0206 GMT - Commonwealth Bank of Australia's 1Q update was stronger than expected but still insufficient to justify the stock's strong share-price run of the past month, Citi analyst Brendan Sproules tells clients. He maintains a sell rating on the stock, and says the lender's valuation continues to defy its capacity for earnings growth. CBA's business and home-loan lending volumes were stronger than Sproules had expected for the September quarter. Proprietary lending likely contributed to net interest margin stability, he adds. Citi has a A$91.50 target price on the stock, which is down 1.2% at A$148.40. ([email protected])
0143 GMT - Australian supermarket operator Woolworths looks primed for a year of consolidation before returning to earnings growth in fiscal 2026, Bell Potter analyst Jonathan Snape reckons. He tells clients in a note that earnings growth is likely to resume alongside growth in broader discretionary spending, which would benefit its Big W discount department stores. Snape warns that exposure to discretionary categories is likely to remain a headwind through Woolworths' current fiscal year, but will subsequently become a tailwind amid wages growth and potential interest-rate cuts. Bell Potter initiates coverage with a hold rating and A$31.75 target price. Shares are down 1.0% at A$29.27. ([email protected])
0053 GMT - Commonwealth Bank's first-quarter update points to several positive trends, according to the lender's bears at UBS. An improving revenue outlook, a 3bps on-quarter rise in net interest margin, and lower costs all look good to UBS's analysts. They tell clients in a note that credit quality also looks benign and that CBA has strong franchise momentum across both consumer and business banking. However, they maintain a sell rating on the stock and say there is better value to be had elsewhere. UBS has a A$110.00 target price on the stock, which is down 1.3% at A$148.26. ([email protected])
0042 GMT - Brickworks gets a new bull following the recent pullback in the building-materials supplier's shares. Bell Potter analyst Sam Brandwood raises his recommendation to buy from hold, telling clients that the Australian company's large earnings exposure to lower-yielding property and investment dividends means it is positioned to benefit from interest-rate cuts. He reckons that a 50bps reduction to the cash rate is equivalent to an annualized EPS upgrade of 3%-4%. The 7% share-price drop over October gives investors an opportunity to get building materials and property exposure close to the bottom of the cycle, Brandwood says. Bell Potter raises its target price 3.2% to A$32.00. Shares are up 2.7% at A$26.99. ([email protected])
0017 GMT - There's no rush to pick up NIB shares even though the stock looks inexpensive, Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway says. He tells clients in a note that he expects the stock to trade at current levels for some time as the market waits for reassurance on the impact of the health insurer's change of CEO. Investors also want evidence that NIB has claims inflation under control, he adds. Citi lowers its target price 1.5% to A$6.45 and keeps a neutral rating on the stock. Shares are down 3.7% at A$5.74. ([email protected])
2324 GMT - Macquarie is downbeat about New Zealand-based retailer Warehouse's near-term prospects. While the past three months represent one of the toughest quarters for retailers in recent memory, Warehouse has "consistently compounded macro headwinds with internal missteps and poor execution," Macquarie says. In New Zealand, household budgets are under pressure. That means trading is increasingly confined to essential and deeply discounted promotional items, Macquarie says. "With this trend expected to continue in the key December quarter, we see downside risk to 2Q revenues and margins," the bank adds. It retains a neutral call on Warehouse. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2318 GMT - Aurizon Holdings's upsized share buyback surprises Macquarie. Aurizon yesterday said it would extend its A$150 million buyback by another A$100 million, noting the decision was supported by solid free cashflow in FY 2025 so far. That cashflow includes net proceeds from the settlement of a lawsuit. As a result, Macquarie considers the additional buyback, while positive, to be a one off. It retains a neutral call on Aurizon's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2315 GMT - Health insurer NIB Holdings loses a bull in Jefferies after its latest update pointed to recent challenges in New Zealand. Jefferies downgrades NIB to hold, from buy, because the expected impact of claims inflation in FY 2025 is worse than its prior estimates. NIB yesterday said it now expects an operating loss of some A$10 million in 1H in its New Zealand business, although it remains confident of making a profit by the year end. "Resident claims inflation has been expected following pandemic lows," analyst Vanessa Thomson says "Yet the worsening New Zealand experience and the guided decline in underlying operating profit for FY 2025 are more negative than we expected." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2303 GMT - Aristocrat Leisure's annual result shows big progress by its gaming operations, Jefferies says. "7,100 net leased unit installation additions is the key to the results, in our view," analyst Kai Erman says. That's because it indicates significant momentum into 1H of FY 2025 in gaming, which is supported by industry data. "Aristocrat is clearly gaining significant share in Gaming Operations, with 3,900 2H units versus Light & Wonder's 1,600 in the same period," Jefferies says. It retains a buy call on Aristocrat's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2301 GMT - James Hardie's updated annual guidance buoys UBS somewhat. The building materials supplier now expects FY 2025 adjusted net income of at least $635 million, compared to an earlier target of $630 million-$700 million. James Hardie also anticipates volumes of at least 2.95 billion standard feet in its key North America business. In a note, analyst Lee Power says James Hardie's decision to remove the top end of its profit guidance wasn't surprising. UBS also says it is a "significant positive" that James Hardie held to the lower end of its target for volumes and marginally lifted the bottom end of its U.S. Ebit margin goal to more than 29.3%, from 29-31% before. UBS has a buy call on James Hardie's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2241 GMT - Aurizon Holdings needs a strong 2H if it's going to achieve annual guidance, reckons Citi. Aurizon continues to expect Ebitda of A$1.66 billion-A$1.74 billion in FY 2025, with consensus expectations roughly in the middle of that range. However, analyst Samuel Seow notes that Aurizon's 1H Ebitda is likely to be lower than a year earlier. Citi now expects earnings from Aurizon's Bulk business to decline year over year, although Grain railing should improve from here. "There may also be possibility of new business wins, implied into the strong 2H given the step up," Citi says. "However, given the heavy skew required, we remain Neutral." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2149 GMT - Paladin Energy's 29% share-price drop on Tuesday followed the scaling back of expectations for uranium production from the restarted Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia. But it may also reflect unease over its M&A ambitions. In a note, Citi says the sharp sell off of Paladin shares could complicate the miner's deal to acquire Canada's Fission Uranium for more than $800 million. "Fission shareholders could consider this as a material adverse event and look to walk away given Paladin's all scrip offer," analyst Samuel Schubert says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0551 GMT - Xero's bull at Citi expects the cloud-accounting software provider to get close to fulfilling the so-called rule-of-40 when it reports first-half results this week. Analyst Siraj Ahmed reiterates his buy call ahead of the Australia-listed company's announcement, tipping its free cash flow margin and revenue growth to total 39 on the rule-of-40 scale. He reckons that operating costs will account for 73% of operating income, which is in line with Xero's full-year guidance. Ahmed still thinks Xero could get this down to 72% over the full fiscal year despite an increase in hiring activity. Citi raises its target price 17% to A$185.00. Shares closed 0.95% higher at A$161.14. ([email protected])
(END) Dow Jones Newswires