Company Report
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
Performance
n/a
Followed by
0
Straws
Sort by:
Recent
Content is delayed by one month. Upgrade your membership to unlock all content. Click for membership options.
#Bull Case
Added 4 months ago

Taking a more positive view, AEF is still a holder

It's a wonder how AEF share price holds well versus some of their small cap holdings

15b385a5969215fc4ddb5d5e4c5e45e3201931.png

ce45dd532c42887da7d6415cf1365a517c201e.png

There was a time when BTH was one of AEF's top performers and had a feature in their small cap portfolio

#Takeover
stale
Added 10 months ago

Bigtincan announced a non-binding takeover offer today at 80c. Deja vu. In Dec 22 they had another non-binding offer which didn't proceed for the same price. A week later they had a capital raise. Call me suspicious......

#Financials
stale
Added one year ago

Hi Everyone

I'm Rod and just joined Strawman. Looking forward to sharing and learning with everyone. Even in just this past month, I've learned so much.

Yesterday, I watched the interview between Nadine Blayney and CEO of BigTinCan, David Keane. I own shares in BTC.

Is it just me or should he be known as BigSpinMan? I get it that a CEO will want to convey a positive outlook on the financials to the market, but the impression I was left with was similar to that of politicians who appear on Q&A. Don't answer the question asked, just stay "on message".

I came away from the interview with two thoughts - time will tell, but this looks like another less than stellar investment decision I've made.

The second thought was, "gee, I wish I'd joined Strawman a few years earlier and maybe then, I'd have made less blunders".

This is my first straw, so apologies if I've listed my comment under the wrong hashtag.

cheers

#Acquisitions
stale
Added one year ago

On 2 Dec 2022 Bigtincan received an unsolicited indicative, conditional and non-binding proposal from SQN to acquire all the shares in BTH for $0.80 per BTH share. It seems Bigtincan is the one that likes do the acquisitions not be the acquisition. 

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20221202/pdf/45jcj4nm595008.pdf

Bigtincan is serial acquirer and capital raising company below is a summary of all its capital raisings and acquisitions since listing on the ASX in March 2017.

Capital Raising Summary – Raised Approx $345.5m since IPO, today it’s market cap as of today closing price of $0.54 is $325m (Dec 2022).

·      December 2022 - $35m, Institutional $35m, Retail $5m at $0.60 per share

·      August 2021 – A$135.4m, Institutional $79.4m, Retail $56m at $1.05 per share

·      December 2020 – Institutional Raise $35m at $1.05m per share

·      May 2020 – Raise $42.5m - $35 institution, $7.5m SPP at $0.67 per share

·      September 2019 – Raise $20m institution at $0.54 per share

·      April 2019 – Raise $15.6m – Institution $12.4m, $3.2m Retail at $0.42 per share

·      June 2018 – Institutional Raise $15m at $0.35 per share

·      March 2017 Raised $12M at IPO $0.25 per share


Bigtincan Acquisitions Summary

·      December 2022 – SalesDirector.ai US$1.2m -leading revenue intelligence and data platform

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20221228/pdf/45k76z9tjwfcf1.pdf


·      October 2022 – Wanted to Acquire LiveTiles (ASX: LVT)

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20221118/pdf/45hs5hh4h115ml.pdf


·      August 2021 – Brainshark A$116m – a leader in sales coaching, learning and readiness based in Massachusetts, USA

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210823/pdf/44zl4y0ggcngd6.pdf


·      June 2021 – Vidinoti ~$770,000 (550,000 Swiss francs) – leader in augmented and virtual reality systems based in Switzerland.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210617/pdf/44xfxkyjt53jch.pdf


·      January 2021 – VoiceVibes US$2.0m – AI-Powered coaching and sales. Guidance to life.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210115/pdf/44rrgjhrqcgpr4.pdf


·      December 2020 – ClearSlide US$16.25m – a sales engagement technology platform leader with hundreds of customers across three continents.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20201223/pdf/44r80c7nd2fsx6.pdf


·      October 2020 – Agnitio upfront Approx A$3.3m (DKK 15m), Approx A$1.65m (DKK 7.5m) defer condition payable based on target revenue – Danish company and pioneer in sales enablement for rthe life science sector.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20201008/pdf/44ngl4ybd9pvv3.pdf


·      September 2019 – XINN US$4.5m upfront, US$0.5m first anniversary, issue of BTH shares value US$2.5m -based Boston next generation of document automation for sales enablement.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190930/pdf/4490668w54319c.pdf


·      September 2019 – Asdeq Labs A$490,000 – Australian software company delivering mobile service enablement out-of-the-box.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190905/pdf/44881kjx8csqc0.pdf


·      Septemeber 2018 – FatStax USD$1.8m plus conditional deferred cash consideration of US$1.2m based on annual recurring revenue – a leading provider of SaaS sales enablement software to the manufacturing industry in the USA

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180925/pdf/43ylz82jtk6c87.pdf


·      June 2018 – Zunos Technologies A$3.25m plus payout of recurring revenue – a leader in engaging mobile, micro-learning and gamification training

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180618/pdf/43vv86mz3v4w5w.pdf


Previous held Bigtincan shares years ago but currently do not hold or plan to hold shares. PS I have always thought the name Bigtincan was stupid.

#Acquisition
stale
Added one year ago

65faf2c4f03dce6c3e05f4ad874cd2741b02d7.png

Of course they did...

ba0ee3c6f769cd46cebe74c8de4795612728fb.png

...of course it's not.

But why is the announcement price sensitive if the return isn't?

[Not held]


#FY23 Q1 Quarterly and 4C
stale
Last edited one year ago

Bigtincan (BTH.ASX) released their Quarterly and 4C today. From their announcement:

Q1 FY23 Cash Flow Highlights

  • Total quarterly customer cash receipts of $37.7m, an increase of 162% vs Q1 FY22, and up from $31.3m in Q4 FY22, an increase of 20% Qtr on Qtr.
  • Positive operating cash flow quarter, with cash operating payments of $37.5m (including $2.8m of one-off severance and other costs related to business adjustments conducted in the Quarter).
  • Capitalised investments reduced by 25% from $4.7m in Q4 FY22 to $3.5m in Q1 FY23, as development projects were completed and new products came to market.
  • Bigtincan achieved its fourth consecutive operating cash positive quarter, and fifth in six quarters.
  • Bigtincan held $35.3m cash and cash equivalents as at 30 September 2022 and is on track to achieve cash flow breakeven in FY23.

Q1 FY23 Trading Highlights and Outlook

  • Reached the 12-month anniversary of Brainshark acquisition, achieving positive financial and strategic benefits for Bigtincan’s multi-Hub business model.
  • Bigtincan won market recognition including 2022 Sammy Award, and Software Reviews Sales Enablement Emotional Footprint.
  • New customer wins in the Quarter included: HSA Insurance, Assurant, XPO Logistics, eBay. Expansion deals closed included: Cisco, Convatech, Anaplan, Cigna, Farmers, Fidelity, Seagate, Google and Allurion.
  • Strong roadmap progression with new releases across all Hubs.
  • Bigtincan is on track for FY23 guidance of ARR in the range of $137-143m and revenue in the range of $123-128m.
  • FY23 positive adjusted EBITDA forecast to materially exceed FY22.

Another quarter of "positive operating cashflows" however Free Cash Flow was still negative at around -$3.6m. Although they did mention that $2.8m of this was relating to one off costs. Without these costs, operating cash flow would have been around $3.1m. I'm hoping that they are able to become free cash flow breakeven later this FY as they have stated is possible.

The Brainshark acquisition actually seems to be a positive as it generated $3.6m of NPAT for a company they bought for $116m a year ago.

BTH also updated on its announcement of the potential acquisition of Livetiles. Management mentioned that Livetiles has acknowledged the proposal but have had limited engagement. Seems like it is still very early stage at the moment as due diligence has yet been undertaken.

Overall a fairly good quarter from BTH. Still on the cusp of being Free Cash Flow positive and hoping that they are able to make the inflection point later this FY,

Disc: Held IRL and on Strawman.

#FY22 Q4 Quarterly and 4C
stale
Added 2 years ago

Bigtincan released its Quarterly Report and 4C today. From their release:

  • Total quarterly customer cash receipts of $31.3m, an increase of 113% from Q4 FY21 cash receipts of $14.7m, and in line with the Company’s forecasts for FY22.
  • Cash operating payments of $31.2m (including Brainshark integration investments), a decrease of $2.6m from Q3 FY22.
  • Bigtincan achieved its third consecutive operating cash positive quarter.
  • Bigtincan held $39.3m cash and cash equivalents as at 30 June 2022.
  • Annualised Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $120m at 30 June 2022, a 126% increase from 30 June 2021. 

c4baaa7136a824d1ff3c05f7e2f57830c9f831.png

Hard to determine if I like this set of results or not. Obviously maintaining positive operating cash flow is a good sign however this is not the full picture. BTH spent close to 6m in "investing activities" which meant that they burnt more cash than the last quarter.

They also mentioned that they made 2 immaterial acquisitions in the quarter to increase skills in particular verticals. This hasn't been announced previously to the market.

Management are still targeting free cash flow breakeven in FY23 and they should have enough cash to make it there without a raise but will be watching this closely.

Disc: Held IRL and on Strawman

#Management
stale
Added 2 years ago

Historically i have been a bull on Big Tin Can but Pinch of Salt provides some good insight in weighing up the reasons to buy or sell.

Some further considerations,

The coming year will wash out the strength of the Brainshark acquisition in terms of numbers and being able to assess the ability to be profitable in FY23 or FY24.

Assuming if cash receipts in Q3 of 34.3m are annualised this would equate to revenue 137million over the coming 12months . This would put BTH on a price to sales of 2.5x. This would also equate to revenue which would be 25% up on FY 22.

Historically BTH have traded on a 6x + price to sales .

Current price is I feel a reflection fo current times whereby tolerances to anything unprofitable and average growth are not rewarded.

David Keane has been buying shares 27k @ 0.67c on the 9th March 2022 and 55k @ 0.92c on the 1st Feb 2022. Overall there is low insider ownership which presents as a red flag for me.

David CEO and Co founder owns 0.2% or 1.1million shares .

Disc Holder in RL and SM


#FY22 Q3 Quarterly and 4C
stale
Added 2 years ago

Bigtincan reported its quarterly this morning. From their release:

Q3 FY22 Cash Flow Highlights

  • Total quarterly customer cash receipts of $34.3m, an increase of 181% from Q3 FY21 cash receipts of $12.2m, and on track against the Company’s forecasts for FY22.
  • Cash operating payments of $33.8m including Brainshark integration investments.
  • Bigtincan achieved $0.5m in positive operating cash for the Quarter, including payments of $0.6m in costs related to the integration of Brainshark.
  • Bigtincan held $45.4m cash and cash equivalents as at 31 March 2022.

Q3 FY22 Trading Highlights and Outlook

  • Bigtincan was awarded a Gold Medal in the 2022 SoftwareReviews Sales Enablement Data Quadrant Buyers Guide Report.
  • Bigtincan conducted its FY22 Investor Product and Tech day detailing the Company’s product strategy.
  • New wins showcased the growing strength of the multi-Hub product model.
  • Product launches during the Quarter included launch of VR Showrooms, and Bigtincan for Salesforce demonstrate innovation and leadership in the market.
  • Bigtincan is on track to achieve or exceed $119m in ARR and $109m revenue for FY22. 

c3a7dbab9460c9dfcb90ff38019daa4d790b11.png

BTH seems to be generating good cash receipts following the acquisition of Brainshark which they are now incorporating into their reporting. However cash outflows also increased and overall cash flow from operations was down compared to Q2. Most of this seemed to be related to an increase in staff costs. Another $4.4m was also spent on long term product development resulting in a free cash flow of around -$4m.

