Author: Andrew Page

Spreadsheets are a great tool, but they tend to offer a level of certainty that’s often not justified. We’re taught to believe that more data and more intricate calculations lead to better decisions, but that’s a myth rather convincingly debunked by researchers Green and Armstrong. In their paper, “Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence,” they showed that when it comes […]

The ultimate destination for any successful enterprise is to become a dividend machine. If a company never reaches a stage where it can sustain a regular flow of cash to its owners, should it choose to do so, then it represents a total failure from a capital investment standpoint. A company may create jobs and provide products that customers desire, […]

Successful investing is ultimately about identifying activities that deliver a positive return on invested capital (ROIC). The more money you generate, and the sooner you generate it relative to every dollar put at risk, the better. Period. Full stop. End of story. This fundamental truth holds steady whether you are a business, an individual, or a government. While it is […]

From a largely agrarian third-world country, impoverished under a brutal communist regime, China has grown to be the world’s second-largest economy in just a few short generations. (Actually, it already claimed that title in 2016 if you measure things in purchasing power parity instead of GDP, which arguably, you should). Since the turn of the century, GDP has grown from […]

Navigating the hype surrounding a new technology is one of the trickier challenges we face as investors. It’s not so much about spotting the affinity scams and over-promotional rubbish; you learn to identify those quickly, especially if you’ve been bitten before. Nor is it even about sensing a technology’s legitimate potential. Eventually, if you’re paying attention, you can get a decent […]

In most fields, if you want to be in the top 1%, you generally have to perform feats that most others can’t. You need a rare, superhuman talent or a level of focus that borders on the pathological. But investing is a strange beast where the most mediocre path often leads to the most exceptional results. Well, at least if […]

The market may be closed over Easter, but there’s always some (seemingly) important news or data point that seems to be screaming for attention. In our ever-connected world, it’s a relentless, 24/7 assault on our dopamine receptors. But the reality is that most of it is just “noise”, no more nutritious than a hollow, cheap compound-chocolate Easter bunny. It looks like […]

I’ve spent a bit of time lately engaging in a losing battle with a leaky garden shed. What was supposed to be a “quick win” with a bit of silicone and a few tightened bolts has instead devolved into a multi-day saga of rusted screws, rotten wood, and a vocabulary of swear words that would make a wharfie blush. The […]

A friend of mine was giving me a bit of grief about Bitcoin the other day. In particular, the fact that I was “investing in something that is entirely intangible, abstract, and made up.” Moreover, its market value was entirely dependent on a shared delusion being effectively sustained. (Before you scroll past this, let me quickly add: this is not […]

Last week I wrote about the dangers of “resulting”, and why process is more important than outcomes. It’s something I tend to bang on about because, well, I just think it’s a key to a successful and enduring investing career. But as a Strawman member pointed out to me recently, it begs the question: what actually constitutes a “good” process? For […]