Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 12 Nov 2024 15:01:52
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Added a month ago

0313 GMT - Aristocrat Leisure's bulls at Macquarie welcome the announcement of the sale of its Plarium games business, noting the likely positive impact the move will have on earnings growth. Macquarie analysts point out that they expect Plarium to have contributed about 14% of Aristocrat's fiscal 2024 revenue, but only 8% of segment profit. This is prior to spending on design and development, they note. Macquarie expects Aristocrat to report a 17% increase in normalized net profit when it announces its fiscal 2024 results this week. ([email protected])

0108 GMT - Aristocrat Leisure's sale of its Palarium Global division removes Citi analysts' key bear point on the stock. The analysts welcome the sale, telling clients in a note that their FY 2025 forecasts for Aristocrat's digital gaming had been well below those of most analysts. A sale price of up to A$1.25 billion is well below even the bottom end of the range the Citi analysts had previously estimated, but they say they had always anticipated downside risk here as bookings data weakened. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$74.00 target price on the stock, which is down 0.9% at A$64.99. ([email protected])

0047 GMT - Xero's first-half result announcement could help settle a dispute between the cloud-accounting software provider's bulls and bears, Morgan Stanley analysts write in a note. They think that investor focus will fall on the Australia-listed company's full-year cost ratio guidance, which currently sits at 73%. The MS analysts explain that bulls think that this is conservative for a company lifting prices and growing subscriber numbers, while bears see costs rising from increased U.S. marketing. MS is overweight on the stock but the analysts reckon there is a strong chance of share-price volatility from this week's 1H announcement. MS has an A$170.00 target price on the stock, which is up 0.2% at A$159.96. ([email protected])

0037 GMT - NZME's dividend isn't likely to be as strong as Forsyth Barr had hoped as the New Zealand-based media company adjusts to tough advertising markets. NZME this week cut its Ebitda guidance to NZ$53 million-NZ$55 million, representing an 8% downgrade to earlier forecasts at the midpoint of the range. It called out September as a difficult month and that 3Q advertising revenue fell by 1% on year. In a note, analyst James Lindsay says the update makes "it harder for NZME to maintain the NZ$0.09/share of dividends it declared in FY 2023/FY 2022, and see a lowered chance of a capital return." Forsyth Barr now expects an annual payout of NZ$0.08/share in coming years. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0025 GMT - Aussie Broadband's attractive retail pricing and lack of outdated legacy operations earn the Australian internet provider a new bull at Citi. Analyst William Park initiates coverage of the stock with a buy rating, telling clients in a note that he sees Aussie's subscriber growth continuing to outpace the broader market. With consumers' data consumption soaring, Aussie's strong sales of higher-speed plans look positive and supportive of average-revenue-per-user growth, Park says. The company has no older assets acting as a drag on growth, he adds. Citi places a A$4.40 target price on the stock, which is up 1.4% at A$3.74. ([email protected])

2344 GMT - Domino's Pizza Enterprises remains a buy for Goldman Sachs despite any recovery in performance looking likely to start later than previously anticipated. GS analysts point out in a note to clients that new CEO Mark van Dyck is brand new to most of the business and has no fast-food experience. They now reckon that same-store sales growth of just 1.1% in fiscal 2025 before an acceleration to more than 3% in fiscal 2026. The GS analysts see his appointment as a positive and anticipate him implementing improvements to the company's system management and planning capabilities. GS lowers its target price by 2.3% to A$39.10. Shares are up 0.1% at A$30.04. ([email protected])

