Forum Topics Beware banks
Strawman
4 years ago

CBA's announcement today to increase support for households and small businesses is commendable. But combined with a dramatic drop in lending, smaller net interest margins and rising bad and doubtful debts I think earnings are going to take a bath over the next year ot two.  That's true for all the banks in general.

Shares in CBA are on a PE of 12.5 and a historical yield of 7%. That can make it seem like bargain territory, but in the GFC (in which we NEVER had a recession, and could look tame next to what we are currrently facing) most of the big banks saw their per share earnings and dividends drop significantly. Shares for the big banks all dropped by around 50% top to bottom.  

In the current situation, banks are still only down ~33% or so. 

The big banks will be bailed out if ever it comes to that, but shareholders could get severely diluted in the process.  

They'd have to all fall a lot further before I was an interested buyer.

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Strawman
4 years ago

Hi Mozzie -- all good (and big) questions, but unfortunately I'm going to be of little help. I have no idea when interest rates will rise again, but i suspect it wont be for quite some time. As for a return to the gold standard, or similar, I don't think that's ever likely. And global debt will probably remain very high for many, many tears given the huge (and necessary) stimulus measures.

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