Author: Andrew Page

George Soros once said, “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” It’s the kind of thing that sounds obvious until you realize how few investors actually live by it. Most of us are obsessed with being “right” as often as possible […]

You might have heard the tale about the fund manager with a quirky hiring practice. Each time he needed a new analyst, he’d begin by taking half the resumes and — without even a glance — tossing them straight in the bin. His rationale? “I don’t hire unlucky people.” Now, while this story is almost certainly apocryphal, there’s a twisted […]

Last week, I highlighted a curious reality: despite incredible advances in tech and productivity, most people are still working as much as ever just to cover the basics. Real wages have gone flat, while the costs of essentials like housing, healthcare, and energy keep climbing. Once you see it, it’s tough to ignore. It cries out for an explanation. It’s […]

Why is it that, despite all the benefits of technology, we’re still working as much as ever to secure a decent life? I don’t have have any groundbreaking insights, but it’s fun to ponder. Plus, it’s somewhat relevant for anyone managing their own capital, particularly if you’re looking to account for any long-term, technology driven structural shifts. Here’s my take. […]

Even the most serious of investors can’t resist a bit of scandal, rumor, and gossip.  The Australian Financial Review’s coverage of Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) and WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) — specifically, the controversies relating to the (alleged) behavior of their founder-CEOs — is perhaps proof of that. It’s almost enough to make New Idea look like the Harvard Business Review in comparison. Still, […]

Paradigm-shifting innovation always has its skeptics. It’s almost a rite of passage. Virtually all of our modern technological marvels — the things we today take for granted — were initially met with plenty of Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt (FUD). Steam power, electricity, radio, the internet are all great examples, but one less discussed tech revolution deserves special mention — simply because it seems so laughable […]

Herbert Stein, an American economist, once observed that if something cannot go on forever, it will stop. That’s hardly a groundbreaking insight. But just because something is self-evident doesn’t mean it’s widely understood. Indeed, much of modern economics and finance is predicated on the belief that the future will largely mirror the past. To be fair, that’s not a terrible […]

In a recent conversation on the Excess Returns podcast, NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran talked about his latest book, “The Corporate Life Cycle“, which argues that businesses, like people, age. They start young, grow with vigor, reach middle age, and then — no matter how hard they fight it — begin to slow down. This natural cycle, he argues, should guide how […]

“10-baggers” — stocks that appreciate ten-fold in value — are the stuff of dreams. Especially when the gains are delivered in a relatively short space of time. Sure, they don’t come around too often, but they’re perhaps not as rare as you might think: according to S&P, there have been no less than 52 stocks on the ASX that have […]

Any investment that promises low risk and high returns is almost certainly a scam. It’s the financial equivalent of getting something for nothing — a fantasy that ends only in disappointment. In the real world, certainty comes at a price. And that price is lower returns. Think about it; if a largely ‘risk-free’ but high return investment were available, it would attract a […]