TPM have announced that due to their decision to pull out of the mobile market, they're going to have revalue (ie, probably impair) their mobile assets that previously haven't been amortised.

This is not great news for their bottom line in the meantime and so I'm a little more cautious about this going forward for the next little while as the market could definitely react sensitively.

I'm still bullish that the merger will go forward and that there will be a jump in the price once that gets approved, but I expect a little decline over the next couple to three weeks before a climb on the merger approval.

Hutchison put out their results today also which were encouraging, there is no doubt the merger will be very good for both parties if it goes through.

The drop in price relating to the ACCC investigation is actually going to come out the other side as a major buying opportunity imho.

Reading the stats on market competition percentages and the ACCC's logic on blocking the merger, I can't see how the ACCC's initial argument will hold - if the ACCC's truly believes that this merger will reduce competition, it will need to also argue for heavier regulation of the two majors due to their market share, which I don't think it will do.

Based on that I'm going to gamble my initial forecast was right, I think the fundamentals indicate this remains a $10.50 share and that the merger will ultimately be permitted. TPG/Voda would still remain the smallest market player and TPG is just a reseller of Voda mobile network anyway.

I stand by the assertion that TPG understands it needs to boost its mobile share as quickly as possible because 5G and mobile bandwidth is where the biggest share of the market is going.

Would be interested to hear if anyone disagrees with me.

Good article summarising is market shares is:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/accc-is-looking-at-the-wrong-issues-in-vodafone-tpg-merger-20181213-p50lzr.html

"In retail mobile services, Telstra has a 44 per cent market share and Optus 29 per cent. Vodafone has a 19 per cent share and TPG, which re-sells Vodafone capacity, 3 per cent.

In the fixed broadband market based on the re-selling of NBN services, Telstra has a 51 per cent share, TPG 22 per cent, Optus 17 per cent and Vocus 6 per cent. Vodafone doesn’t register."

ASX move on TPG/Voda merger:

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02059351

"Our preliminary view is that TPG is currently on track to become the fourth mobile network operator in Australia, and as such its likely to be an aggressive competitor," ACCC Chair Rod Sims said.

"We therefore have preliminary concerns that removing TPG as a new independent competitor with its own network, in what is a concentrated market for mobile services, would be likely to result in a substantial lesseing of competition. If TPG remains separate from Vodaphone, it appears likely to need to continue to adopt an aggressive pricing strategy, offering cheap mobile plans with large data allowances."

"Our preliminary view is the merged TPG-Vodaphone would not have the incentive to operate in the same way, and competition in the market would be reduced as a result. A mobile market iwth three major players rather than four is likely to lead to higher prices and less innovative plans for mobile customers," Mr Sims said.