Given the SaaS business model and the fact that only $1.1m of cash receipts of the $34.3m was for multiyear deals, I'm hoping that there is further growth in Q4 which is usually quite a strong quarter historically and that the business can become free cash flow positive soon.

Disc: Held IRL and on Strawman.

#Management
stale
Added 2 years ago

Another director buying at 0.67c a share. An on market purchase of 41k shares = $27k as an on market purchase.

This follows other directors purchasing at approx. 90c a share a few months back.

I dont really understand the general backwards trend in shareprice for this recently. The general change in sentiment towards growth stocks, increasing likelihood of rate rises in the near future explains a portion of it but the more recent downtrend seems extreme. Now down approx 50% from all time highs despite seemingly every metric going in the right direction.

I admit being a bit out of touch with strawman recently due to my personal life totally taking over (and yes this sounds like an excuse for my underperformance). That said though I thought following the last results announcement that everything looked rosy, then insiders started buying and now we have a further downtrend and more insider buying.

Considering buying more IRL, to match my incremental purchasing in strawman.

Would love to hear a counter thesis to this (very) limited discussion.

##insider
stale
Added 2 years ago

Co-founder David Keane has recently bought $55K of share in BTH within the last week at $0.93. Not a significant investment, however appears to be the largest investment of an insider in the last 12 months.

#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 3 years ago

BTH - Voice vibes acquisition.

Interested in the value that voicevibes may provide for BTH in assisting sales teams to be quick, efficient in relation to  providing proactive feedback to improve sales pitch. 

I was impressed when listening to the customers and BTH team on their Product and Technlogy Webinar on the 13th April this year.

Not sure if others tuned in but keen on obtaining others views as for many this is a very effective manner in which to learn .

 

 

#June 2021 Qtly & 4C
stale
Added 3 years ago

Further to Tom73 Straw, BTH was cash flow positive for the qtr. Also the ARR now stands at $53M and cash expenses for the entire FIN 21 yr were $41m.

The big deal here is that assuming expenses remain in check, BTH are now moving into a good cash flow positive position.

#June 2021 Qtly & 4C
stale
Added 3 years ago

Bigtincan’s update (attached) was solid, highlights:

·         FY21 ARR of $53.1m, up 48% YoY, organic growth was 29%.

·         FY21 Sales $43.5m in line with guidance ($43-44m) is up 34% YoY

·         Cash of $56.7m, Q4 receipts of $14.7m up 40% PCP excluding multi-year payments (ie normalised basis), Operating cash flow break even for Q4.  FCF -$2.0m for Q4 and likely to remain negative for FY22, but well covered by cash on hand.

·         New technology offerings as detailed in the Product and Technology Investor event held 28 April 2021 including launch of Hubs Product Strategy.  Worth an hour to look at the video (particularly the part on VoiceVibes) at:  https://investor.bigtincan.com.

 

I first bought BTH in mid 2018 and have topped up twice since.  My current valuation sits at $1.38 (not on Strawman) but needs updating and when I do on release of the annual report I will publish on Strawman.  In the mean time I am comfortable holding around this value and below

View Attachment

#H1FY21 Results 24/2/21
stale
Added 3 years ago

Continuing Strong Growth into Global Market

1H FY21 Highlights

1H FY21 Highlights

  •  Annualised Recurring Revenue of $48.4m - growth of 50% vs 1H FY20
  •  Revenue of $18.4m - growth of 33% over 1H FY20
  •  Lifetime Value up 44% to $363m
  •  Two strategic acquisitions to support future growth and technology innovation
  •  Ongoing market recognition to further build strength in the global market
  •  Investments in technology team to sustain product advantage
  •  Well capitalised for growth with $65m in cash *

View Attachment

##Broker/Analyst Views
stale
Added 3 years ago

08-Feb-2021:  Sequoia Financial Group: Bigtincan Holdings Limited (BTH): ClearSlide acquisition doubles BTH customer base and TAM

Analyst:  Wayne Sanderson – Head of Research, wayne.sanderson@sequoia.com.au, +61 400 434 548

