Company Report
Last edited 4 years ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
Performance (47m)
10.7% pa
Followed by
60
Straws
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#Bear Case
stale
Added 4 years ago

See attached PDF for full analysis

 

I decided to do an analysis of A2M using only financial data up to 2015 in order to see if my framework would have caused me to buy the company and realise a multibagger as a result. 

2015 Verdict: Don't Buy

The framework says they're not a buy on 2 fronts - past performance and cheapness. They have not been good stewards of capital at all for free cash flow return on capital employed. On average the operating income return on capital employed at the start of the period is great, but end of the periord is terrible. This is a strange outcome which requires further thought. They are also very certainly not cheap at the moment mainly because operating income and free cash flow have died off in the past two years, presumably because of the costs of expanding into new markets and listing on the ASX. Balancing these observations is the bright future. In this particular instance, the bright future came true and they went on to grow free cash flow strongly each year and rode a wave of high popularity in China. The lesson learnt is to consider the significance of the future. If it is bright, it can mean hugely positive outcomes, even when it looks like they have been poor stewards of their capital due to low returns in the past. If that was merely a product of setting up the business for success, then that poor return on capital situation may turn around if the bright future one has identified comes true.

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