0240 GMT - Westpac's expected shareholder returns over the next 12 months are just enough to hold off one potential bear view on the Australian bank. Morgans analyst Nathan Lead tells clients in a note that the bank's expanded share buyback, along with an anticipated 4.7% dividend yield, supports his forecast of a negative 9% total shareholder return--enough to keep Morgans' hold rating on the stock. Morgans cuts ratings on stocks if they show 10% downside. Westpac remains Lead's preferred stock in banking, a sector he believes share prices have outpaced fundamentals. Morgans lifts its target price for Westpac by 2.3% to A$27.66. Shares are down 1.6% at A$31.875. ([email protected])
0235 GMT - Barrenjoey analysts cut their recommendation on Westpac to neutral from overweight, warning that it would be a surprise if the Australian bank's technology overhaul doesn't cost more than expected. They tell clients in a note that the lender's decision to accelerate its tech simplification program will lead to a jump in expenses and increased execution risk. "Rarely do bank technology programs of this scale come in on-time or on-budget," they say. The Barrenjoey analysts are disappointed that Westpac did not declare a special dividend with its annual result, and lower their recommendation on valuation. The investment bank keeps a A$27.00 target price on the stock. Shares are down 1.4% at A$31.94. ([email protected])
0017 GMT - Westpac should have capacity to pay a special dividend in 2025 and to undertake ongoing share buybacks, Morgan Stanley analyst Richard E. Wiles writes in a note. He is surprised that Westpac did not opt to pay a special dividend alongside this week's annual result announcement. He reckons that the lender's healthy capital position should support the move over the next 12 months instead. Westpac's fiscal 2024 result was otherwise short on surprises for Wiles, who sees improving earnings momentum but also execution risks ahead. MS raises its target price 1% to A$30.00 and stays equal-weight on the stock. Shares are down 0.8% at A$32.14. ([email protected])
0016 GMT - Jefferies analysts Michael Simotas and Naveed Fazal Bawa have a positive view of the appointment of Mark van Dyck as Domino's Pizza Enterprises CEO, but they hoped the incentive package would be more demanding. Long-term incentives require 6%-15% growth in earnings per share over a three-year period, but the base year has not been disclosed. They point out the previous structure had a minimum 8% growth hurdle, and that current consensus already implies growth of around 14%. But overall, they say the new management paves the way for the company to "make the changes required to improve unit economics and restore growth." ([email protected]; Mike_Cherney)
0004 GMT - RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Toner highlights Mark van Dyck's experience in restructuring and growing a Japanese business as a positive for Domino's Pizza Enterprises, which just named van Dyck as its new CEO. Toner says van Dyck, who held roles at food services company Compass Group and Coca-Cola, provides a "solid foundation" to arrest the challenges Domino's is facing in Japan. Domino's bull Toner says van Dyck's appointment is an "opportunity for a rest" and notes that a turnaround in Japan and France is important for Domino's to execute on its longer-term growth strategy. Van Dyck is replacing longtime CEO Don Meij, who is retiring after 22 years in the role. ([email protected]; @Mike_Cherney)
2359 GMT - Tracking-app developer Life360's ongoing strength in user and subscriber growth should mean the company holds its current valuation multiple, Morgan Stanley analysts tell clients in a note. They reckon that Life360 will report the addition of another 4.9 million free users over the September quarter, 130,000 new paid subscribers, and US$2 million in advertising revenue. They see these metrics of paramount importance since they drive revenue and profitability. MS expects US$39 million in Ebitda across the whole of 2024, off revenue of US$376 million. MS lifts its target price 12% to A$23.00 and keeps an overweight rating on the stock, which is down 0.7% at A$22.13. ([email protected])
2357 GMT - New Domino's Pizza Enterprises CEO Mark van Dyck will have three things on his immediate menu, reckons Macquarie. Firstly, he will need to drive a recovery in underperforming markets. "France and Japan remain a drag on the business," Macquarie says. Van Dyck should also review the company's plans to roll out more stores. Till now, Domino's Pizza Enterprises has been guiding to flat to slightly positive net store growth in FY 2025, stepping up to 3%-4% in FY 2026. Finally, the CEO should address store profitability, Macquarie says. "Following a period of high inflation and now elevated interest rates, average franchisee profitability had deteriorated from A$130,000 in FY 2021 to A$95,000," Macquarie says. Van Dyck will take over from longtime CEO Don Meij tomorrow. