Company Report
Last edited 3 years ago
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Performance (49m)
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#Bear Case
stale
Added 4 years ago

Latest report (Aug 24, 2020) is around what was expected but SPZ is not out of the woods. Its growth strategy has been hit hard by covid-19 and it remains highly vulnerable to any lockdown measures should they come in again. It's unlikely to need capital in the next 12 months, assuming no lockdown restrictions. It's not likely to be profitable for a number of years. That places its survival strongly at the mercy of how the pandemic progresses and it runs the real risk of going under.

SPZ’s own projections are showing the rebound in PBNs are stalling well below 2019, despite the rosy uptick arrows in its reports and the deceptively large percentage measure taken from the lockdown troughs. Such as July ‘rebounded 350% from COVID-19 lows’ which is pure spin when the July 2020 figure is down 25% compared to 2019. The total figures for the year are also bolstered by a relatively normal first 8 months.

First half ‘adjusted’ EDITDA was +1.6m, total FY was -0.9, implying adjusted EDITDA was -2.6million in the second half and this included a strong pre-covid January and February. The net loss looks even worse at at 5.8million loss for the half. SPZ’s market cap is only circa $31million, so both adjusted EDITDA and the reproted net losses are substantial,


Finally, the full FY21 year is going to be a disaster as it won’t have pre-pandemic numbers to boost its results.

Avoid. Maybe revisit the stock in 1-2 years.