  • Recommendation: Accumulate (from Buy)
  • Risk Rating: High
  • 12-mth Target Price (AUD): $1.32 (was $1.38)
  • Share Price (AUD): $1.15 ($1.07 on 12-Feb-2021)
  • 12-mth Price Range: $0.26 - $1.60
  • Forecast 12-mth Capital Growth: 14.8%
  • Forecast 12-mth Dividend Yield: 0.0%
  • 12-mth Total Shareholder Return: 14.8%
  • Market cap ($m): 473.8
  • Net debt/(net cash) ($m)(Jun 21e): (54.9) (net cash)
  • Enterprise Value ($m): 418.9
  • Gearing (Net Debt/ Equity): N/a – Net Cash
  • Shares on Issue (m): 412.0
  • Options / Perf rights on Issue (m): 10.7
  • Sector: Software
  • Average Daily Value Traded ($): $2,377,000
  • ASX 300 Weight: n/a

Bigtincan Holdings Limited (BTH) was founded in Sydney in 2011 and has become a recognised global leader with its “Bigtincan Hub” sales enablement software. The platform uses machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to provide sales collateral, training and coaching to sales and customer service reps in the field to increase their selling effectiveness. It enables reps to securely access all types of content (files, documents, PDFs, PowerPoint presentations, e-mail, video etc.) from a single data source and to automate work processes and documentation across any mobile device or fixed network.

BTH has ~16 offices across the USA, Europe & Middle East, Australia and Asia with its global sales and marketing headquarters in Boston, and corporate administration in Sydney.

It has long-standing strategic alliances with Apple, Salesforce.com, AT&T and a total of 29 partners / resellers.

BTH has >300,000 users across >400 deployments in over 52 countries and 35 languages. Recent new customer wins include DXC Technology, Sephora, Anheuser Busch and Nike.

Two acquisitions and a $35m placement at $1.05/shr

On 23/12/20 BTH announced the acquisition of ClearSlide, a similar but complementary sales enablement software business for US$16.25m cash (A$22.6m). This was BTH’s largest acquisition to date. With > 500 enterprise customers, ClearSlide doubles BTH’s customer base and provides strong opportunities for cross-selling / upselling each firm’s products. It also removes a potential competitor and increases BTH’s TAM (Total addressable market) to US$6.0 billion. Acquisition multiple reasonable at ~3.1x ARR of A$7.2m (or 3.8x including further $5.0m planned investment).

On 15/1/21 BTH announced the acquisition of VoiceVibes for US$2.0m (A$2.6m), an AI-powered sales coaching app which can review the quality of Sales staff’s phone calls across ~20 metrics (vibes) with ~90% accuracy. BTH should be able to cross-sell this effectively to its existing customer base.

Placement and initial losses in acquisitions are dilutive shortterm, but BTH is building a strong leadership position in a large under-penetrated e-commerce growth market.

ARR (Annualised Recurring Revenue) now $48.4m at end December including ClearSlide (v $32.4m) +49% on pcp.

Forecasts and Recommendation

Our revenue forecasts increase by 0.1%, 5.7% and 5.9% for FY21e, FY22e and FY23e, (also including lower US$ forecasts). However we also increase estimated costs resulting in a downgrade to Ebitda of -$1.1m, -$2.6m, and - $3.5m.

Our revised valuation range is $0.78 (DCF) to $1.77 (US SaaS peer group revenue multiples, discounted heavily) with a Composite Valuation of $1.32 (was $1.38) per share. This implies 14.3% upside from the current price.

Recommendation: Accumulate (was Buy) on this exciting emerging global SaaS company. With strong tailwinds post Covid, $65m of net cash, and strong product innovations coming, we think that BTH has never been in better shape.

What has changed?