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2344 GMT - Retail Food Group's acquisition of CIBO Espresso secures what the company's bull at Shaw & Partners calls a critical-mass platform for its Gloria Jeans brand in South Australia state. Analyst Larry Gandler tells clients in a note that he believes the CIBO chain is profitable despite a shortage of investment and attention from its previous owners. Rebranding the 22 CIBO stores as Gloria Jeans will expand that brand in the state. Gandler lifts his fiscal 2026 net profit forecast for RFG by 3% on CIBO revenues and synergies and thinks this is when company earnings will break out, with 20% growth. Shaw has a buy rating and A$0.10 target price on the stock, which is up 1.5% at A$0.068. ([email protected])
2343 GMT - Citi is upbeat about QBE ahead of the insurer's 3Q update on Nov. 27. All indications are that QBE's U.S. crop book should have a good year, perhaps even better than average, the bank says. "Our analysis suggests it could potentially beat QBE's projected Combined Operating Ratio for this class," analyst Nigel Pittaway says. QBE's catastrophe allowance should prove at least adequate, even if the update captures the period that included Hurricane Milton. Supportive investment yields are also likely to lead to another decent quarter for investment income, Citi says. "Whatever happens in 3Q we are still forecasting QBE's medium-term results to improve, while we see potential for capital returns in time," the bank adds. It retains a buy call on the stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2339 GMT - Morgan Stanley thinks investors should shrug off the decline in GPT's office occupancy. GPT said office occupancy was 92.0% at the end of September, from 92.4% three months earlier. Analyst Simon Chan highlights that GPT has signaled occupancy will bounce about over coming months. "The key though is that only 5% of leases are due to expire between now and December 2025," MS says. GPT maintained its annual earnings and payout guidance. MS thinks the new CEO's strategy is taking shape, but at a controlled pace. "We think investors may have to be patient, as it won't be until 2025/26 that major mandate or third-party capital wins could come to fruition," MS adds. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2335 GMT - Xero's bulls at Goldman Sachs are looking for the cloud-accounting software provider to report an 18% rise in average revenue per user at next week's first-half results announcement. They expect growth to come from the Australia-listed company's previously announced plan repricing and the retirement of inactive accounts. They tell clients in a note that they expect September-half revenue of NZ$1.025 billion. That's up 28% on a year earlier and higher than the average analyst forecast of NZ$998 million. Goldman Sachs has a buy rating and A$201.00 target price on the stock, which is down 1.5% at A$147.99. ([email protected])
2248 GMT - Westpac remains overpriced but is still seen by Citi analysts as a better bet than its rivals. They think Westpac will be the pick of Australia's four major bank stocks but stay bearish on valuation grounds. They tell clients in a note that they like the lender's improving revenue trajectory and stabilizing net-interest margins across the Australian banking industry. Westpac's benign asset quality and ongoing capital management help offset uncertainty over fiscal 2025 costs, they add. Citi raises its target price on the stock by 6.1% to A$26.25 but keeps a sell rating. Shares are at A$32.40 ahead of the open. ([email protected])
2223 GMT - Cooper Energy's share price has fallen by roughly 25% since the start of July, and Euroz Hartleys identifies three issues that investors likely want addressed. Analyst Declan Bonnick says Cooper needs to raise its production outlook for FY 2025. "The potential for a positive increase to guidance around mid-fiscal year would be viewed favorably and could drive buying from the market," Euroz Hartleys says. Reducing net debt that stood at A$279.4 million at the end of 1Q would likely get a positive response. As would certainty on Cooper's East Coast Supply Project, Euroz Hartleys says. "A Mitsui exit and entry of a new motivated JV partner to fund 50% of the preferred 3-well project is important," the bank says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2152 GMT - For investors in Australian stocks, the best U.S. election outcome is a Republican sweep of government, says Macquarie. It names James Hardie, Computershare, Treasury Wine Estates and BlueScope Steel among the likely beneficiaries, albeit a Republican sweep appears partly discounted by equities markets already. "The risks under a Republican Sweep are higher bond yields (also partly in the market already) and the negative impacts of tariffs (a headwind for ex-U.S. equities)," Macquarie says. Tariffs could be a headwind for Orora, Reliance Worldwide and Reece, it contends. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires