The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2132 ET - APA just got a fillip from the Australian Energy Regulator recommending the existing regulation regime for the South West Queensland Pipeline should remain in place. While only a draft decision at this stage, RBC Capital Markets analyst Gordon Ramsay believes the SWQP likely won't be subject to full price regulation. "Overall, we view this as good news as the market was worried that a full regulation regime would slow down development by APA of new gas pipeline capacity, particularly for the East Coast gas grid," RBC says. "In our view, these draft decisions normally become final." APA is up 3.4% to A$7.65, outperforming a 0.6% increase by the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2047 ET - Oil edges higher in early Asian trade, as markets weigh supply and demand side concerns. Weak oil demand from China became a concern after the National Development and Reform Commission failed to provide new details of policy support measures, the ANZ Research team writes in a note. Concerns around the world's top oil importer has been weighing on prices in 3Q, they add. Meanwhile, supply-side concerns are emerging, with rising Middle East tensions and Hurricane Milton causing oil companies to shut platforms, they add. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are up 0.5% at $73.95/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are also 0.5% up at $77.55/bbl.([email protected])

1834 ET - U.S. health care company Mercy Health is an example of Pro Medicus's perfect customer and the development of their relationship through to a A$98 million, eight-year contract renewal highlights the strength of Pro Medicus's business model, Jefferies says. Still, it's not enough to persuade analyst Wei Sim to change his hold call on Pro Medicus's stock. Jefferies notes Pro Medicus is trading above historical 1-year forward multiples. "We are also concerned over potential competition risk from DeepHealth OS over the medium term and need further comfort on the potential competition landscape before becoming more positive," Jefferies says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

1828 ET - Infratil's latest valuation of CDC data centers isn't shared by Jefferies, which thinks the business is worth more. Infratil last week said its 48.2% stake in CDC is now valued at between A$4.39 billion and A$5.25 billion, representing a rise of some 6.3% in three months at the midpoint. Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel estimates CDC is worth NZ$6.5 billion, which is equivalent to A$5.91 billion, based on an enterprise value-to-Ebitda multiple of 38x. Jefferies says customer demand for data centers remains strong, with the industry benefiting from a second wave of cloud-computing migration. "This provides us with some comfort around our FY 2026-2027 forecasts, when we expect CDC Ebitda to jump by more than 40% per year," Jefferies says.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

1803 ET - Morgan Stanley cuts its oil demand growth estimates for this year and next, saying that demand has continued to come in lower than expected, driven mostly by China and to a lesser extent India, the Middle East, Japan and Korea. Analysts at the firm estimate demand growth of 950,000 barrels a day for 2024, down from 1.1 million b/d, and 1.1 million b/d in 2025 instead of the previous 1.2 million b/d. They now foresee an oil market surplus of 1.3 million b/d next year versus 700,000 b/d previously. While heightened geopolitical risks are likely to continue supporting prices on concerns about supply disruptions, the underlying balance has continued to weaken, they say. The firm raises its Brent price forecast for 4Q to $80 from $75, but lowers its end-2025 estimate to $70 from $75. ([email protected])

1534 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle modestly lower in rangebound trade with market focus on Hurricane Milton that's expected to crash into the Florida Gulf coast on Wednesday as a major storm. "Hurricane Milton has become negative news for the natural gas space with the prospects of knocking out major areas of power demand throughout Florida," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. In its monthly outlook, the EIA raised its 4Q spot price estimate for Henry Hub to $2.81/mmBtu from $2.52/mmBtu. The EIA expects natural gas prices to rise in 2025 as LNG exports increase by around 2 billion cubic feet a day and U.S. consumption remains flat around 89 Bcf/d. The Nymex front month settles down 0.5% at $2.733/mmBtu. ([email protected])

1507 ET - Crude oil futures snap a five-session winning streak as expectations of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities diminish after the New York Times reported that Israel would focus on Iranian military installations in response to last week's missile barrage. Concerns about weakening global demand remain in play. The EIA in its monthly outlook cut its global consumption growth estimate for 2025 to 1.3 million barrels a day from 1.5 millon b/d, and lowered its 2025 per-barrel price estimates by around 8% to $77.59 for Brent and $73.13 for WTI. "Lower crude oil prices largely reflect a reduction for global oil demand growth in 2025," the EIA said. WTI and Brent settle down 4.6% at $73.57 and $77.18 a barrel, respectively. ([email protected])

1349 ET - Advantage Energy's dry-gas curtailment wasn't well received by the market, but it's a negligible loss and the spigot can reversed quickly when conditions improve. Shares are down 5.3% to C$9.33 on the news, but TD Cowen's Aaron Bilkoski says the reaction is misguided. "Advantage is acting rationally... these volumes can quickly be restored at negligible cost. Why give away the resource for free?" Given that demand is low at the moment, "in context of current prices we believe this is rational, prudent and should be emulated," and while the shut-ins represent a material amount of the company's current volumes, Bilkoski estimates that the effects will be minimal on near-term cash flow. ([email protected])

1150 ET - Oil futures extend their retreat as the market awaits an Israeli response to an Iranian missile attack last week. "It's the same old story. We're really not seeing any barrels come off the world market," says Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial. "The market exaggerated to the upside, and once it hasn't come to be a fact that's causing some pressure." WTI moved below the 200-day average which accelerated the selloff, he adds. "The market's hunting equilibrium somewhere around the $72.50 to $74 area, and awaiting the outcome of how is Israel is going to respond." News that Israel's defense minister plans to travel to Washington this week suggests a response will be delayed, he says. WTI is down 4.7% at $73.51 and Brent is off 4.6% at $77.15.([email protected])

1147 ET - Oil prices drop more than 4% in late afternoon trade in Europe as traders take profits after the previous session's rally and markets reduce bets on further price increases, according to analysts. Brent crude is down 4.5% a $77.28 a barrel, while WTI falls 4.7% to $73.49 a barrel. "Perceived threat to local oil infrastructure [in the Middle East] may have eased," ActivTrades' senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista says in a note to clients. "Still, with Israeli retaliation against Iran anticipated, any further escalation could quickly reignite upward momentum and drive prices higher once again." ([email protected])

1046 ET - National Bank of Canada says that while Advantage Energy's recent curtailment of gas volumes is a prudent measure against lower prices, it's still downgrading shares to sector perform from outperform. Analyst Dan Payne cites "the overhang to the cadence of returns with shut-ins of a meaningful proportion of its production," as the main reason for the ratings cut. But Payne also says his optimism is likely to be restored as gas prices seasonally improve this winter. ([email protected])

0925 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are holding near support around $2.70 with the market attentive as Hurricane Milton moves toward Florida. "A near-term trading range between about $2.70 and $3.00 is shaping up when looking across the next couple of weeks," Ritterbusch says in a note. The hurricane could have some influence on both supply and demand, the firm adds, but notes that the impact on cooling demand from storms tends to be lower this late in the season. The Nymex front month is off 1.6% at $2.702/mmBtu. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires