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Last edited 5 years ago
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Last edited 5 years ago

Whilst not an official Strawman recommendation, I have been with RFF in my personal portfolio for a little while. I have followed for around 3 years (since approx $1.30) and bought maybe 12-18 months ago at $2.09.

RFF as an investment idea was one that appealed to me as its operations as well as its valuation at market should be relatively uncorrelated to many of the small tech/health stocks that I hold in my portfolio. It is a play on Australia's thriving agricultural sector without the all too familiar operating risk of an investment directly in say, Costa Group (CGC), Select Harvest (SHV) or Treasury Wines (TWE).

Management appeared to have a great track record, taking advantage of a highly fragmented and highly emotive industry to achieve superior returns on property and other agricultural assets. The underlying assets themselves yield a net 3.9%, geared to approximately 29.5% with an average lease of around 12 years. The sites appeared to be of superior quality given the reputation of those occupying many of RFF's locations.

Essentially, in light of the short report from Bonitas, the risk of management overstating assets or (more seriously) misappropriating funds has gone from negligible to not negligible. Hence, everybody is currently talking about it. For me this means that the full range of possible outcomes from owning RFF have suddenly become far more diverse and difficult to predict.

The introduction of this extended range of possible outcomes directly breaks my initial investment thesis as this is not a function that I could ever recommend of a REIT. Notably, much of this added uncertainty is also to the downside of the previous considered range of possible outcomes.

Whilst I generally look to avoid succumbing to any single opinion, anecdote or thesis on an investment, in this case I think the current risk-reward trade off just doesn't stack up. I am skeptical of some of the issues raised in the Bonitas short report, however I'm not arrogant enough to think I might have any superior insight/analytical skill to directly contradict it. From a value perspective, with RFF currently trading at a premium to last reported NAV of $1.75 per share as at 31 December 2018, it is hard to make a case.

I would also note that in the case even that this report is later shown to be completely unfounded, I would expect given the association with Glaucus and the history of success with the short theses from the group, that this cloud will hang over the trading price of units in RFF for quite some time.

Last week I sold all my shares at $1.875 which is approximately my best guess at where NAV will be reported to 30 June 2019.