Company Report
Last edited 5 years ago
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#Bear Case
stale
Added 6 years ago

The company has a massive war-chest to fund their extensive growth plans - nearly a billion $ sitting on balance sheeet post the recent notes issuance and the ~A$377M capital raising undertaken in April/May 2018. They also have a further A$300M of liquidity available under their syndicated loan facility which was undrawn at H1 FY18.

That said, it is priced for perfection. Forecast FY18 EBITDA (at the mid-point of guidance) is A$60M vs. A$49M (actual) last year, or 22% growth. Assuming similar growth next year implies a FY19F EBITDA of ~A$75M. Given the recent growth capex and pipeline projects, I'm sure there is some grounds to apply some level of pro-forma, adjusted EBITDA number that could get the company to close to A$100M on a pro-forma adjusted FY19F EBITDA basis.

Overlaying the Metronode multiple of approximately 21x (EV/EBITDA) would imply a valuation of ~A$2.1BN (note some aggressive assumptions being used) whereas the current market cap is closer to $2.5BN (13th July @ $7.31/share). A lot needs to go right for this company to 'grow' into its current valuation.