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Last edited 5 years ago
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#Risks
stale
Added 5 years ago

I recently received this email.

It may well be SPAM, but it is a barrier that will impede the adoption of EV's

"Interesting facts by an electrician.

I recently did some work for the body corporate at the Dock 5 Apartment Building in Docklands in Melbourne to see if we could install a small number of electric charging points for owners to charge their electric vehicles. We had our first three applications. We discovered:

  1. Our building has no non-allocated parking spaces ie public ones. This is typical of most apartment buildings so we cannot provide shared outlets.
  2. The power supply in the building was designed for the loads in the building with virtually no spare capacity. Only 5 or 6 chargers could be installed in total in a building with 188 apartments!!
  3. How do you allocate them as they would add value to any apartment owning one? The shit fight started on day one with about 20 applications received 1st day and many more following.
  4. The car park sub-boards cannot carry the extra loads of even one charger and would have to be upgraded on any floors with a charger as would the supply mains to each sub-board.
  5. The main switchboard would then have to be upgraded to add the heavier circuit breakers for the  sub-mains upgrade and furthermore:
  6. When Docklands was designed a limit was put on the number of apartments in each precinct and the mains and transformers in the streets designed accordingly. This means there is no capacity in the Docklands street grid for any significant quantity of car chargers in any building in the area.
  7. It gets better. The whole CBD (Hoddle Grid, Docklands)and Southbank are fed by two substations. One in Port Melbourne and one in West Melbourne. This was done to have two alternate feeds in case one failed or was down for maintenance. Because of the growth in the city /Docklands and Southbank now neither one is now capable of supplying the full requirement of Melbourne zone at peak usage in mid-summer if the other is out of action. The Port Melbourne 66,000 volt feeder runs on 50 or 60-year-old wooden power poles above ground along Dorcas Street South Melbourne. One is pole is located 40 cm from the corner Kerb at the incredibly busy Ferrars /St Dorcas St Intersection and is very vulnerable to being wiped out by a wayward vehicle.
  8. The infrastructure expenditure required would dwarf the NBN cost excluding the new power stations required

These advocates of electric vehicles only by 2040 are completely bonkers. It takes 5-8 years to design and build a large coal-fired power station like Loy Yang and even longer for a Nuclear one (That’s after you get the political will, permits and legislative changes needed ). Wind and solar just can't produce enough. Tidal power might but that’s further away than nuclear

It's just a greenies wet dream in the foreseeable future other than in small wealthy countries. It will no doubt ultimately come but not in the next 20 years."

#Bull Case
stale
Added 5 years ago

I would also endorse the views of others here. I held RFT some months back and decided to sell , that in itself is a sure fire way to get the share price to rise!!

i digress, I am currently in Japan and paying particular attention to what’s on the road, it is my area of “expertise” , I would say that 90% of the vehicles, Yokohama, Nagoya, Takayama, Kanazawa are HEVs. This is good for BAP, but I think there will be a long lead time before EVs take hold in Oz. We’re at least 10 years behind Japan and we still have that “I need a big truck” to get a bag of groceries mentality. Have a look at Dual cab sales. We also love to tow caravans around the place, something that EVs are not good at, range wise.

when I went to the Toyota factory last week, there weren’t a lot of EVs on display or being talked about, a shift I felt from when I was here 2 years ago. There were plenty of Hybrids and PHEV  (Plug in Hybrid Electric Vevicles), it was also interesting that Toyota have just developed the Mirai, a fuel cell hydrogen vehicle. Similar to Hyundai is this their way of combatting range? You refuel hydrogen vehicles the same way as you refuel an LPG vehicle. There is another infrastructure headache.

The other thing that puzzles me is if Bill Shorten has big incentives for people to get into EVs, where is he going to get the 8 billion of lost fuel excise from?

At the moment I’m on the fence with RFT, I will watch and wait.