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Valuation of $4.00
stale
Added 3 years ago
17-Mar-2020: With much more Asian exposure than USA exposure, Platinum could rebound earlier (and go higher) than Magellan from this sell-off, if China come out of this COVID-19 situation ahead of the rest of the world (as it seems is happening), Singapore continues to demonstrate world-class best-practice containment methods (may be considered heavy-handed but it has certainly worked there), and - to a lesser extent - the rest of Asia is not as affected as much as the USA and Europe - and I say "to a lesser extent" because the majority of Platinum's Asian investments are confined to China and Singapore, with just a few others in other parts of Asia, such as Samsung (in South Korea). I consider Magellan to be the better global funds management company, and Magellan's Hamish Douglass to usually be the smartest man in the room (wherever he goes, but particularly when he goes head-to-head with Platinum's CEO & MD, Andrew Clifford), but I still think Platinum (PTM, the funds manager, not the funds themselves) could rebound further and faster than Magellan (MFG, the funds manager, not the funds themselves). What might be a fly in the ointment of that thesis of mine could be performance fees - who earns them and how large they are - and how long they (the managers - MFG & PTM) might have to operate without receiving any. Anyway, if you're going to buy shares in a fund manager (as opposed to a fund), buying them at times like this and then holding for a few years isn't a bad game plan - in my opinion. $4 is my 12 to 18 month target price (TP/PT) for PTM, but if we get a "V"-shaped recovery (always a possibility after an "event-driven" bear market), they will likely overshoot that target by a fair margin, and in less time. 16-Sep-2020: Update: MFG are still outperforming PTM, and their share price has recovered strongly. PTM's started to recover - through April and June 2020, then dropped away again. I wouldn't be buying PTM, when MFG are flying in terms of performance. PTM look cheaper, because they are, and for good reason too. 09-Feb-2021: I'm moving my Price Target for PTM back up to $4 today. They're trading a little above that, but they'll come back down as soon as we get a "correction" or a crash. I would not be surprised to see them reach $4.50 if the bull market keeps grinding higher, but if I held them (and I don't), then I would be selling at around that level - or anywhere from here up to there. PTM have traditionally been the Asian growth specialists whereas Magellan have been mostly invested in the USA, however Magellan now own large positions in Alibaba and Tencent and some other Chinese-listed companies, so I doubt whether PTM is likely to start outperforming Magellan any time soon, not over any decent timeframes anyway. I think Magellan have the better investment analysts and support staff, and I rate Magellan as a superior fund management company to Platinum. For specific Asian exposure, I am currently invested in EAI, Ellerston Asian Investments, which is making new highs every week of late. I really like Mary Manning as a lead PM (portfolio manager), her investing style and her communication skills. And EAI is unashameably a growth fund, and proud of it. I used to be hold shares in Platinum Asia Investments (PAI), which has a similar chart to EAI actually (travelling very nicely), but I'm swapped into EAI and I'm happy with that move. I do not currently have any direct exposure to PTM (the manager) or any of their funds. I do have direct exposure to two of the funds that Magellan (MFG) manage, being MGF and MHH. I prefer the funds to the fund managers at this point. The profitability of the fund managers (PTM & MFG) is dependent on continuing outperformance that generates performance fees, and that could unwind in a decent correction or crash, which could happen at any time. PTM in particular also has a track record of lumpy performance even in strong bull markets. So, I'm not interested in them here. I only usually get interested in PTM when their share price has been smashed and I jump on board for the recovery. That's not where they are at right now, so I'm on the sidelines with PTM.
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