  1. On 23 December 2020 BTH announced the acquisition of ClearSlide Inc, a similar, but complementary Sales Engagement software platform company based in San Francisco, for US$16.25 (A$22.6m) in cash. Acquisition revenue multiple stated to be 3.1x US$5.5m estimated sustainable ARR (annual recurring revenue)(AUD equivalent $7.1m ARR). In addition BTH estimates a further A$5.0m of integration costs will be invested in the business, making a total acquisition cost / investment by BTH of A$27.6m (3.8x ARR).
  2. The acquisition was funded by an A$35.0m institutional placement at $1.05 per share, despite BTH having $67m of cash at end September. 33.333m new shares issued on 6 January 2021 (8.8% increase in shares on issue).
  3. Revenue guidance was unchanged from the August result at A$41-44m (v A$31.0m in FY20) despite the acquisition of ClearSlide and also Agnitio announced 14 October. If ClearSlide’s 6 month revenue contribution for FY21 is A$3.5m and Agnitio’s 8.5 month revenue contribution is ~A$1.6m, this implies a revenue downgrade of around $5.1m (-12% on the guidance mid-point). We estimate this is entirely due to the currency headwind as the AUD has strengthened from US$0.69 at 30/6/20 to US$0.76 now, +10%.
  4. On 15/1/21 BTH announced the acquisition of VoiceVibes, a Baltimore Maryland based company and leader in voice analytics, for US$2.0m (A$2.6m). This comprises US$1.26m cash, US$100k deferred for 12-months subject to set-off against warranty claims, and US$0.6m in BTH shares (750,220 shares at $1.098). Revenue in FY21 is not expected to be material. We review this in more detail on following pages.
  5. December quarterly report & Appendix 4C cash flow report. Mixed. We review this in detail on pages 6-7.
  6. We revise our 12-month price target to $1.32 per share (previously $1.38), -4% due to dilution from the placement, adverse FX and higher cost assumptions. Our price target implies 14.8% upside from the current $1.15 share price. Accordingly our Recommendation is now Accumulate (from Buy). 

--- click on the link at the top for the full Sequoia report on BTH ---

#Broker/Analyst Views
stale
Added 3 years ago

17-Dec-2020:  Sequoia Financial Group: Bigtincan Holdings Limited (BTH): Upgrading our price target – Outlook extremely strong

Analyst:  Wayne Sanderson – Head of Research, wayne.sanderson@sequoia.com.au, +61 400 434 548

  • Recommendation: Buy (High Risk)
  • Risk Rating: High
  • 12-mth Target Price (AUD): $1.38 (was $0.95)
  • Share Price (AUD): $1.10 ($1.13 on 18-Dec-2020)
  • 12-mth Price Range: $0.26 - $1.60
  • Forecast 12-mth Capital Growth: 25.5%
  • Forecast 12-mth Dividend Yield: 0.0%
  • 12-mth Total Shareholder Return: 25.5%
  • Market cap ($m): 416.6
  • Net debt (net cash) ($m)(Jun 20): (69.3) i.e. net cash
  • Enterprise Value ($m): 347.3
  • Gearing (Net Debt/ Equity): N/A (no net debt - net cash)
  • Shares on Issue (m): 378.7
  • Options / Perf rights on Issue (m): 10.7
  • Sector: Software
  • Average Daily Value Traded ($): $2,242,000
  • ASX 300 Weight: n/a

Summary

Bigtincan Holdings Limited (BTH) was founded in Sydney in 2011 and has become a recognised global leader with its “Bigtincan Hub” sales enablement software. The platform uses machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to provide sales collateral, training and coaching to sales and customer service reps in the field to increase their selling effectiveness. It enables reps to securely access all types of content (files, documents, PDFs, PowerPoint presentations, e-mail, video etc.) from a single data source and to automate work processes and documentation across any mobile device or fixed network.

BTH has ~16 offices across the USA, Europe & Middle East, Australia and Asia with its global sales and marketing headquarters in Boston, and corporate administration in Sydney.

It has long-standing strategic alliances with Apple, Salesforce.com, AT&T and a total of 29 partners / resellers.

BTH has >300,000 users across >400 deployments in over 52 countries and 35 languages. Recent new customer wins include DXC Technology, Sephora, Anheuser Busch and Nike.

