Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 09 Oct 2024 15:05:11
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0132 GMT - APA just got a fillip from the Australian Energy Regulator recommending the existing regulation regime for the South West Queensland Pipeline should remain in place. While only a draft decision at this stage, RBC Capital Markets analyst Gordon Ramsay believes the SWQP likely won't be subject to full price regulation. "Overall, we view this as good news as the market was worried that a full regulation regime would slow down development by APA of new gas pipeline capacity, particularly for the East Coast gas grid," RBC says. "In our view, these draft decisions normally become final." APA is up 3.4% to A$7.65, outperforming a 0.6% increase by the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0059 GMT - Citi research analysts aren't sure investors would be receptive if Australia-based vintner Treasury Wine showed interest in making a bid for U.S. luxury wine company Duckhorn, given that some see the Americas as a challenged market for Treasury. However, some recent market indications suggest that luxury wine could outperform, and Treasury has made acquisitions in the past. Duckhorn agreed to be bought by U.S. private equity firm Butterfly Equity for US$1.95 billion, but the deal includes a customary 45-day go-shop period in which Duckhorn could solicit acquisition proposals from third parties. Citi analysts point out that the 10.5x enterprise multiple in the Butterfly-Duckhorn deal, if applied to Treasury, implies a valuation below where Treasury stock is currently trading. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

0016 GMT - Shaw and Partners senior analyst Abraham Akra is feeling more upbeat on anti-drone company DroneShield after it received a repeat order from a U.S. government customer for its dismounted Counter-UxS systems. Akra says DroneShield's 2H revenue is now "de-risked" and that the order brings DroneShield closer to reaching the 2H revenue consensus expected by analysts. Looking ahead, Akra notes there is optimism that anti-drone legislation will pass in the U.S. Congress, increasing the size of the U.S. market for DroneShield, while conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are bringing a focus on anti-drone technology. Akra has a buy rating on DroneShield with a target price of A$1.30/share, roughly in line with recent trading at A$1.32/share, though he notes the stock is considered high risk. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

2350 GMT - Australia's government unveiled new legislation affecting how airline slots are managed at Sydney Airport, the latest effort to boost competition in an aviation sector that has long been dominated by the Qantas-Virgin Australia duopoly. The legislation calls for new civil penalties for failing to use a slot, giving the government power to compel airlines to produce information on slot usage, and allowing extra aircraft movements following major disruptions such as severe weather events. Australia's airlines have become targets for regulators and lawmakers in recent years, as consumers complained of high fares and poor customer service while airline profits soared. Qantas, for its part, said earlier this year that it welcomed changes to the slot system at Sydney Airport. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

2234 GMT - U.S. health care company Mercy Health is an example of Pro Medicus's perfect customer and the development of their relationship through to a A$98 million, eight-year contract renewal highlights the strength of Pro Medicus's business model, Jefferies says. Still, it's not enough to persuade analyst Wei Sim to change his hold call on Pro Medicus's stock. Jefferies notes Pro Medicus is trading above historical 1-year forward multiples. "We are also concerned over potential competition risk from DeepHealth OS over the medium term and need further comfort on the potential competition landscape before becoming more positive," Jefferies says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2228 GMT - Infratil's latest valuation of CDC data centers isn't shared by Jefferies, which thinks the business is worth more. Infratil last week said its 48.2% stake in CDC is now valued at between A$4.39 billion and A$5.25 billion, representing a rise of some 6.3% in three months at the midpoint. Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel estimates CDC is worth NZ$6.5 billion, which is equivalent to A$5.91 billion, based on an enterprise value-to-Ebitda multiple of 38x. Jefferies says customer demand for data centers remains strong, with the industry benefiting from a second wave of cloud-computing migration. "This provides us with some comfort around our FY 2026-2027 forecasts, when we expect CDC Ebitda to jump by more than 40% per year," Jefferies says.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2200 GMT - Australian wealth management platforms Netwealth and Hub24 appear to have enjoyed a strong start to FY 2025, according to Wilsons. It cites an aggressive rally by domestic equities in the latter half of 1Q, and expects flow activity will remain robust as investors retain an appetite for risk. "In the first five weeks of 1Q, Netwealth highlighted that Funds Under Administration had increased some A$1.6 billion since the end of June with A$1 billion through July," analyst Cameron Halkett says. "This was particularly eye-watering to us given all tracked indices in AUD were down through the quarter, suggesting like peer Hub24, Netwealth had started the quarter extremely well." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2149 GMT - Investors in Seven Group should gear up for an earnings guidance upgrade, reckons Bell Potter. Seven has signaled that its FY 2025 Ebit should grow by a 'high single digit' percent, but analyst Joseph House thinks this is conservative and expects an upgrade either at the company's annual meeting of shareholders or at its 1H result. Bell Potter is particularly upbeat about mining equipment unit WesTrac, which it believes could deliver more than 80% of Seven's Ebit growth. "As a reminder, Seven will deliver one of the strongest capital sales pipelines in over a decade," Bell Potter says. "This orderbook is reinforced by the high proportion of resource machine inventory that was pre-committed by August 2024." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2129 GMT - Beacon Lighting gets a new bull in Ord Minnett, which sees the retailer navigating current cost-of-living pressures in Australia before sales accelerate later. "Given pressure on consumer spending and subdued housing activity, Beacon Lighting's near-term growth remains modest," analyst James Casey says. "However, it is well placed to benefit from an eventual pick-up in construction activity and consumer spending." Ord Minnett forecasts total sales growth of 8.2% in FY 2026 and 8.6% in FY 2027. This is set to keep gross profit margins high, albeit slightly below recent peaks, it adds. Ord Minnett starts Beacon Lighting at buy with a A$3.35/share price target. Beacon Lighting ended Tuesday at A$2.97. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2125 GMT - Brazilian Rare Earths's latest update of its Monte Alto project in Bahia, Brazil, prompts Ord Minnett to raise its price target by 9.4% to A$7.00/share. Brazilian Rare Earths this week reported a weighted average grade for intercepts at Monte Alto of 16.4% TREO, or total rare earth oxides. "This was significantly higher than our previous estimate of 15.1% TREO, and has boosted our value of the Monte Alto operations by A$1.00/share," analyst Matthew Hope says. This uplift was partially offset by an increase to estimated exploration and evaluation costs, Ord Minnett adds. Brazilian Rare Earths ended Tuesday at A$2.60. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

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