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Added a month ago
#Bull Case

Continued director buying as noted by Greyhound

Macquarie buying in

business conditions improving significantly. 

MC 17 mill

NPAT conservatively 1.5 mill

could be considerably more

I am doubling down. 
high risk but suspect a huge pop on latest update. I am not a trader by nature but the short term risk:reward here is very favourable 

 
Added 3 months ago
#Directors buying

Just a couple of points of interest here.

As harsh as this sounds CI1 benifits from economic downturns in Hong Kong,

In october this year Hong Kong retail sales YOY dropped 36.2%.

The Directors have been purchasing lately.

On the 13/11 Anthony Ho purchased $11000 worth on market.

Over the last week the Director Wong Ka Sek has been purchasing on market.

on the 27/11 he purchased $3762 worth

then on the 29th he purchased $9551 worth

Not a masive buy but not something that happens every day.

 
Last edited a week ago
#Coronavirus

Sadly, HK and Singapore will both be badly effected by the pandemic. HK GDP recently revised to -6.8% for 2020. 
All +ve for this company. 
 

like Greyhound in real world am adding to holding  sub 2c. 
 

 
Last edited a week ago
#Business Model/Strategy

Hong Kong based company specializing in bankruptcy and debt consolidation. Different to debt recovery companies. Started by the founder 15 years ago and is profitable with a low cost base. Looking to expand into Singapore and Australia to increase market share and counter lowering bankruptcy rates in Hong Kong

 

  • Stable duopoly in Hong Kong only one competitor
  • CI1 developed a software system that allows them to pay the banks all the different debtors installments in one payment, and creditors and debtors to access payment information etc.
  • Great profit margin (up to 40%) with a low capital outlay. The low barriers to entry make it easier for compeition to enter the market
  • Founding Managing Director is a large holder ( >40%)
  • Zero debt cash positive
  • A slowing Chinese economy could have spill over effects into Hong Kong
  • There has been declining rates of bankruptcy in Hong Kong one of the reasons for the expansion.
  • Entered into collaboration with Cor Cordis in Australia and Arrow Consultants in Singapore to expand internationally.
  • Broker valuation in December of 4.8c conservatively and 7.1c optimistically, this is using 50% DCF and 50% EV/EBITDA
  • A release today (14/8/19) reiterating the protests in Hong Kong should have no long term adverse effects on the business.

 

Disclosure: I baught into this company at 0.013, I will add to my scorecard if it drops back down again.