0125 GMT - The a2 Milk Company's recent share-price rally lures a new bear. Bell Potter analyst Jonathan Snape cuts his recommendation on the milk and dairy-product supplier to sell from hold, telling clients in a note that its rally was in line with that enjoyed by China's consumer discretionary stocks. He sees no fundamental changes supporting a valuation of 17.5 times Ebitda, which he tells clients in a note represents a significant premium to global infant-formula and dairy plays. With input costs still rising and Australia-China trade flows looking soft, Bell Potter trims its target price on the stock by 1.6% to A$6.10. Shares are down 0.9% at A$6.365. ([email protected])

0034 GMT - Freeport-McMoRan is likely to face further delays to production and a large repair bill following a fire at a new smelter in Indonesia, says Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina. The smelter, construction of which was completed in June, had already been experiencing delays due to water leaks, he says. Still, a 2.3% drop in Freeport's stock on news of the smelter fire essentially wipes $1.6 billion from its market cap--too much, according to LaFemina, who reiterates a buy rating. "While delays to first production could cost circa $30 million per month (on a 100% basis) in incremental export duties, and repair costs could be material, we would expect the overall impact to be well below the $1.6 billion of underperformance in FCX shares today," he says. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0032 GMT - WEB Travel's trading update did contain some good news, albeit for accommodation-tech provider SiteMinder, according to Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed. While WEB Travel's margin outlook was the catalyst for a 36% drop in the accommodation aggregator's share price, Ahmed points out that its trading update also indicated a September pick-up in hotel bookings. This is positive for SiteMinder's transaction revenue, he tells clients in a note. Citi has a buy rating and a A$7.20 target price on SiteMinder shares, which are up 2.4% at A$6.81. ([email protected])

0019 GMT - WEB Travel loses its bull at Citi on concerns about the potential for further downgrades and earnings visibility. Analyst Samuel Seow tells clients in a note that heightened competition in the hotel wholesale market, including from a couple of industry players, appears to be behind the structural change that has driven WEB Travel's lower margin outlook. The speed with which the Australian travel-booking provider has lowered margin guidance for its WebBeds unit raises questions over the reliability of forecasts and potential risks, he adds. Citi cuts its target price 33% to A$5.55 and lowers its rating to neutral/high risk from buy. Shares are up 2.0% at A$4.62. ([email protected])

2350 GMT - An acquisition of Xref by Seek would initially be earnings dilutive but could add long-term value to the Australian job advertiser, Macquarie analysts write in a note. They point out that the reference-checking tech provider is currently loss making, but that its capabilities could enhance the trust that Seek enjoys among customers. Trust and customer usability are key drivers of Seek's price-growth strategy, they add. Macquarie raises its target price on Seek shares by 12% to A$28.00 and keep an outperform rating on the stock, which is up 0.6% at A$25.40. ([email protected])

2340 GMT - WEB Travel keeps its bull at Goldman Sachs on the prospect of continued revenue growth thanks to stable margins on higher total transaction values. Analysts at GS tell clients that they still see robust growth in the hotel wholesale market and reckon that WEB Travel's WebBeds business can grow total transaction value from A$5 billion in fiscal 2025 to A$10 billion in fiscal 2030. Noting the 36% share-price fall that followed the travel-booking provider's downgraded outlook, they say that the stock is now trading at an undemanding earnings multiple and maintain a buy rating. Target price falls 18% to A$6.70. Shares are up 1.1% at A$4.58. ([email protected])

2340 GMT - A special dividend is seen by Goldman Sachs analysts as a potential route for TPG Telecom to hand shareholders cash following the divestment of its fiber network. They tell clients in a note that paying down debt to an industry standard 1.5 times Ebitda would leave the Australian telecommunications provider with at least A$539 million in proceeds from the sale. With the transaction subject to various approvals, GS has yet to factor it into its forecasts. The investment bank has a sell rating and A$4.40 target price on the stock, which is down 2.7% at A$4.75. ([email protected])

