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Last edited 5 years ago
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#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

Webjet's share price had already dropped before this report to reflect a less profitable Thomas Cook partnership. China's Fosun has agreed to rescue Thomas Cook. The market is ready to dump Webjet because of macroeconomic concerns and a reserved outlook statement, and yet retailers, miners, banks, and other travel companies are seemingly unaffected.


Webjet has accumulated plenty of shareholder wealth since listing two decades ago. Based on the current forecast, the FY20 PE is 16. It has an excellent structural growth story, a healthy balance sheet, good cash conversion, growing dividend, and worldwide exposure to different currencies and economies.

Besides the short-term risk of a profit downgrade, what am I missing here?

#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

I was surprised when Webjet hit turbulence last year. I initially watched from the sidelines scratching my head. You would think this management had earned a little credit from shareholders. Here was the one of the most successful ASX-listed companies of the last decade, having delivered consistent returns averaging 25% p.a. Why was it being dumped again? Complex accounting with some disagreement with the auditor, increasing acquisition and competition risks, some short term cash flow and guidance disappointment?

Not that these things were/are immaterial. I am probably ignorant of the gravity of it all. I just feel the nosedive was a bit overdone (excuse the puns).

I gave up long ago trying to understand how Webjet profits from flight bookings that you can just buy from the airline site. The online travel business has expanded. The company operates in business to consumer and business to business markets around the world. I feel the opportunity to offer bundled holiday and travel packages strengthens this business.

Bull points

  • Excellent growth prospects with transformational acquisitions funded with equity
  • Scale advantages with partnership programs
  • Good management with early embracement of technology - Development of travel blockchain initiative with Microsoft began in 2016
  • Management has financial interests aligned with shareholders (equity call options)
  • Minimal debt
  • High return on equity, which has remained stable
  • Strong travel tailwinds
  • Business model is higher margin to Bricks and mortar travel agency Flight Centre

Summary: High growth company. Happy to fasten my seat belt.