AGM reaffirms revenue guidance

BTH reaffirmed guidance given with the FY20 result for revenue of A$41-44m for FY21. We estimate this implies organic revenue growth of 29% to 38%.

This is even more impressive when one considers the A$ has recently appreciated to $0.75 from the FY20 average of $0.671 (+ 12% against the US$), devaluing BTH’s largely US derived revenues.

FY20 Result

  • FY20 Revenue $31.0m +56% (35% organic + 16% from acquisitions). This was a strong result, but was 11% below our forecast.
  • FY20 Ebitda was a loss of ($7.9m) v ($3.3m pcp). This included $1.3m losses from the 3 acquisitions in the year. This was $5.2m worse than our forecast loss of $2.7m.
  • Operating cash flow was positive for the first time at $1.8m (v $6.6m burn pcp). It was boosted by a $10.8m working capital benefit – customers paying 12 months in advance.
  • Closing net cash $69.3m (v $25.1m) includes $19.6m (v $9.6m) unearned revenue received in advance.
  • Annualised Group Revenue +53% ($35.8m v $23.4m pcp).

Forecasts and Recommendation

We have revised our revenue forecasts down by 23%, 21% and 21% for FY21e, FY22e and FY23e. This downgrade includes an estimated 12-15% adverse currency impact. 

We have changed our methodology for our Composite valuation. Our valuation range is $0.97 (DCF) to $1.69 (US SaaS peer group revenue multiples, discounted heavily) with a Weighted Composite valuation of $1.38 per share. This implies 25% upside from the current price.

We maintain our Buy recommendation on this exciting emerging global SaaS company. With strong tailwinds post Covid, we think that BTH has never been in better shape.

What has changed?

  1. Changes in Estimates - We lower our estimates for lower than expected FY20 results, FX impact on US-derived revenues, and also incorporate the recent Agnitio acquisition.
  2. Acquisition of Danish software company Agnitio A/S for up to A$4.95m (A$3.3m plus conditional deferred cash consideration of up to $1.65m). Estimated ARR A$1.6m.
  3. AGM update on 25/11/20. Revenue guidance reaffirmed for $41-44m for FY21 (v $31.0m) implying 29-38% organic growth (midpoint 33.5%).
  4. September quarter report and Appendix 4C cash flow report – Cash receipts a bit soft solely due to seasonality and timing of receipts.
  5. FY20 Results review – Strong result, but revenue 11% below our forecasts.

--- click on the link at the top for the full Sequoia report on BTH ---

#Fundie/Analyst Views
stale
Added 4 years ago

11-Sep-2020:  LivewireMarkets.Com: Buy Hold Sell: "5 small caps chasing big markets"

In this episode, filmed on 09-Aug-20 and posted on Livewiremarkets.com on 11-Sep-2020, Chris Stott of 1851 Capital and Gary Rollo from Montgomery Investment Management debate three small caps ripe for this thematic ("small caps chasing big markets").  Companies discussed include 1) City Chic Collective - A specialty fashion retailer benefiting from the shift to online sales; 2) Megaport - A leading network-as-a-service provider; 3) EML Payments - A specialist in general reloadable and gift card payment solutions.

Both guests were also asked to nominate a small cap stock with a big opportunity that they think looks attractive right now.  Stotty chose JIN (Jumbo Interactive), and Gary chose BTH (Bigtincan Holdings), and his "Bull Case" for BTH starts from around the 2:50 mark of the video.

Here's what he had to say:

Gary Rollo (Buy):  "Our name today is Bigtincan. We think Bigtincan is a buy. That's a small cap technology stock, software as a service. Excellent business model. It's a company that has gone global. It has a client roster that ranges from Anheuser-Busch, through Nike, up to large tech companies.

What it does is it helps companies manage their sales enablement. That's a growing area of the market. It's growing its top line at 40%. It's a $400 million market cap. It's one of these microcap stocks that are just about to get into that point where larger funds can take a look at it. So, we think the technology stacks up well and it's got a bright future."