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Saw Cardno get a mention on my twitter feed
The main highlight was potential payments from the legal settlements and sale of their former Insus (Latam) business
Already Cardno has made quite a few special dividend payments.
Also it looks like Cardno has no operations in Asia Pacific or Australia. Which I find is quite strange since a few years ago I met someone who worked at Cardno that was doing a survey of electrical, cable and other services in the CBD in preparation for the Sydney lightrail. Basically he would go under the city to track where these services were so the contractors would know where to dig and put in the rails.
The question for me is whether this is good value or just a value trap since there is no strategy to reestablish local operations.
Can someone help me out with an explanation?
CDD is trading at ~$1.51 and has sold 2 o/s businesses' for which it intends to return ~$1.49 per share to shareholders.
They'll also have a bunch of cash on the balance sheet and if I'm not mistaken no debt.
So....does this mean the remaining businesses are complete rubbish or does this warrant buying a bunch, taking the return and see how they travel rebuilding a new business?
Since my last Straw, the company has released more info and has actually removed some of the risk for the transaction. Below is the latest analysis.
Not sure if anyone else is using this info but I just want to be clear it wont be for everyone. I use these kinds of special situations to get a quick return on my SMSF cash portion rather than having it sit fat dumb and happy in a bank account. The tax in an SMSF is low and I am comfortable with the risk / return but while it can sound attractive to end up with "shares in a company for little to no cost" you need to fully analyse your situation. You can get left with a small return all caught up in a very low liquidity company that is hard to finally realise.
If you want to use my spreadsheet to adjust it for your own situation I am happy to share it with you or talk through the situation - I have to admit I am not yet super comfortable with people investing off my analysis (which is why I am still finding my feet on posting straws in strawman, putting my ideas into the portfolio etc) but this one is a different kind of situation to a normal "Strawman" type of opportunity and figured it may help some people see some different techniques.
Analysis
So what has changed:
As such my final analysis is below (this assumes an SMSF holding so please factor in your own situation).
In short - there is a $1.40 after tax return in 2 months and then you will be left with the holding in the remaining company.
I have made some purchases at $1.50 - $1.52 which I am comfortable at and will be jumping in at anything under $1.50. Above 1.52 I will wait until after the sale goes through and try and pick up some shares in early January when there will be holders looking to cash in and go. I am pretty comfortable with the remaining business being a reasonable investment, but liquidity could be very low. You end up with a company which last year earned revenue of around $300M and EBITDA of around $4.1M. The company will be resizing to suit and may merge with another or continue. There are large Private Equity / Hedge Fund holdings and they are looking to maximise return in short term so I believe a further sale and windup or Merge is most likely. I also think this could be a real opportunity to pick up some shares cheap in the new year when they head for the exits.
With completion of the split, previous assessment is unchanged at 0.24 cents.
Arbitrage opportunity
The sale of the Americas business for $500M USD and return of capital to shareholders through a yet to be determined mix of Capital and Dividend provides a short term arbitrage opportunity where you will get a substantial portion of your capital invested returned quickly. Spreadsheet snapshot below shows thinking. I anticipate a return of capital and dividend to shareholders of $1.49 by end of the year . Majority should be a tax free Capital return, hopefully all.
Ignoring tax then - you will receive almost all your investment back with in 2 months and then hold the remaining business which is a $304M Revenue and management anticipates EBITDA approx $4.1M. Debt will be zero and cash held of between 16 and 26c per share.
What happens next is unclear but the company will be in a strong position to continue to operate a smaller business.
Valuations
Bear - $1.53
Bull - $1.77
Gut feel - $1.63
If you buy now you could purchase for $1.54. Not a huge payday but it is a low risk investment with capital returned to you within 2 months and with upside potential 0-15% of your initial investment in 6 months.
The other play is to wait until after the capital return and try and pick up stock cheap as some investors take the money and run.
RISKS - deal falls over or is not approved, AUD rises massively before settlement. Both low in my view.
DYODD!