I took a break from Strawman back in 2019. At that time, I made a post about APT, saying that they would have to show quick turn around on turning their "astronomical growth" into profits before I was willing to jump on board. Regulatory concerns were drying up at the time and I knew back then that I was potentially going to miss out on some big gains but the looming threat I saw was the perception that APT's early entry would somehow provide them a moat from competitors. What I really wanted to see was brand recognition. The majority of brand recognition for APT comes from it's share price inflation, not the product.
The illusion of moat created by APTs growing infrastructure and partnerships is holding up longer than I thought it would. The silent competitors that I felt were being left out of the picture weren't Z1P or the like, APT had a good headstart on them; it was household names, with established infrastructure. The players that are only now starting to raise their heads; Commbank, Paypal etc.
The reason I feel that it's taken this long for them to stick their hands up, is tied to APT's profitability, or lack of. 2021 has the potential to be the first year that APT turns a profit. Announcements from the other financial institutes saying they're now going to dip their toes in the water; coincidence? I think not. Maybe it's a big nod to APT that they are finally impacting the institutions enough to bother them into action.
To all those who jumped on board at the time, tip of the hat to you. Here we are almost 2 years later, the share price is 5x what it was when I made those comments (congratulations) but the company is still yet to realise a profit.
When it finally does and investors see a 5 digit P/E ratio, will that be enough to end the hype train? I don't know.
When the big financial institutions decide it's worthwhile to write the code and add a BNPL option to the cards that everyone is carrying in their wallet already, I think that's when the market might react.
Am I disappointed I missed out on juicy gains. Of course. is this whole post sour grapes? Potentially, but buying on hype is not my type of investing. Nothing has changed in that regard during my absence and nothing has changed with APT in that time to aleviate any of my concerns.
I said it then, I'll say it now; if you're a holder, strap in, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
