):
If I look up Tikr it appears Paul Richard O'Connor who retired when PKS/Beamtree acquired his company Pavllion Health had sold 9 million shares in July/August 2021. So his holding is actually 3.95%. Not sure where those shares went, maybe they ended up with Fidelity who then sold a few million in Sept 2021 (according to Tikr).
But more interesting is PE firm Bonbora Investments. Along with the 5.6 million shares in marketindex, they also had 13.1 million shares held in National Nominees ltd under Bombora Special Investments. These were sold as shown at end of July:
There is also an announcement dated March 2021 - Change in substantial holding which shows "Bombora Investment Management <Bombora Special Investments Growth Fund>" and National nominees.
My conclusion is that Bombora Special Investments Growth Fund had sold out most of their holding in BMT (give or take 100K shares) once they saw Paul sell 9 million shares on market.
On top of that, a few other funds sold at the same time Paul did. And also one notable holder/insider Douglas Henry who sold a massive 17.9 million shares (and interestingly former MD of Pavilion Health).
So in conclusion there's quite a few shares floating around unaccounted for. There's still a few more holdings I'm struggling to link up back to marketindex. But this demonstrates how great Tikr is as a tool for tracking down movements in shareholdings and "bad actors" in the share registry.
If only I knew how to use Tikr properly months back
Held (but reconsidering position after this research)