15% up in a day on no news . Any ideas on why and how ?

I've put a valuation of $2.1 last week based on a technical analysis , though I honestly cannot understand the reasons behind the s/p hike today . Suspect some inside trade or pump and dump ...

@CommonCents Great milestone achievement by the EMV team !

10% up yesterday . Mr. Market likes the fact that there are more grant announcements than capital raisings .

#MST Report

Hi Andrew ,

Thank you for sharing . I totally agree with you that this report needs to be taken with a bag of salt .

I do hold a position in EMV since so far it appears to me that they are moving in the right direction from the R&D and marketing perspective .

I compare EMV to WBT - different industry , though the same patterns ( both are start ups , big names behind the company , no real products on the market yet ) .

When you compare the charts below , it clearly shows that the market sentiment was driving prices up more than anything else around mid. 2020 .

The biggest question is when is the right point of entry - now when the risk is high , or later when the growth is prices already ( obviously if the company manages to commercialise the product ) ?

I just hope it won't be another Titomic TTT ( Where is the money , Lebowski ?)

@DrPete123 Sorry for the delayed response , I was snowed under last week .

It is an interesting point . You are correct . I’ve checked GE and Siemens Healthineering’s financial reports , and indeed it is based on a range of 16-20% profit margin and net income around 30-36% depends on a specific divisional performance .

https://www.siemens-healthineers.com/press/releases/pr-2019q4.html

I totally agree with you that companies have many ways to manipulate financial data , and we don’t have full transparency to make an informed decision about company’s real net margins .

In the case of EMV , I believe the market will only look at 3 main drivers initially :

1)    Competent management that has a clear roadmap/development plan and delivers milestone results  ;

2)    Commercialisation of the products – sales growth/customer acquisition Q-n-Q ;

3)    Revenue growth .

Market loves storytellers and growth , and very often illogical .

I wish you and your family a relaxing Easter break ! 

@DrPete123 It's been a pleasure catching up on site.

Net income: 10% margin (roughly what Nanosonics has achieved in recent years) = US$16m/yr

I don't believe 10% is a reasonable figure .Once the R&D cost is paid off , the company achieves a break even . Subsequently , the margins are in the range of 40-70% ( depends on Opex , payroll and cost of materials ). This is similar to a s/w cost - first 5000 customers pay off the R&D investment ,the rest is sold at 70-90% margin .

# Bull case

I've thoroughly reviewed the comments , and believe that the market doesn't look to efficacy or rational as the key aspects of the share price valuation . 

It will continue to go up as long as the market cap remains in $billions ,share price remains undiluted , PE ratio is logical and positive announcement will contue to flow . It is a potential of future earnings that define the share value .

FPH is a good example . Amazing financial results , no debt , and the share price is stagnant .