2341 GMT - It's shaping up to be another transition year for Incitec Pivot, Morgan Stanley says following the explosives maker's FY 2024 result. While earnings for the completed year were ahead of expectations, Incitec's guidance points to meaningful downgrades in FY 2025, MS says. It highlights that net interest and tax are likely above its own expectations and those of the market. Added to those headwinds are a larger-than-expected turnaround impact and lower forecast output from Incitec's Phosphate Hill operation. So, MS cuts its FY 2025 net profit forecast by 12% to A$300 million. "With a resolution on Fertiliser separation still some way off, we see better value elsewhere," says analyst Andrew G. Scott. MS retains an equal-weight call on Incitec's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2334 GMT - Infomedia's revenue downgrade was worse than Bell Potter was expecting, but it remains comfortable with a buy call on the stock. Infomedia now expects revenue of A$142 million-A$149 million in FY 2025, below earlier guidance of A$144 million-A$154 million. Infomedia had flagged the potential loss of SimplePart as a customer in August, and this week estimated the churn will have a A$4 million impact on annual recurring revenue. In a note, Bell Potter said this impact was higher than the A$1 million-A$2 million that it was expecting. "On a positive note, however, the company did say it still expects margins to be stable which was consistent with previous guidance," analyst Chris Savage says.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2321 GMT - Endeavour Group's stock could stay cheap for some time despite the Australian drinks and hospitality provider executing reasonably well in a tough market, Citi analyst Sam Teeger says. He flags factors including the risk of operating deleverage from cost inflation exceeding revenue growth, the potential for further gaming-machine regulation, and strategic uncertainty from a change in CEO. The company has a number of levers to drive growth and is trading at an undemanding valuation multiple, but Teeger tells clients in a note that he sees no sign of momentum from Endeavour's core business. Citi cuts its target price 17% to A$4.50 and keeps a neutral rating on the stock. Shares are down 2.4% at A$4.39. ([email protected])

2307 GMT - Bank of Queensland cannot shake its bear at Citi despite the prospect of the regional Australian lender outperforming its rivals on near-term costs. Analyst Brendan Sproules tells clients in a note that BOQ's expectation of broadly flat fiscal 2025 costs contrasts with a likely increase at its peers. He says that progress on productivity savings supports BOQ's cost outlook. Sproules also thinks that the bank's pullback from mortgage flow means it will be less affected than others by shifts in that market. However, he continues to think that management will miss fiscal 2026 targets and reiterates his sell rating. Target price stays at A$6.00. Shares are at A$6.59 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2239 GMT - DP World's takeover offer for Silk Logistics looks full and reasonable to Shaw & Partners. DP World has bid A$2.14/share in cash, enough to secure the unanimous support of Silk Logistics's board. Also, shareholders owning some 46% of stock have signaled their intention to vote in favor of a deal. Shaw had a target price of A$2.10/share on Silk Logistics prior to the deal being announced. It moves to hold, from buy, as a result. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2222 GMT - Lendlease needs to sell more assets if it's going to buy back stock, contends Citi. Lendlease said in May that it intends to repurchase shares worth up to A$500 million. Since then, Lendlease has moved to the brink of settling the A$1.06 billion sale of 12 communities to Stockland and partner Supalai Australia Holdings. That means it has buyers for A$1.9 billion of assets out of a A$4.5 billion target for disposals. Lendlease aims to sell A$2.8 billion of assets in the 12 months after beginning the program. "We believe it is reliant on progressing the balance A$900 million of sales out of the A$2.8 billion targeted initially," analyst Suraj Nebhani says of the potential buyback. Citi retains a buy call on the stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0459 GMT - Mining investors shouldn't get too down about yet another disappointing China fiscal announcement, RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker says. While latest measures are unlikely to boost China's appetite for mined commodities, officials indicated more initiatives are in the works, some of which could provide tailwinds for commodity demand, says Peker. "We would advise against being excessively pessimistic about the sector at this point," Peker says of Australia's big diversified miners, which includes BHP and Rio Tinto. "For the rest of 2024, growth is expected to strengthen as Beijing utilizes this year's allocated funds by year-end, and while 2025 is likely to be more challenging, we await additional initiatives alluded to at the press conference." ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0407 GMT - Domino's Pizza Enterprises is unlikely to boost investors' appetites until its new turnaround strategy is better understood, Morgans analyst Billy Boulton writes. Boulton says the underperforming Australian fast-food franchiser was right to change its CEO, but the move creates near-term uncertainty. Boulton notes that Mark van Dyke's track record suggests he is an ideal CEO for Domino's, but the near-term investment case has become trickier, given the lack of detail on his intentions. Morgans trims its target price by 7.5% to A$30.70 and maintains a hold rating. Shares are down 1.5% at A$30.03. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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