Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 30 Oct 2024 14:58:12
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0322 GMT - Premier Investments needs to improve momentum at its Smiggle stationery business if its shares are to secure a material rerate, Jarden analysts say. They tell clients in a note that Premier remains a well-run, resilient business, and see a lot to like in its proposed sale of its apparel brands to department-store operator Myer. The analysts reckon that closer ties with Myer should help expand distribution of Premier's remaining Smiggle and Peter Alexander sleepwear products. But they want to see Smiggle's recent sales weakness addressed and the outcome of its expansion to the U.K. Jarden keeps a neutral rating and A$29.50 target price on Premier shares, which are down 1.8% at A$33.34. ([email protected])

0309 GMT - Xero's 1H result could include a couple of positive surprises, Jarden analysts tell clients in a note. Already bullish on the cloud-accounting software provider, they think that subscriber growth could be higher and operating-cost guidance could be lower than expected. Jarden's forecast is for the addition of 52,000 subscribers over the six months through September, which includes the removal of 150,000 idle users. Its analysts reckon that operating costs will account for 76.2% of 1H revenue, but say that guidance could be lower than the market anticipates if Xero slows hiring. Jarden raises its target price 4.9% to A$151.00 and keeps an overweight recommendation on the stock, which is down 0.6% at A$150.30. ([email protected])

0031 GMT - Credit Corp keeps its bull at Morgans after what analyst Scott Murdoch calls a solid start to its fiscal year. Murdoch calls attention to the Australian credit purchaser's observation of operational improvements in the U.S. and 10% on quarter growth in 1Q Australian cash collections. He tells clients in a note that execution on strategy in the U.S. is now needed if Credit Corp is to deliver medium-term growth. He expects U.S. cash collections to show ongoing improvement into the June half. Morgans lifts its target price 0.7% to A$20.65 and keeps an add rating on the stock, which is down 0.1% at A$17.23. ([email protected])

0008 GMT - Data#3's first-half guidance looks strong enough to justify a relief rally in the beaten-down stock, E&P analyst Olivier Coulon says. Having already touted the December half as the nadir in the Australian tech-services provider's earnings growth, he tells clients in a note that the stronger-than-expected profit outlook is a positive. That's despite much of the strength comes from higher net interest income. E&P has a positive rating and A$9.91 target price on the stock, which is up 2.75% at A$7.47. ([email protected])

2352 GMT - Reece's sales volumes look a little less rosy to Citi analyst Samuel Seow following the Australian plumbing supplies company's latest update. He reckons that Reece's flat 1Q sales suggest that underlying volumes fell on-year by a percentage in the low-to-mid single digits. More positively, prices probably rose in the low single digits, he adds. He is cautious on U.S. volumes given adverse weather and lower activity. Seow lowers his EPS forecast for FY 2025 by 5% and for FY 2026 by 6%. Citi trims its target price 3.5% to A$23.21 and keeps a neutral rating on the stock, which is down 1.0% at A$22.98. ([email protected])

2336 GMT - It will be difficult for Boss Energy shares to outperform until management updates costs at its Honeymoon uranium project in South Australia, Macquarie says. That update is likely to come in January. Macquarie now assumes A$50 million of project capex in FY 2025. "Boss provides good exposure to a rising uranium price in 2025, but the cost increase coming in January is an overhang," says Macquarie. It trims its price target by 8% to A$4.60/share and retains an outperform call on the stock. Boss Energy is down 0.6% at A$3.40. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2320 GMT - Coronado Global Resources' stock remains too cheap, but it increasingly suits metallurgical coal bulls and investors with a higher risk tolerance, Morgans says. Coronado's 3Q update put a focus on its balance sheet. Net debt in the quarter rose to US$93.9 million, from US$4.7 million at the end of June. Analyst Tom Sartor expects 4Q Ebitda to break even and net debt to rise another US$50 million-US$60 million on weaker pricing and continuing capital projects. Those balance-sheet risks contribute to Morgans lowering its price target by 24%, to A$1.40/share. Coronado is up 1.5%, at A$1.00 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2309 GMT - Coal miner Coronado Global Resources faces a dichotomy between short-term operational risks and medium-term growth potential, Jefferies says. Coronado expects first production from its underground Mammoth mine in Australia in 4Q and it output to improve over the next 12 months. Analyst Daniel Roden says a successful ramp-up of Mammoth, coupled with stable performance at the broader Curragh operation, could position Coronado's stock to rise. "However, continued operational disruptions and volatile met coal prices may limit near-term upside," Jefferies says. It retains a "buy" call on Coronado's stock following its 3Q update this week. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2304 GMT - Pilbara Minerals' decision to suspend its Ngungaju plant in response to weak lithium prices is logical and necessary, according to Jefferies. It also focuses production at the company's more efficient Pilgan plant, analyst Mitch Ryan says. Pilbara Minerals is effectively signaling that it doesn't expect lithium prices will recover until at least April. That's because it would take four months for the Ngungaju plant to be brought fully online again after it is mothballed on Dec. 1, Jefferies says. "Pilbara is removing its higher cost tons and in essence its growth volumes from the market," says Jefferies. "That said, it will take some time for the lithium market to improve and drive margin expansion." It retains a "hold" call on Pilbara Minerals. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2257 GMT - Following BlueScope Steel's profit warning on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley believes most near-term risks are now priced into its stock. So, Morgan Stanley upgrades BlueScope to equal-weight from underweight. It thinks steel demand could improve in the aftermath of the U.S. election. That view is based on business certainty, rather than the policies of the Republican and Democratic parties. "While the downgrade was disappointing, we think 1H likely represents a trough in earnings," analyst Andrew G. Scott says. BlueScope now expects 1H Ebit of A$270 million-A$310 million, representing a cut of some 25% at the midpoint of the range compared with earlier guidance. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2254 GMT - Kelsian's bull at Canaccord Genuity continues to expect a gradual rerating of the Australian transport operator's shares. Analyst Allan Franklin tells clients in a note that there was little new information to be gleaned from the company's annual general meeting, although he did detect a note of contrition over its recent performance. He still expects 9% annual Ebitda growth and sees proof of improving EPS and free cashflow as the likely drivers of a rerating. The stock offers good value following its hefty retracement so far in 2024, he adds. Canaccord Genuity keeps a buy rating and A$6.10 target price on the stock, which is at A$4.02 ahead of the open.([email protected])

0359 GMT - BlueScope Steel's profit warning wasn't entirely unexpected by RBC Capital Markets. BlueScope now expects 1H earnings before interest and tax of between A$270 million and A$310 million. The midpoint of the range represents a 25% cut to its earlier guidance. "Given its offshore peers have confirmed similar challenging trading patterns both across Asia and North America, we think it is not surprising to see BlueScope downgrade its 1H guidance today," analyst Owen Birrell says. The seaborne steel market remains in oversupply as China exports surplus material, he says. RBC expects BlueScope's earnings to bottom out in FY 2025, but efforts to cut costs will help. RBC maintains its outperform rating on BlueScope. Shares are down 0.8% at A$21.02. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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