Company Report
Last edited 4 years ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
Performance (72m)
-2.0% pa
Followed by
21
Straws
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#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

This is a pretty speccy buy. Brokerage is pretty sticky business. People have to actually be bothered to change to their system, which could take some convincing. It's an entirely new platform for starters. They will have more success attracting first time investors, rather than stealing customers from other services, because the savings aren't that huge at the levels most people trade at. CMC charge $11 per trade at their lowest bracket, for example, which is only a $1.50 difference per trade. (i'm with CMC, and I can't be bothered for that amount - particularly since CMC are now offering international share brokerage, and I didn't even need to do any paperwork).

Given their heavy investment in marketing, and their executive team (which is quite large), they will require a pretty large customer base to break even, which will take some time. I expect they will need another capital raise or two before they really build tangible momentum. 

Buuut .... SOL (a substantial shareholder) are not silly. I have a small holding. *Update - SOL have since sold their holding.

 

Update Sep 2018 - Following their financial results release, they state they are taking a 10% market share for new traders to the market. This is a little disappointing, as they have a significant marketing budget and the lowest price point in the market - and also because they are not making any significant inroads to take established market share from competitors. Growth figures look impressive, but to be successful, they will have to gain traction at a much higher rate in this next reporting period.

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Update Aug 2019

Latest results announcement showed that the platform is gaining traction, and their marketing spend and cost of acquisition has improved significantly. Their margins are around 35% on current numbers, which is not good enough to outpace the spend required to grow - and they're not growing fast enough for their revenue to cover costs before requiring another capital raise. Suggest waiting for the next capital raise before investing, but long term their strategy is sound, and they have earned their place in the market as a platform.

#Inflection point
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

High risk - but potentially high reward. 

This stock floated at 20c, and has since burned cash trying to get traders onto their platform. Their users and revenue have been growing very rapidly, but until now, not nearly rapidly enough to cover their substantial overheads. 

Their capital management appears to be improving, as customer aquisition cost has dropped sharply, seemingly without impacting the rate of growth of users to their platform. 

They will be receiving a $100M injection in the middle of this calendar year when they float their own ETF (based on stocks picked by SMSF using their trading platform - similar to the straw index) and now anticipate a break even without having to capital raise again.
 

I'll believe it when I see it. Until then, I have purchased a (very) small packet of shares at $0.068.

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Update July 2019

Their latest 4C is showing good signs of the growth they need to break even before raising capital again. With cash at approx $2.3M, and if receipts don't grow, they will be able to last approx 3-4 more quarters - however their revenue is increasing at around 30% a quarter. Note that Q1 is historically a bad quarter though.

There are two significant milestones next quarter that could materially impact the above. Namely the introduction of their advisor portal, and the listing of their 'hive mind' ETF 'SELF'. Both could potentially cost more than they yield if they don't get immediate uptake. We won't know until the Q2 4C probably - but it could be the catalyst that turns them cash flow positive. 

#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

Goal to disrupt the borkerage industry with low flat fee brokerage (like the TPG of share trading), a social aspect, lofty targets and a big marketing budget. 

Additionally, management will be listing an ETF based on their socially derived stock portfolio - similar to the Straw index. Should be interesting.

They are burning through cash at the moment so the next 12 months is critical. If revenue increases enough to break even, this prioce will look very attractive. High Risk.