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Added 4 months ago
#Bull Case

Just want to roughly outline why I think WND looks undervalued

Windlab east Africa

-  Recent 10m investment for 25% equity (Est value 40 mil)

- So 37.5 mil if cash + equity taken into account

Lets discount this by 50%  (conservatism) so… 18 mil

Windlab recurring revenue

FY 20 =  9 – 12 mil

Apply x 3 multiple = 27 – 36 mil

 

Lets take the bottom end so 27 mil

 

Cash… 4.5mil plus ~4mil expected from greenwich + financial close of Lakeland expected next year so lets conservatively say… 5mil net cash (

 

Normalised NPAT for 2017/18 ~ 2.9 mil

Including FY19 likely to be ~ 0.6mil And after FY 20 significantly better than this due to lumpy inflows frim Greenwich and Lakeland closes

 

Note: Company stated cash burn rate without any development revenue within the range of discretionary development spending once KEP is operating. (To me this represents pretty significant inflection point allowing significant reinvestment of cashflows from development projects)

 

Wind lab developments south Africa = assigned 0 value

 

Total value if sold off 50mil (note I feel this is conservative)

Estimated normalised P/E at 50mil ~ 25 (for FY20)

 

Current market cap 53 mil (26/06/19)

 

Can see should be limited downside from here with significant upside if only a few things go right.

 
Added 4 months ago
#Momentum

The momentum is pretty terrible currently might avoid some pain and wait for it to improve before building a proper position (26/06/19)

 
Added 4 months ago
#Bull Case

Growth