Some quick notes from some of the brokers who cover Audinate (I think @mikebrisy was looking out for this?)
Morgan Stanley: Overweight PT $10.50
1st look at AD8 AGM - large downgrade to FY25e + guidance pulled:
• Delivered 1Q25 US$7.2m gross profit + 2Q25 expected to be broadly similar
• AD8 currently run-rating at c.US$28.8m FY25e GP, a material miss vs VA cons of c.US$42m / AD8 guide of FY25 US$ GP "marginally lower" than US $44.5m FY24 GP
• Weak 1Q25 driven by customer inventory normalisation and soft demand - although 1Q/1H weakness was expected, magnitude still surprises negatively
While AD8 is making progress on adoption (design wins +22% / interest strong on Certification programs), uncertainty is high with 1Q25 seemingly a large shortfall vs internal expectations when FY25 guide given in August
Questions we have:
• What's changed between August guide and 1Q25 result noting a seemingly large gap?
• How has customer feedback / tone changed?
• Are there increased competitive pressures?
• Cyclical weakness across verticals?
• What are the "strong demand indicators" called out?
UBS: Neutral 12m PT $12.20
Headwinds ongoing despite incremental positives
A soft 1Q25 update, with further downgrades to GP g/dance - reflecting ongoing challenges including softer demand, shorter lead times, increased inventory and slower clearance of inventories from manufacturers. While AD8 expects this period to be transitory (FY26 return to growth), uncertainty (esp. regarding Audio growth) is likely to sideline some investors in the near-term (in our view). That said, there are some incremental positives, namely 1) 2H25 new AVIO products and a premium version of Dante Virtual Scorecard expected to contribute to 2H25 earnings; 2) 1Q design wins +22% y/y; and 3) Dante certification and training programs remain strong. Our view around the strength of the business, the competitive moat and the structural thematics underpinning the story remain unchanged, however we recognise that the near-term uncertainties need to be worked through
UBS analysis
1Q was always expected to be the weakest quarter, given the need to work through the over-ordering by a large customer (UBSe Qtrly 1Q $8.8m / 2Q $11.2m / 3Q $11.5m / 4Q $11.8m). However the run-rate of 1Q25 GP (US$7.2m / A$10.6m) is expected to continue into 2Q, which we interpret as another print of US$7.2m. This implies 1H25 GP ~US$14.4m -28%/-30% vs UBSe/Cons. Assuming current FX (AUDUSD $0.67) and cost growth at 7%, this equates to 1H25 EBITDA of A$-3.2m vs UBSe of A$4.2m. If we assume a continuation of the expected 2Q25 miss vs UBSe (ie US$-3.9m vs UBSe in 2Q25), our initial analysis suggests FY25E EBITDA of A$-5.8m (vs UBSe A$12.5m). Assuming an ongoing +US$2m quarterly improvement vs original UBSe in 3Q/4Q implies FY25E EBITDA of A$3.1m
1Q25 trading update
Key Points: 1) 1Q GP US$7.2m (A$10.6m), with headwinds to continue into Q2FY25 (run rate in line with Q1). 2) 7-9% cost growth (in line with prev. g/dance) expected for FY25, below annual cost growth of 28.5% over last 3 years. 3) Growth drivers include increasing adoption of Dante tech, and launch of new AVIO adaptor products and premium version of Dante Virtual Soundboard. 4) Design wins in Q1 FY25 up 22% vs PCP. 5) Dante Certification & Training programs remain strong, with attendance >4,000 per month a contributing driver of global Dante AV installations
Valuation: $12.20 PT, Blended 2yr fwd EV/Sales to sales CAGR / DCF valuation
DISC: Held in RL & SM