From Citi

"Treasury’s US off-premise performance has been strong during December (a key trading month) having significantly outperformed the industry. While this is pleasing, there continues to be datapoints suggesting risk to the higher margin on-premise and cellar door channels given consumer spending may be increasingly challenged over CY23 by rising cost of living pressures which underpins our Neutral rating. We see Treasury a fundamentally better business today relative to pre-China tariffs with long duration growth likely to be supported by premiumisation and distribution growth. Treasury is trading at 25x FY23 PE. Maintain Neutral."

Pretty luke-warm rating and no mention of possible tariff reductions from China. 25x is a high PE and perhaps it can only be justified by that upside chance.

News around the traps is that China may start taking Australian Coal as soon as April. Albo and Penny are doing a good job of wooing China so one has to wonder if they will wind back the excessive wine tariff. That could see TWE back over $18.

A few cases of Penfolds could be a good liquid investment but TWE shares are easier to trade : )