The Last Straw

In most fields, if you want to be in the top 1%, you generally have to perform feats that most others can’t. You need a rare, superhuman talent or a level of focus that borders on the pathological. But investing is a strange beast where the most mediocre path often leads to the most exceptional results. Well, at least if […]

The market may be closed over Easter, but there’s always some (seemingly) important news or data point that seems to be screaming for attention. In our ever-connected world, it’s a relentless, 24/7 assault on our dopamine receptors. But the reality is that most of it is just “noise”, no more nutritious than a hollow, cheap compound-chocolate Easter bunny. It looks like […]

I’ve spent a bit of time lately engaging in a losing battle with a leaky garden shed. What was supposed to be a “quick win” with a bit of silicone and a few tightened bolts has instead devolved into a multi-day saga of rusted screws, rotten wood, and a vocabulary of swear words that would make a wharfie blush. The […]

A friend of mine was giving me a bit of grief about Bitcoin the other day. In particular, the fact that I was “investing in something that is entirely intangible, abstract, and made up.” Moreover, its market value was entirely dependent on a shared delusion being effectively sustained. (Before you scroll past this, let me quickly add: this is not […]

Last week I wrote about the dangers of “resulting”, and why process is more important than outcomes. It’s something I tend to bang on about because, well, I just think it’s a key to a successful and enduring investing career. But as a Strawman member pointed out to me recently, it begs the question: what actually constitutes a “good” process? For […]

We tend to judge a decision’s quality by its outcome rather than by the information available when it was made. It’s a bias professional poker player and author Annie Duke calls “resulting.” It’s an easy mistake to make, and a dangerous one. Especially in the game of investing where it’s not uncommon to see bad decisions rewarded, and good decisions punished. […]

The term “paradigm shift” is a bit wanky, but every now and then we do genuinely come across something that offers a wholly new way of thinking about and interacting with the world. And when they come along, or even seem to be coming along, they are something worth paying attention to.  That’s because, by their very nature, they’re going […]

Zoom out on any major developed-market index and you see a steady wealth-creation engine: a polite upward march fueled by human progress. It is a phenomenon hiding in plain sight, available to anyone with the vision and patience to seize it. Of course, such a panoramic view obscures the true nature of the journey. To the investor who has actually […]

The major market indices may still be hovering near all-time highs, but below the surface, there are more than a few stocks doing it tough. As highlighted recently, it’s mainly tech stocks that are bearing the brunt of investor pessimism, with concerns over AI-driven disruption knocking some former high-flyers down a peg or two. As a group, measured by the […]