2240 GMT - Macquarie is tipping a mixed performance among Australian lithium producers this quarterly reporting season. Analysts at the bank reckon miner IGO will produce more spodumene than the market expects--Macquarie's production estimate is 3% higher than consensus--and that its costs will normalize. They reiterate an outperform rating and A$5.60/share target on the stock, which last traded at A$5.47/share. By contrast, they expect Mineral Resources will report weaker spodumene shipments than expected--Macquarie's estimate its 3% below consensus--and higher net debt. They raise their target on the stock by 18% to A$47.00/share on improved near-term earnings and upgrades to its gas project valuation, but downgrade to neutral from outperform because of a recent rally. Mineral Resources last traded at A$50.67/share. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2220 GMT - The recent run-up in Sandfire Resources's stock prompts Wilsons Advisory analysts Sam Catalano and Ben Wood to downgrade the copper miner to market-weight from overweight. The analysts say the stock is up by roughly a third since they upgraded their rating to overweight in late July. "While we remain positively predisposed toward SFR (and to structurally strong copper markets over the medium/longer term)," the stock's value is starting to look somewhat stretched versus peers, say the analysts. They keep a target of A$9.90/share. Sandfire ended Monday at A$11.14/share, an all-time high. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2201 GMT - WEB Travel's latest update is disappointing and appears to be at odds with commentary provided by the company at its annual meeting of shareholders at the end of August, Wilsons analyst Ben Wilson says in a note. WEB Travel signaled a 1H Ebitda margin for its WebBeds business of around 44%, weakening from a margin around 50% signaled at the shareholder meeting. Wilsons says the update implies 1H Ebitda for WebBeds of some A$73.5 million, representing a 20% miss to its A$92.7 million forecast. "While revised medium-term revenue/Total Transaction Value guidance of 6.5% is a meaningful reduction from previous guidance, we believe the market may see increased risk in this metric and the potential for further reductions," Wilsons adds. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2149 GMT - The investment case for gold miner Pantoro strengthened in 1Q, says Euroz Hartleys. Pantoro extended its run of quarters with positive cashflow, achieving A$8.5 million in the period. "Sizeable low grade stockpile of 466,000 tons, giving operational flexibility for the first time, strong balance sheet of A$112.3 million in cash and US$12.5 million in debt (convertible note) to fund its almost unrivalled organic growth pipeline," says analyst Michael Scantlebury. Euroz Hartleys trims its forecast for the December quarter to 20,000 oz of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,400/oz. That represents a cut to its prior output expectation of 24,000 oz, but aligns it with Pantoro's own guidance. Euroz Hartleys rates Pantoro a speculative buy. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2240 GMT - Jefferies calls TPG Telecom's sale of its fixed-fiber network to Vocus for an enterprise value of A$5.25 billion a pretty ordinary transaction. "The multiple offered by Vocus is lower than the previous proposal and the net proceeds are A$650 million lower than the headline consideration,"analyst Roger Samuel says. Still, Jefferies expects TPG to pay a special dividend of A$1.00/share from the net proceeds. "This would leave TPG about A$2.7 billion for debt repayment, bringing down its gearing to a more palatable level of 1.3x net debt/Ebitda versus more than 3x before, but that would mean net profit would reduce by A$35 million," Jefferies says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0416 GMT - Morgan Stanley analysts will be closely watching for an update on BHP's tie-in activity for Rail Technology Programme 1, or RTP1, in the miner's 1Q FY 2025 production report Thursday. The project is a crucial part of BHP's 305-million-ton iron ore expansion. The analysts will also look for commentary on provisions related to the 2015 Samarco dam disaster. They are waiting for a broader growth strategy for BHP's copper business operations in Australia and Chile, which is expected by the end of 2024. MS has an overweight rating on BHP. It trims its target to A$47.10 from A$47.50. The stock is up 1.2% at A$43.94/share. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires