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Last edited 4 years ago
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#ASX Announcements
stale
Added 4 years ago

Completed recruitment in their phase 3 heart failure trial. Is the company better today than yesterday - no... but is much closer to a potentially massive catalyst. 

heart failure isnt like gvhd where msb is likely to gain fda approval... as a condition, it is very very common and thus the potential opportunity is huge - but this comes with a big if... the primary endpoint is met

this is a gamble, but as i see it, the trial is either positive in which case msb may well be worth a magnitude of times more than it currently is... or it fails and the indication isnt successful in which case the share price would drop and still represent a reasonable buying opportunity given the gvhd indication looks likely and theres several other trials underway

 

lots of ways to win very very big, minimal losses (in the longterm) except for wasted cash funding trials

 

 

 

 

 

#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

Recent release of 180day mortality rate in gvhd paedeatric study of 69% which seems fairly impressive considering many of the children had the most severe gvhd. This compares with expected survival of <30%. This was a phase 3 study.

already has sales in Japan and likely to extend slsewhere. Although i would expect they will charge a significant cost for their medication, it is likely that for a treatment that improves survival after transplantation in sick children with cancer that they will likely get approval from funders.

Valuation somewhat difficult, particularly if their heart failure trials are +.

#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

Think theyre wasting time and money going after heart failure. The only thing their study showed was that there were lower gi bleeding rates, yet they seem to think this is enough of an indication that they will get fda approval? In my experience, cardiologists dont often care about the gi bleeding rate of the medications they use. Surely the drug would only be improved if it improves cardiac function? Although maybe the chinese partnership suggests they are targeting a different market for this, which may have some relevance given peptic ulcer disease that could bleed is more common in china.

#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

Have heard a senior stem cell researcher whilst discussing stem cells casually mention that they thought the first stem cell product would be approved by the fda this year for gvhd in kids. Presumably they mean mesoblast. Fda approval is never ever certain, but if its similar to australia, certain conditions are likely to be considered favourably. Kids and cancer are two... i think a significant rerating is likely. But speculative. 

#Bull Case
stale
Added 5 years ago

Clear opportunities for msb it is in GVHD. Paedeatric use should get approval this year, and if adult approval follows it should be particularly strong catalysts.

EB may also have value, as could the recent deal for chronic low back pain but its gvhd that offers the most immediate promise.

Im sure its not the first company to be called the next csl, but if they can sort out the significant issues with manufacturing, supply chain, safety and gain indications, msb could be massive