Re: MarkMet

I've been logging the users and projects numbers from the Freelancer website for 1.5 years.  So I have some info that is semi-public (available for anybody caring to log it, but more timely and granular than the announcements released to the ASX).

So my method is not that complicated.

Now that I have >1 year data, I can start tracking YoY monthly changes, which is nice.  Image attached.

See Oct-Dec for the upcoming quarterly numbers.  Oct +11%, Nov +19%, Dec +37% YoY.  All point toward strong projects numbers in the quarterly, and probably gross platform volume too.

The January +6% is only a partial month, since January has 3.5 days remaining.  But that'sthe start of next quarter - Jan on track for +20% or so YoY.

I can't be sure whether their revenue and cashflow will improve along with the projects count, since for exmaple, they could have run a promotion of discounted project fees.  But I'm confident enough to have made a big bet in advance of the quarterly that this is somewhat of a turning point.  Since last year was quite flat, but the past 4 months seem to have returned to growth.

I'm not sure where I came up with the +36% projection in my previous straw, since the image I attached shows a 21% rise in projects for Q2 vs Q2 last year.  Anyway, +21% is still good.

I was going to predict the next quarter's numbers, but my analytics panel went offline for 10 days in this quarter, so I'll have to estimate instead.

Last quarter (Q3):
Users: +3.78m
Projects: +467k

This quarter (Q4, extrapolating to account for the 10 days of data missing):
Users: +2.19m (vs +1.13m in this Qtr last year = +94% YoY, and -42% Q4vQ3)
Projects: +583k (vs +428k in this Qtr last year = +36% YoY, and +25% Q4vQ3)

So Q3 had a big spike in users - maybe some partnership agreements.
But Q4 is showing an uptrend in projects. I believe this is where the money lies.

Q3 quarterly showed freelancer GPV +7% YoY while my numbers show projects actually -4% YoY for that quarter. So they must have started earning higher fees per project YoY in that quarter.

Anyway, for Q4, my numbers show projects +36% YoY, so I'm expecting the GPV to be up strongly this quarter (maybe +36% or so, unless fees per project was significantly down).


And to put it into solid numbers, last quarter had GPV of $45.7m. I'm expecting $57.1m for this quarter (based on projects being +25% Q4vQ3, assuming fees per project to be flat). I think $46m is the quarterly record for the Freelancer platform, so if I'm right about $57m, then we should expect a jump in SP? Maybe cashflow positive?