The Last Straw

Herbert Stein, an American economist, once observed that if something cannot go on forever, it will stop. That’s hardly a groundbreaking insight. But just because something is self-evident doesn’t mean it’s widely understood. Indeed, much of modern economics and finance is predicated on the belief that the future will largely mirror the past. To be fair, that’s not a terrible […]

In a recent conversation on the Excess Returns podcast, NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran talked about his latest book, “The Corporate Life Cycle“, which argues that businesses, like people, age. They start young, grow with vigor, reach middle age, and then — no matter how hard they fight it — begin to slow down. This natural cycle, he argues, should guide how […]

“10-baggers” — stocks that appreciate ten-fold in value — are the stuff of dreams. Especially when the gains are delivered in a relatively short space of time. Sure, they don’t come around too often, but they’re perhaps not as rare as you might think: according to S&P, there have been no less than 52 stocks on the ASX that have […]

Any investment that promises low risk and high returns is almost certainly a scam. It’s the financial equivalent of getting something for nothing — a fantasy that ends only in disappointment. In the real world, certainty comes at a price. And that price is lower returns. Think about it; if a largely ‘risk-free’ but high return investment were available, it would attract a […]

In a world obsessed with instant results, it’s easy to get discouraged when our efforts don’t seem to pay off right away. Hit the gym every day for a week, eat nothing but kale and quinoa, and what do you get? Sore muscles, aching limbs, and… nothing. The scale hasn’t budged, your six-pack is still in hibernation, and all that […]

When it comes to investing, mistakes are unavoidable. Even the best investors get it wrong — a lot. But here’s the thing: it’s okay to be wrong, as long as you handle it the right way. The trick is to make sure being wrong is rare, quickly admitted to, swiftly corrected, and (importantly) learned from.  Rare, Not Never No investor can […]

During the week I caught up on a podcast with Howard Marks and Morgan housel — two thinkers in the financial space I greatly admire. (Shoutout to Karmast for suggesting it!) The main topic was debt, and how it narrows the range of outcomes an investor can endure. And it showed how successful investing is less about brilliance and more about […]

Reporting season is a busy and often stressful time for investors. There’s a deluge of information to digest, synthesise and (potentially) react to. And all at a time when the broader market is responding in significant, and oftentimes unexpected ways. Well, I’m here to tell you that it doesn’t need to be this way.  The reality is that you’re never going to […]

There’s a lot of distance between broad, abstract investing concepts and placing actual trades with your hard earned. 7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy by Hamilton Helmer makes a good attempt at focusing the investor’s attention on the things that matter, and putting it in a way that feels a bit more actionable. It’s basically a book about ‘moats’, as Buffett would call them, […]