With Tabcorp (TAH:ASX) buying Tatts, Jumbo is pretty reliant on contract renewals, recently renewed under less favourable terms until July 2030. In other words there is supplier risks there. TAH could/did negotiate more favourable terms for itself and JIN would/did have their hands tied, squeezing their profit margins.
TAH just announced the sale of their JIN shares...All of their shares.. just under 11.6% of Jumbo The reason Tabcorp's CEO said “Following the recent extension of our long-standing commercial distribution relationship with Jumbo for a ten year term to August 2030, there is no longer a strategic rationale for Tabcorp’s shareholding in Jumbo. As a result, we have decided to monetise this investment, with the resulting capital to be used to further strengthen the balance sheet and support the move towards our recently revised target gearing range.” Personally this is an alarm bell for me, but the logic is sound.
Tabcorp competes with the "Lott" by selling their tickets cheaper!!! Their user numbers are growing substantially also. Perhaps TAH will widen their moat and drain Jumbo's.
Other issues that could affect the earnings are the random size of the Jackpots. There has been more than average big Jackpots which make folk buy more tickets... This leaves revenue more lumpy.
Another issue is gambling preferences... Is Sportsbetting and online poker stealing the market off lotteries? Think about the randomness of lotteries and the percieved better odds of your own poker skills, or the social interactions of sports betting.
Regulations are a bit of of a win and a lose for JIN. Lotteries are highly regulated by state and federal governments which limits competition yet limits growth also. To grow internationally is hard with the roadblocks that Foreign Governments impose also.