I am both an investor who takes into consideration both the fundamental and technical profile of every company I invest in. 

From a TA perspective AVA is looking horrible. A re-treat back into the consolidation zone which it had already achieved months ago after the first half guidance is a big red flag. Accordingly, I was about to exit on TA basis and re-enter when there was some form of an uptrend again. I also thought about how this company might not perform so well in the 2H of the year given it's apparent reliancy on the IMOD contract. 

However, then I crunched the numbers..

• Question to answer - is revenue and earnings meaningfully growing ignoring IMOD? In 1H total revenue is 35million (at least). Revenue from IMOD was 7.7 million. Last year first half revenue (excluding IMOD) was 20 million. EBITDA was 2.2 million.
• The IMOD update in Oct 2020 suggests that only 3.9 million of “cash” is attributable to IMOD in the first half
• .:. the EBITDA can be assumed to be 12- 3.9 = 8.1 million (compared to 2.2 last year with IMOD excluded which is still around 200% increase in earnings). It also implies the companies is not as heavily reliant on IMOD and that it can be considered okay to be a transient contract and it is growing organically.
• However assuming all 7.7 million cash accounted for from IMOD during the half then EBITDA would be 12 - 7.7 = 4.3 million .:. almost 100% increase in earnings compared to the previous half suggesting the company is still growing even in the background of IMOD. However this is clearly not the case as per the Oct 2020 release.
• Revenue wise IMOD is 7.7 million .:. total 1H revenue is 28 million compared to 20 million last year excluding IMOD .:. 40% growth excluding IMOD (which is notable since IMOD is an actual contract the company achieved and it should be taken into consideration for it’s valuation).
• If looking specifically at the technology division - total IMOD earnings 3.9 million. Technology did 8.5 million (at minimum) in earnings .:. actual non IMOD earnings of at least 4.6 million. In FY20 first half technology did 1.8 million in EBITDA.. So we have significant growth in EBITDA YoY for the technology division alone too.

After actually looking into the numbers, this company is actually growing even if you completely ignore the existance of the IMOD contract - and at a solid rate at that. It's blue chip customer base, and it's ability to demonstrate consistency in growth in the COVID environment earns a strong buy and hold from me.

Price target $2.00