0207 GMT - BHP's update on Samarco settlement negotiations is taken positively by Morgan Stanley analyst Rahul Anand. The value of the expected settlement, which MS estimates at around US$6.55 billion, is largely in line with BHP's provision of US$6.5 billion, says Anand. He says a settlement doesn't take away the risk of litigation in other jurisdictions. Still, BHP's view is that legal cases elsewhere duplicate matters under the settlement being negotiated in Brazil, he adds. MS has an overweight rating and A$46.85 target on BHP. The stock is down 0.8% at A$42.30. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0055 GMT - Iluka's 3Q mineral sands revenue of A$232 million falls well short of Citi's A$306 million forecast. Citi's Paul McTaggart says the quarterly result is a disappointment. Sales were 26% below Citi's expectations. The miner also cautioned on seasonal weakness in 4Q and gave no update on Eneabba refinery funding, McTaggart says. Citi has a buy rating on Iluka with a A$7.30 target. Iluka is down 3.6% at A$5.975. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0046 GMT - REA Group's new bulls at J.P. Morgan are looking for a 17% on-year rise in 1Q revenue from the Australian property advertiser. Analysts Don Carducci and Michael James raise their recommendation to overweight from neutral. They say in a note that the stock remains reasonably valued given REA's growth. They see REA continuing to put distance between itself and rival Domain, pointing to the outperformance of its higher-tier products relative to Domain's. J.P. Morgan lifts its target price 26% to A$240.00. Shares are up 0.9% at A$229.68. REA is controlled by News Corp, which owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0019 GMT - REA Group's bulls at UBS are growing more confident on the Australian property advertiser's full-year volume outlook. Analysts Lucy Huang and Ailsa Lei lift their forecasts for FY 2025 growth to 3% from 2%. Still, they expect quarterly growth to slow on an on-year basis due to increasingly strong prior corresponding periods. They lift their EPS and dividend forecasts for each of the next three fiscal years by 0.8%. The pair keep an eye on the potential headwind for yields if other state capitals start to outperform the large Sydney and Melbourne markets over the remainder of FY 2025. UBS lifts its target price 13% to A$263.00 and reiterates its buy rating. Shares are up 0.7% at A$229.39. REA is controlled by News Corp., which owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0013 GMT - Australian wine exports to China are surging since Beijing lifted tariffs. Industry group Wine Australia says shipments to mainland China increased by A$604 million to A$612 million in the 12 months through September. But Jefferies analysts Michael Simotas and Naveed Fazal Bawa say it's too early to be entirely clear on the strength of Chinese demand, as the increase reflects restocking given that Australian wine was absent from the market for a few years. The Jefferies analysts are still bullish on Australia-based vintner Treasury Wine. "China demand needs to improve for TWE to deliver longer term targets," the Jefferies analysts say, "but we see little near-term risk given (the) supply shortfall." They also say weakness in China imports from other markets suggest Australia is displacing competitors. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

0006 GMT - Recent developments at Select Harvests disappoint its bull at Bell Potter, but only a little. Analyst Jonathan Snape isn't enthused by the almond grower's trading update and capital raise, but tells clients in a note that the stock is still worthy of a buy rating on the company's exposure to strengthening prices. Snape says the raise addressed a funding deficit caused by issues with a contractor, which Select Harvests believes have now been sorted. He lowers his forecasts to reflect dilution from the raise and cuts his target price 7.1% to A$4.60. Shares are down 1.8% at A$3.89. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2336 GMT - The slightly stronger skew in Amotiv's earnings toward the vehicle-accessory supplier's fiscal 2H doesn't seem to concern its bulls at Wilsons. The Australian broker's analysts tell clients in a note that Amotiv's 1Q update was broadly in line with their expectations. The implied 2H skew is due to the timing of price rises and protracted destocking by product resellers, they add. They see earnings momentum as a key ingredient in the stock's continued rerating. Wilsons keeps an overweight recommendation on the stock and lifts its target price 0.2% to A$12.71. Shares are down 2.1% at A$10.78. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2334 GMT - Could the energy demand from new data centers put Australia's net zero target at risk? Jarden thinks it might, highlighting CBRE research that suggests the development pipeline for data centers locally could more than double. Australia is already facing an energy shortfall and there are constraints on approvals for new renewable energy projects, Jarden analyst Michaela Jamison says. That means it will be challenging to support this pipeline of new data centers. "Given that commercial buildings currently comprise around 25% of Australian energy use and 10% of emissions, the significant spike could derail Australia's ambition to meet its decarbonization targets," Jarden says. Currently, data centers account for 1% of global emissions, it notes. