After reading this attached report I'm not sure it's all game over for Afterpay. Sure the big boys are in town (Apple and PayPal) but their brands don't necessarily extend to everything. I recall years ago when Facebook took a dive because Google was introducing it's own version of Facebook (Can you remember it? Me either).

One thing that I found interesting in this report was that customers of AfterPay love it. Can you say the same of your credit card company? AfterPay also seem to be mostly focused on the beauty and fashion markets where word of mouth and networking are much stronger than, say, buying a fridge or even a phone. To quote from the report in the link below: "Afterpay currently sends ~15 - 20M free customer lead referrals per month to its merchant partners, via its Store Directory app. Since fashion & beauty purchases tend to be an impulse / “browsing” experience, many customers will open the Afterpay App first to see what stores offer Afterpay. Only then, do they choose a brand and see if the brand has anything they’d be interested in purchasing."

 AfterPay also spend a lot of time finding out what their customers like and regularly survey to find out which merchants they'd like to see on the platform. When AfterPay discovered that LuLuLemon was one such merchant AfterPay customers bombarded their phone lines so much, demanding that they accept AfterPay, it literally clogged LuLuLemon's phone lines. Needless to say they soon adopted AfterPay.

So there is a networking and fanbase going on here that seems to be very special. Also in reading PayPal's fine print their Pay in 4 system is not going to be offered to every one of their customers, just a select few who qualify. Then if they renege on a payment PayPal reserve the right to bring in the debt collectors and put a black mark on your credit score. Neither such things occur with an AfterPay account. You're simply blocked from using it until you pay up (yes there's a late fee) and no mark is recorded against your credit score. In conclusion, I think the introduction of PayPal and Apple should be no surprise but the fear of it may be overblown. Sure the switching costs are non-existent but if I'm getting great service and love the product why should I switch? Anyway, enjoy the report found on this link: https://www.haydencapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Hayden-Captal_APT-Presentation.pdf

Great company. My only concern with this company was that it hadn't been tested with a decent recession. Well, that worry certainly took care of itself during the Covid epidemic. If any company needed a proper test to prove their mettle that was it!! Management are grounded, rational, run with the numbers, have grit and aren't easily rattled. I think APT has the makings of a brilliant Apex Predator in this space. The concept is beautifully elegant and simple and customers are raving fans. The network effect is strong and getting stronger. In the end why mess around with something that works? Sure there are tons of competitors now but if I were to draw analogy I'd liken AfterPay to Bitcoin and all its competitors to Altcoins (or shitcoins as they're called in the trade). Sure there are arguably more interesting systems than Bitcoin, but Bitcoin owns the market share of mind. I think APT will do this too. It already has in Australia. It just needs to keep on keeping on in the US and then the world. Has the potential to be a real alternative to Mastercard and Visa and therefore far more market cap growth. Valuation? Not prepared to be specific. Needless to say short this one at your own peril.