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1927 ET - Nick Scali's bull at Wilsons isn't worried by the Australian furniture retailer's gross margin outlook, seeing compression as temporary rather than structural. Analyst Tom Camilleri tells clients in a note that he was surprised by the company's advice that its 1H local gross margin would decline by at least 240 basis points on fiscal 2024. He already anticipates easing freight rates and potentially price rises leading to a modest 2H recovery. Wilsons cuts its target price 0.6%, to A$17.30, and keeps an "overweight" rating on the stock, which is up 0.1%, at A$14.52. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2232 GMT - Metcash gets a new bear in Goldman Sachs, which sees the company losing share of the grocery market to larger rivals and competition intensifying in hardware. In a note, analyst Lisa Deng says a headwind to Metcash is the continued rise of online shopping for groceries. Woolworths, Coles and Amazon are expanding the range of products on offer while stepping up same-day delivery. That is increasingly eroding the value proposition of Metcash's IGA stores while enhancing its price disadvantage, Goldman says. In hardware, Amazon is becoming a more potent rival while Bunnings has revamped its tools range at 50 stores, Goldman adds. The bank moves to sell, from neutral, and cuts its price target by 18% to A$3.10/share. Metcash ended Monday at A$3.55. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2210 GMT - Online travel agent Webjet looks like a takeover target to Jefferies. The company, recently separated from WEB Travel, competes with the likes of Expedia, Booking Holdings and Trip.com in Australia and New Zealand. "We believe Webjet would be an appealing ANZ-centric addition for any of these, but it would be likely that competition regulator the ACCC would review," analyst John Campbell says. Also, any interest from Trip.com could prompt scrutiny from the Foreign Investment Review Board, Jefferies says. But with challenging conditions in the ANZ leisure market Jefferies doesn't see bids coming any time soon. It starts Webjet at hold.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2204 GMT - The magnitude of a decline in furniture retailer Nick Scali's margins in Australia and New Zealand surprises Citi. Nick Scali has signaled its gross margin is likely to fall 240 basis points in 1H. In a note, analyst Sam Teeger says the margin deterioration probably isn't permanent and seems to be related to freight costs rather than discounting. "We forecast ANZ 2H gross margins of 64.8%, still below 66.0% from FY 2024," as the benefits of price increases may take time to show up in Nick Scali's results. Also, with consumer confidence still weak, Nick Scali is likely to tread carefully with price rises, Citi adds. It retains a buy call on Nick Scali's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2149 GMT - Stockland's residential property sales in 1Q look healthy to Citi. Stockland reported net sales of 1,121 homes in 1Q, up 13% on year. In a note, analyst Suraj Nebhani highlights that Stockland had contracts on hand for nearly 4,000 homes at the end of September, up from 3,417 three months earlier. This compares to FY 2025 guidance of 5,300-5,700 residential settlements, which Stockland expects will be skewed toward its 2H. "We believe the 2Q and 3Q sales will be key to determine the progress against the guidance, but sales to date in 1Q are healthy," Citi says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2138 GMT - Orora's ability to buy back shares using proceeds from its sale of OPS could be constrained, reckons Citi. It thinks Orora may only be able to repurchase stock worth A$250 million to A$350 million each year. That's because of rules that limit companies to buying less than 10% of shares on issue, and the number of trading days when purchases can be made. "At these levels, however, the balance sheet may stay relatively ungeared--which may keep potential acquirers interested," analyst Samuel Seow says in a note. Citi retains a neutral call on Orora. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

0515 GMT - NextDC's bull at Citi expects the Australian data-center operator to tap investors for A$650 million in equity in 2H of fiscal 2026, although an earlier raise is possible. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients in a note that he could see the company's next raise occurring earlier than expected if it accelerates development of its expansion into Asia. He points out that NextDC's recent A$675 million raise, which removed near-term balance-sheet concerns, was a surprise. Citi raises its target price on the stock by 3.9% to A$20.00, reflecting upgrades to long-term earnings forecasts from another center in Sydney. It retains a buy rating. Shares closed up 2.5% at A$17.65.(stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0431 GMT - Shares in South32 are unlikely to add to a nearly 20% gain since the start of last month, according to Jefferies analyst Mitch Ryan. "Despite the company continuing to evolve and streamline its asset portfolio towards commodities critical for a low-carbon future during the quarter, we do not see material upside to the current share price," he says in a note. Ryan says the company's 1Q production result is largely in line with what Jefferies expected, although missed on cash generation due to a working capital build in its aluminum business. He reiterates an underperform rating and A$3.25 target on South32, which is down 0.1% at A$3.695. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires